Estratégia de negociação em par ppt

Escritores proativos de redação.
Ensaios personalizados, dissertações personalizadas, teses, propostas de pesquisa, artigos científicos, resenhas de livros / filmes, artigos de conteúdo.
ajuda de ensaio.
Fracking e Gas Development-Argumentative ensaios.
& # 8211; as duas primeiras páginas eu preciso de você para desenvolver argumentos contra fracking e desenvolvimento de gás não precisa ser complicado, argumento básico.
& # 8211; A última página é sobre algo diferente que não se relaciona com as duas primeiras páginas.
é sobre as relações entre o desempenho do organismo e as variáveis ​​ambientais. Eu vou fazer o upload da folha de excel para esta parte.
Artigo de Pesquisa.
Type of service: Writing from scratch Tipo de trabalho: Papel pesquisa Prazo de Entrega: 11 Abr, 07:19 AM.
cada cicuta tem 5 dados medidos, cada um contém A, B, t0 e C.
total 15, está escrito na mão e também anexado.
O cálculo desta hora não é fornecido.
então o escritor U254213 desta vez precisa seguir o que está escrito em formato de relatório de laboratório para fazer o seguinte.
1) faça o cálculo.
2) digite o relatório.
Relatório de laboratório.
*** USE QUAISQUER QUANTIDADES DE FONTES, APENAS REFERÊNCIA ELAS ***
Campo magnético.
Tipo de serviço: Escrevendo do zero Tipo de trabalho: Ensaio (qualquer tipo) Prazo: 15 Abr, 07:45 PM.
1 campo magnético devido a uma corrente.
2 Força entre duas correntes paralelas.
4 Campo de um dipolo magnético.
Além disso, se você tiver algum assunto de interesse sob este campo, pode ir com ele, apenas.
Certifique-se de escrever no mesmo tópico.
o motor térmico & amp; segunda lei da termodinâmica.
Tipo de serviço: Escrita do zero Tipo de trabalho: Papel para pesquisa Prazo: 15 Abr, 05:33 PM.
Detalhes do papel: Papel:
The Heat Engine & amp; Segunda lei da termodinâmica: Escreva um artigo discutindo a segunda lei da termodinâmica. Uma maneira de declarar a segunda lei é através do motor térmico, portanto, como exemplo, também discutiremos o efeito da criação do motor térmico sobre a população da Terra e do meio ambiente. Três páginas, espaço único. Também deve incluir referências apropriadas. Trabalhos sem trabalho citados não serão aceitos. Você precisará apresentar este documento para toda a turma.
Resumo do Fluxo de Águas Subterrâneas.
Tipo de serviço: Escrever do zero Tipo de trabalho: Edição de trabalhos Prazo final: 21 de abril, 23:12.
Detalhes do papel: Eu tenho 6 papel espaçamento simples. Eu gostaria de editá-lo e aumentá-lo para 8 folhas de espaço simples.
amarrando todos os seus resumos juntos. estruturação do papel.
Eu preciso de um resumo.
Capítulo de dissertação & # 8211; Discussão.
1. (Teoria Estatística Clássica) Discuta como o cálculo do coeficiente de variação (relação entre o desvio padrão e a média) pode ser aplicado na análise de variação orçamentária e que modelos de orçamento é a aplicação mais bem aplicada.
2. (Teoria da decisão) Discuta como a análise de sensibilidade pode ser utilizada no controle de custos usando exemplos quando os valores de medida objetivos preventivos ou detetives não estão disponíveis.
Planilha de Custo de Capital.
Módulo MBA 520 Oito planilhas de custo de capital.
A atribuição neste módulo baseia-se na ideia de previsão e teoria de avaliação dos Capítulos 6 e 7 no Módulo 6, avaliando uma empresa através de cálculos usando dados reais. Isso fortalecerá sua recomendação no projeto final, fornecendo os meios para fornecer evidências de uma análise financeira. Esta tarefa vale um total de 100 pontos. Veja a distribuição de pontos listada em cada questão.
Revise as perguntas abaixo e use os dados fornecidos na pergunta para resolver o cálculo. Ao trabalhar com cada equação, pense em onde os dados da sua empresa podem ser encontrados para fazer os mesmos cálculos e como as informações desses cálculos podem informar suas recomendações para o projeto final. Use o quadro de discussão não graduado neste módulo para fazer perguntas aos seus colegas para informar suas respostas às perguntas abaixo. Essa atribuição deve ser enviada como um arquivo do Excel.
(12,5 pontos) Qual é a taxa de juros de mercado da dívida da XYZ e seu componente de custo da dívida?
Taxa de Juro do Mercado =
Custo do estoque preferido
(12,5 pontos) Qual é o custo estimado da XYZ para o patrimônio comum usando a abordagem CAPM?
Custo Estimado do Capital Principal =
(12,5 pontos) Qual é o custo estimado do patrimônio comum usando a abordagem DCF?
Custo Estimado do Capital Principal =
(12,5 pontos) Qual é a estimativa do rendimento do título mais o risco para o custo de capital comum da XYZ?
(12,5 pontos) A XYZ estima que, se emitir novas ações ordinárias, o custo de flotação será de 15%. O XYZ incorpora os custos de flotação na abordagem do DCF. Qual é o custo estimado de ações ordinárias emitidas recentemente, considerando o custo de flotação?
Custo do estoque comum recém-emitido.
(12,5 pontos) Qual é o custo total de capital (WACC) da XYZ, ou média ponderada? Ignore os custos de flutuação.
Perspectivas sobre identidade de gênero.
Perspectivas sobre identidade de gênero.
Esta tarefa desafia você a examinar perspectivas teóricas sobre identidade de gênero e compará-las ao seu próprio desenvolvimento de identidade de gênero. Você usará suas experiências pessoais para responder a perguntas sobre identidade e explorar quaisquer conflitos ou afirmações relacionadas se concorda ou discorda da precisão da teoria escolhida.
Utilizando os recursos da biblioteca on-line da Universidade Argosy e a Internet, pesquise teorias de desenvolvimento de gênero (como Teoria do Aprendizado Social, Teoria do Desenvolvimento Cognitivo, Teoria do Esquema de Gênero, Teoria da Identidade de Gênero Gigligan e Transcendência de Gênero) e perspectivas atuais sobre o papel da natureza e nutrir o desenvolvimento da identidade de gênero que pode ajudar a explicar seu próprio desenvolvimento de identidade de gênero. Responda as seguintes questões.
Descreva a teoria de gênero que você escolheu. Analise a precisão da interpretação da teoria e como ela se relaciona com você - você se encaixa no molde? Explique como a identidade de gênero pode ter mudado nas duas ou três gerações passadas (isto é, seus pais e avós) com a mudança na dinâmica familiar (divórcio, pais solteiros, mulheres na força de trabalho, Título IX, etc.). Reflita sobre como sua identidade de gênero afeta a maneira como você se comunica com pessoas do mesmo sexo, sexo diferente etc.
Inclua uma página de referência no formato APA de seus recursos de pesquisa.
Escreva um ensaio de 2 a 3 páginas em formato Word. Aplique os padrões APA para escrever estilo ao seu trabalho.
Tarefa de ensaio-MBA-ATRIBUIÇÃO DE MÓDULO DE GERENCIAMENTO DE CAPITAL DE TRABALHO.
MENSAGEM DE MÓDULO DE GERENCIAMENTO DE CAPITAL DE TRABALHO DE MBA.
Tópico: Escolha uma empresa de seu interesse ou a empresa para a qual você trabalha e desenvolva o Relatório de Política de Capital de Giro. Em qualquer caso, você deve ter acesso às informações necessárias da empresa.
Prazo: A tarefa deve ser enviada até 17/10/2016). Nenhuma inscrição tardia será aceita. Este é um trabalho individual. Limite de palavras: 4000 palavras (± 10%). Elementos: tamanho da fonte 12pt; Estilo da fonte: Times New Roman, Parágrafo: espaçamento duplo. Referenciação: Referencia todo o material apropriadamente usando o sistema de referência de Harvard. Adicione uma lista de referência no final do script Siga a estrutura sugerida que aparece abaixo.
Relatório de Política de Capital de Giro: Estrutura recomendada.

Estratégia de negociação em par ppt
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Estratégia de negociação em par ppt
Uma maneira testada pelo tempo de olhar para o futuro e ter pistas sobre quais mudanças psicológicas podem estar se aproximando.
Diretor administrativo e criador do AstroEcon.
NOVAS INFORMAÇÕES DE CONTATO.
Gráficos de futuros S & amp; P.
SEÇÃO DE NEGOCIAÇÃO DE CRIPTO.
Se você quiser enviar uma gratificação para mim por serviços prestados como você faria um barman FAVOR.
Arquivo de posts do AstroEcon.
Postes pré-eleitorais.
Julho a setembro.
De junho a julho de 2015.
De abril a junho de 2015.
De janeiro a abril de 2015 posts.
NOVAS INFORMAÇÕES DE CONTATO.
Todo o conteúdo deste site está protegido por direitos autorais de Robert Hitt a partir desta data. Eu pretendo fazer valer esse copyright. Se alguém quiser me citar, peça minha permissão usando o endereço de e-mail acima.
Mais à direita desta página é o que estou disposto a dizer. Estou muito consciente de que dizer demais é mais útil para os bandidos do que para os poucos bons comerciantes espirituosos que deixaram, então a COY é a maneira que escrevo nos dias de hoje.
Meu propósito aqui é de natureza espiritual agora. Eu trabalho de graça e não peço mais nada para um leitor considerar o que está postado aqui. Fiz o que pude para não ser algum tipo de guru e não gosto de ser pretensioso se puder evitá-lo. Eu sei que o meu estilo de escrita é um pouco "grosseiro" mas eu não conheço nenhuma maneira de me expressar, mas por favor me perdoe. OH e eu tenho uma grande necessidade de um editor, então me perdoe por isso também.
Husa. 5 de janeiro de 1996.
btw este site é OPINIÃO.
OBSERVAÇÃO Eu não faço Facebook, eu me recuso a logar.
Se você quiser me amigo, faça da maneira antiga usando e-mail.
Clique em REFRESH para o último post.
A vista do Monte Nebo.
Este é o título que utilizei para as atualizações diárias do site público AstroEcon de 2006 até 2009.
O Monte Nebo é um lugar bíblico, mas também é um lugar real onde moro nas montanhas.
Esta página é um serviço público gratuito, assim como os arquivos.
O novo link de seção de criptografia orientado para negociação está na coluna da esquerda. A seção de negociação especial se tornará um serviço de assinante no futuro próximo.
Os arquivos do AstroEcon de 1998 até o presente têm material que precisa ser publicado. Eu tirei os arquivos off line em 2013-2014 para protegê-los e a mim mesmo do assédio. Fervendo este corpo de trabalho para baixo para uma forma de livros / livros apresentável é uma enorme quantidade de trabalho. O primeiro que eu vou lançar é um livro de astro atualizado que foi apresentado pela primeira vez no site em 2000 e refeito em 2009. Isso é algo que eu não vejo na selva virtual e sem ele as pessoas mais novas que foram A volta por causa da excitação criptográfica tem pouca ideia do que estou falando sem o contexto de um livro e por que vejo as coisas como eu faço. Espero conseguir algo pronto em breve.
O S & P caiu durante a noite para abaixo do nível de parada de 2685 para os compradores recentes de mergulho. Também um lugar que faz um urso querer voltar para o jogo sell vol .. O astro não é tão baixinho no momento, então eu não estou vendo o potencial da queda ainda. Entre no período pós-Lua Cheia desde o início de março até o final de março e então pode acontecer se os padrões ainda persistirem até lá. Meados de março até o final do mês é problemático se já existe um plano de script para que cronograma para travá-lo e parece-me mesmo desde o ano passado que tem que com o pagamento de impostos ..
O nível de preços em que uma onda de colisão poderia ser gerada.
Pense em maio de 2010 .. A mesma situação técnica vulnerável então é a baixa de 2/14 agora em 2626 .. Quebre abaixo desse nível da maneira que maio de 2010 fez e se torna um momento de Waddle e Reed. (A W & R vendeu uma cobertura completa de todo o portfólio até o limite de um milhão de contratos de S & P com a quebra de suporte de maio de 2010 quebrando o padrão de preço já frágil em torno de 1000 pontos Dow em alguns minutos.)
A reprodução de áudio dessa ação de preço em maio de 2010.
Robbie Parker Jr.
Começando uma carreira de crise agindo mais cedo estes dias?
Ainda por cima, os outros alunos apresentados no noticiário da CBS (e fundadores do movimento #NeverAgain) são todos extremistas abertamente esquerdistas que parecem ter visões messiânicas de si mesmos e estão muito felizes em atacar Donald Trump, para o prazer de Hollywood e da imprensa do establishment.
É quase como se fosse uma conspiração gigante de esquerda ou algo assim.
BTW o S & amp; P está fora de 45 pontos da sexta-feira alta .. Ele está negociando entre o nível de 62% e 50% retrace com um viés para ir mais baixo com base no padrão técnico. O nível 2685 é o meu alvo mínimo no qual acredito que as paradas estejam localizadas.
Deve ser terça-feira.
O S & P recuou após a cunha de sexta-feira até 2750. Se os ursos foram snipes isso seria uma caçada de snipe AKA parar de correr para o lado negativo. As paradas estão nos baixos subindo então as caudas em 2685 e 2625 são onde as paradas estão localizadas.
BTC é para cima mas não é confirmado por outro que LTC .. O assim chamado comércio de baleia informado como uns 400 milhão longo em aos míni a 6000 é interessante porque nós não sabemos quem que era .. LOL .. provavelmente Goldman .. BTC está bem com DC desde que as pessoas certas estejam lucrando. A resistência está no recuo de 50% em 12800 e logo abaixo disso na média móvel de 89. Observar a ação do preço em níveis de resistência é um relato sobre a OMS é longo.
0care ..o elefante na sala.
Tendo alguma experiência com a máfia médica desde 2014, posso dizer que é a fraude de todas as fraudes. É quase como eles sabem o quanto eles podem roubar antes da mão. Isso é um roubo de trilhões de dólares, mas feito de uma forma que é improvável que um paciente o desafie. Minha experiência recente estava sendo faturada de tal maneira que era impossível determinar quais eram as acusações e tinha que esperar 7 meses para obter uma repartição simples da conta. Quando eu desafiei a conta imediatamente na primeira conta que recebi, recebi uma carta de um advogado do estado que declarou que eu assinei um formulário de consentimento, portanto, eu devia o dinheiro. Lição aprendida na próxima vez que eu não sei assinar nada. Meu nome é John Doe.
BTC atinge 38% de retorno.
Um operador de swing teria tido uma meta de preço lá para ter lucro em um aumento para esse nível. A psicologia de ondas elliott de uma onda é surpresa e que termina quando se torna convincente. Então a negação vem como negação de onda dois. Vamos ver. BTC caiu mais de mil fora desse nível de retração.
Um feriado de segunda-feira para ações dos EUA. O S & P também retrocedeu para um alvo 2750 a 50% da onda de colapso da lua de sangue. Se vai haver algo vindo disso, será expresso pelos mercados e pelo contexto externo. Os feriados apenas nos EUA têm efeitos discrepantes, como o corte no preço do petróleo em um feriado de ação de graças de 2015.
Que atmosfera tóxica. Quadrado de Marte Netuno fedendo a junção.
O retrace no S & amp; P precisou subir até os 62% de retorno para completar um retrace padrão. Eu pensei que seria no início da semana, mas o Shooter cronometrou sua ação para dar uma mão aos touros e acabou por atingir a marca na sexta-feira no final do pregão. Ao longo do caminho, várias resistências óbvias, mas apenas representaram um padrão de cunha ascendente.
As contagens de onda de Elliott são subjetivas. Eles sempre são claros em retrospectiva, mas estão sempre sujeitos a contagens alternativas no momento. Se a contagem mencionada acima estiver correta, a onda de pânico TRREE será iniciada a partir do fechamento na sexta-feira. A onda três abaixo seria tipicamente 1,6 vezes a distância da onda um do topo da onda DOIS. Grosso modo, seria uma meta de preço de 450 pontos abaixo do fechamento de sexta-feira.
O preço interno move-se na onda três para baixo são 5 ondas com a chamada onda de choque sendo a 3 de TRÊS ondas de movimento de pânico abaixo da onda anterior UM baixo.
E se a represa se abrir muitos anos antes.
e se não há lugar no morro. Vejo você no lado escuro da lua.
Quando isso seria provável? Nós temos uma lua cheia altamente emotiva no início de março à frente. Olhando para o que está presente naquela época eu vejo o feriado chamado Purim, que é baseado no calendário lunar e vai humm. Faça sua própria pesquisa de que não é incomum que algo ruim aconteça relacionado a esse feriado. Eu costumava chamar de estação de sacrifício humano porque o feriado celebra um massacre de persas milênios atrás.
Ok, deixe-me ver .. Mueller desperdiça dinheiro do contribuinte com a coisa russa e tudo o que ele tem são 13 trolls russos?
Ahemm .. OK, então trolls são um incômodo, certo? Que tal os trolls do hasbra? ou Cass Sunstien exército de obamaniods .. Como sobre a mudança climática trolls. TODOS aqueles estavam tendo "influência" nas mentes dos eleitores dos EUA.
Oh, e enquanto estamos nisso, como as numerosas falsas bandeiras e brocas foram ao vivo. Algumas foram provadas como falsas como Sandy Hook e Boston. Então, quando as prisões estão chegando?
Enviado por um leitor.
Muito muito interessante ler. Como eu vejo nos últimos dias, é uma grande perturbação na força em que estamos desde o eclipse lunar de 1/31 e, pelo que sei, ainda não acabou.
Lado escuro da Lua.
E tudo o que você despeja.
e todo mundo que você luta.
e tudo o que é AGORA e tudo o que está para vir e tudo o que se foi.
e tudo sob o sol está afinado, mas o sol é eclipsado pela lua.
BTW a única vez que todo o lado escuro da lua é iluminado está em um eclipse solar.
O mercado quebrou ontem de manhã. 50 pontos abaixo em 3 minutos. Como um guarda-redes de hóquei, o bastão de alimentação salvou-o e o turno da rodada durou apenas 2 horas. O resto do dia foram os ursos cobrindo para salvar suas vidas. O S & P foi o suficiente no final que o nível de perigo de uma onda de choque é minimizado pelo menos por agora.
A história idêntica na sede da NSA para uma em 2015, com dois caras vestidos de arrasto estava no noticiário cedo AM. Eu pensei que era dia da marmota, quando li isso no AM. Isso foi MUITO SUSPEITO .. ​​Eu pensei que era uma notícia falsa postada postada por um puxador de fio de mercado.
A posição no mercado de ontem foi muito semelhante a quando ocorreu o tiroteio no VT. Pronto para mergulhar. Então, como mágica, um grande mergulho de nariz foi cancelado pelo jogo HEY LOOK OVER THERE. Algos são treinados para comprar quando há sangue na rua, você não sabe.
Eles levaram o atirador vivo. Ele estava em psicoterapia? Ele era um jihadista? O FBI sabia sobre o garoto? Eles entraram em contato com ele porque ele estava postando merda no facebook? Eles foderam com a cabeça?
A posição de mercado está agora em tato como alvo no nível de 62%, mas muito mais cedo do que seria com o dia de negociação de 28 após a alta em mente, mas não muito mudou, exceto uma compressão da linha do tempo como está agora. Interessante o padrão de cunha agora aponta para o retorno de 78% agora. veja o gráfico na página do gráfico.
Um pouco demais no dia dos namorados.
Diversão e jogos antes das 9:30 abrem com uma viagem de ida e volta de 100 pontos em 2 horas.
BTC quebra mais.
Quero observar que depois que uma compactação de preço no BTC e outra criptografia uma quebra maior fora do intervalo compactado ocorreu este AM. Isso é outra falsa? Ou esta é uma manifestação que será prejudicada por vendedores indiretos? Assistindo para ver.
O S & P derivou mais alto durante a noite. Não confiando no movimento considerando o astro entrando no final da semana. Ser neutro também é uma posição.
Uma nota geopolítica .. Parece que Netanyahu está prestes a ser preso. ou alguma coisa. Talvez os israelenses tenham motivos para torcer, seria bom ver aquele idiota mostrando a porta. de uma cadeia.
O movimento de negação da onda B e o teste dos baixos no S & P terminaram na sexta-feira e uma boa chance de rally é a onda inicial de uma onda c de um rally retrace da ABC .. O rally desde sexta-feira seria um onda um de C ontem na conjunção Lua Plutão .. Um pouco curto da minha expectativa de bater 2700, mas vou levá-lo ..
Os próximos dias terão o eclipse solar na quarta-feira e a praça Neptuno de Marte na quinta-feira. Isso é um astro que eu não vejo como otimista e, especialmente, o eclipse solar que geralmente está em ou perto de uma baixa nos preços .. Chame o que eu espero ser a onda 2 abaixo da onda para ser uma baixa mais alta. Eclipses solares são uma energia calma e, neste caso, eu esperaria uma queda para alta de 2500s ou um movimento um pouco menor ao longo dos próximos dias. A baixa tem que ser suficiente para assustar as mãos mais fracas, com medo de outra onda de colisão.
O padrão maior que eu vejo como ideal é chamado de cunha subindo no início de março em algum lugar acima do nível 2750 e marcando o nível de 62%. Se houver uma grande quebra, ela virá de uma alta no início de março, idealmente em torno do 28º dia de negociação após a alta de fevereiro. A angústia máxima seria em torno dos idos de março.
O que aconteceu desde o eclipse lunar é o livro de Elliot onda .. Parecia há anos que o regulador do movimento de preços foi um fator não, mas como eu já vi antes, quando os níveis emocionais subir naturezas maneira de fazer as coisas retorna. Eu poderia acrescentar que o astro também entra em ação ao mesmo tempo e os preços ressoam muito melhor para os aspectos específicos quando o calor está ligado.
Eu joguei no crypto por agora. É provável que eu volte a um grande interesse quando vejo Urano se mudar para Touro em maio. Minha opinião é que o pessoal da Crypto e a criptografia em si ainda não estão prontos para o horário nobre. Se for para negociar, é melhor negociar onde há liquidez máxima e o S & amp; P é onde está. Quando as coisas amadurecem em criptografia eu vejo os preços subindo drasticamente, especialmente nos períodos espectrativos mais astro em 2019. Minha leitura é que a tendência para o HODL é tão forte e existe tal incerteza devido à interferência política que o Crypto ainda não é muito negociável. Apenas Hodling é um trade de posição e alocar uma pequena porcentagem a essa estratégia está realmente indo com o fluxo, mas deve ser limitado a 10% de liquidez. Ah e que mesmo 10% em metais como um hedge contra o USD ..
Conjunção Lua Saturno.
Aí está. Quase na hora exata daquela conjunção, NO DOMINGO, dia 11. Óbvio o suficiente para quem tem uma mente clara sobre o que é um acidente e o que não é por causa do momento. Óbvio quem é o criminoso também devo acrescentar. O mesmo de antes. Sem novidades.
Então, hoje nós temos Trump anunciando seus planos de infraestrutura na ordem de 1,5 trilhão. Lua e Plutão estão juntos hoje às três da tarde. Este é um astro que tende a fazer com que a ganância corra solta por um dia e, quando um mercado está descendo, ele tende a causar uma parada nas paradas dos ursos. Eu acho que o destino são os altos nos 50% de retorno no S & P 2700. Apenas um palpite. um educado para o que vale a pena. Poderia ser um fracasso também porque Trump está em uma posição perigosa agora e seus inimigos querem ver uma grande queda em seu relógio. Negociar S & amp; Ps agora requer experiência que a maioria das pessoas não possui.
Os mesmos oligarcas que projetaram a corrida até os máximos são os mesmos que precipitaram o acidente de trem pós-eclipse lunar e o colapso atual do mercado. Ah, e o acidente de 2008 chegou a você por aquelas mesmas garras também. Você pode imaginar o que eu sinto como ver isso e ter um entendimento de que a astrologia tem sido usada para cronometrar coisas como uma ferramenta de script. Isso não é especulação que conheço em primeira mão, porque eu era um dos que era muito aberto sobre o funcionamento interno da astrologia no período anterior a 911. Eu também fui o único astrólogo que os chamou depois do 911 e pagou um preço por isso. Meu comportamento aqui por anos é dizer o que eu quero quando eu quiser, em vez de dar muitos detalhes do astro de antemão que seriam úteis para eles. .
Eu estou cuidadosamente considerando até que ponto do espaço criptográfico eu quero ir, porque se eu começar a cobrar as pessoas pelo trabalho lá, serei obrigado a oferecer os detalhes para as pessoas erradas. Estar confortável como um americano livre da dívida aposentado (muito raro) Eu não tenho certeza como estressado estou disposto a tornar-se para satisfazer esse grupo de principalmente novatos para negociação e não revelar informações que eu não quero nas mãos erradas. A única ameaça para o meu bem-estar é o monstro ganância médica industrial obamacare e indo para a batalha novamente, que requer um dia de trabalho de 12 horas para ser até meus antigos padrões é tão insalubre como qualquer coisa que eu poderia fazer.
Eu acho que voltar para a minha antiga rotina aqui é o caminho a seguir.
Segunda-feira é um dia de Plutão.
Eu inventei esse termo nos velhos tempos. É um dia em que Plutão está ativo no astro mix e por natureza é uma energia de jogo de poder. Segunda-feira é um dia de Plutão porque a Lua estará em conjunção com Plutão no final do pregão, por volta das 3 da tarde (EST).
Isso é parar de gastar energia. Da Boyz em ação. Quanto ao S & P, a baixa de sexta-feira foi um empurrão forte na psicologia bearish .. O maior desvanecimento da última década Dennis Gartman foi all in no lado curto de acordo com hedge Zero. Esse cara tem um histórico quase perfeito de estar errado e isso requer uma habilidade perversa para ser consistente.
Por isso, espero uma forte manifestação na segunda-feira. Por nenhuma outra razão, do que muitos estão do outro lado desse comércio. Quando Gartman se tornar otimista, prestarei atenção aos cenários pessimistas, mas duvido que seja na segunda-feira. "Quando Dennis Gartman fala, todos ouvem"
O imprudente aspecto de 135 graus de Marte Urano se parece com o ataque É Real em seu vizinho. Enquanto escrevo este post no AM, a conjunção Lua Saturno é exata e, até agora, não há acontecimento trágico que seja bom para mim.
Eu assisti a velha versão clássica de Júlio César na noite passada e OH MEU grande quantidade de material na primeira metade que uma pessoa anita Trump consideraria raciocinar por ação. Todos os tipos de justificação para a traição .. Nós todos sabemos que este jogo é necessário ler na Universidade, então você tem que também. Uma maneira de parar um enredo é lançar uma lanterna nele, por isso pode ser uma boa ideia espalhar a notícia sobre esse potencial. Uma coisa que eu sei de estar no movimento da verdade é que os gráficos podem ser interrompidos.
BTW uma das razões pelas quais eu tinha tanta certeza de que Trump ganharia foi porque o antigo mito da batalha de Perseu e Medusa parecia o modelo para o drama eleitoral. Perseus sempre ganha nessa história. Post eleição o maior erro que Trump fez é desvio do enredo, porque Perses teria usado o olhar medusa mortal como sua própria arma .. Eu postei esta foto no site no dia após a eleição.
Minha opinião é que nossa história humana é uma repetição daquelas histórias com diferentes "atores". e mudou a configuração. Tenho certeza de que as peças de Shakespeare são baseadas em histórias de arquétipos mais antigos também. Mais e mais jogamos nossos jogos como se fosse um ciclo ou algo assim. Os "deuses" estão entretidos.
10 AM NOTE .. Eu postei o acima às 8 da manhã. Então realmente houve um trágico evento às 9 da manhã com a conjunção Lua Saturno. Um avião de Moscou para o Cazaquistão (de todos os lugares) cai do céu de 6000 pés. OHHHHH No contexto da situação de ontem que teve um Is Real f16 abatido por um russo S-200 e um piloto morto. O velho olho por olho em jogo? Nuf disse.
Bannon interpreta Brutus?
A atual atmosfera em DC é tão ruim quanto o senado romano na peça Júlio César. Parece que uma história mítica está acontecendo em DC. Há quase o mesmo nível de traição da peça e lembre-se da peça da Broadway que está sendo pré-eleitoral com o personagem Trump sendo morto. Apenas quem usaria um roteiro de uma peça clássica para planejar um golpe? Indagando mentes yada yada ..
Bannon parece ser o tipo perfeito lançado no papel de Brutus para mim. Mas talvez alguém ainda mais perto de Trump atualmente vá para o papel. SEUS TUDO FORAM SCRIPTED PARECE.
À medida que rastejamos na linha do tempo até março, é importante observar a confirmação nos eventos e MEMES. Se eu fosse Trump, eu poderia agir agora e começar a prender pessoas, mesmo que isso exigiria algum tipo de lei marcial. A traição já foi comprovadamente comprometida, então esperar apenas torna as chances de algo ainda pior do que as probabilidades de traição. Trunfos JOB como comandante em chefe é proteger o povo americano dos inimigos estrangeiros e domésticos.
O colapso do mercado de ações foi propositadamente temporizado, atrasando-o até agora, mas deveria ter acontecido quando Obama deixou o cargo. Se tivesse ocorrido no final de 2016 - no início de 2017, a culpa teria caído sobre ele. Teria sido muito óbvio, então, que a economia estava preparada para cair, daí a demora. O atraso criou um problema de várias ordens de magnitude para o povo americano.
Essa charada é tão óbvia para mim porque não em lugares altos? Trump tem um trígono Sun Jupiter em seu natal que é tão protetor quanto qualquer aspecto pode ser. Se de alguma forma ele é capaz, por sorte ou habilidade, de domar a conspiração traidora, eu começarei a ter alguns pensamentos de resultado positivo sobre os próximos anos, mas não estou nessa mentalidade até ver o que ele faz com o baralho empilhado contra ele e o Povo americano no próximo mês. Onde estão os generais que o rodeiam. Jogos de guerra muito ocupados para prestar atenção? Yikes
Neste fim de semana estou de olho em algum incidente relacionado com as Olimpíadas. O domingo em particular é problemático com a conjunção Lua Saturno no início do AM EST. O que me preocupa não é apenas aquele breve aspecto lunar mensal, mas o Marte 135 até Urano (imprudência) também é exato no domingo. Quadratura de Marte para Netuno (truques sujos) que segue é exata no dia 16 de fevereiro. Oh eo eclipse solar no dia 15 está em jogo também, mas é uma energia de imagem mais grande que tem um efeito a longo prazo. A energia quadrada de Marte Netuno tem um potencial para algum tipo de infecção que pode ser uma coisa bio-terrorista.
Se o domingo não for um evento, ficarei feliz com isso, mas isso é apenas um dia a menos da configuração prejudicial em potencial. Os mercados estão muito sobrecarregados com o stress e isso significa que os passos são levados em conta apenas na tomada de pressupostos apenas sobre medidas técnicas.
Em um mundo sem confiança.
Não há limite máximo teórico para o valor de bitcoins em uma carteira, mas se assumirmos que cada carteira garantida por esse disco contém tanto quanto a maior carteira hoje (180.000 BTC), esse único disco poderia “conter” todos os bitcoins existentes e permanecer com menos de 0,5% Assumindo um teto de mercado de bitcoin de aproximadamente US $ 190 bilhões (até o final de janeiro), esse disco seria o equivalente a: 95% das 4.583 toneladas de ouro em Fort Knox, ou 1.344 superpetroleiros de petróleo. & quot;
O que foi mais interessante, no entanto, foi a observação do Fed, em que condições os criptos não só poderiam coincidir, mas substituir a moeda dominante. A resposta: o bitcoin dominaria os métodos de pagamento em um mundo distópico, em outras palavras, um método "descentralizado". mundo, em que não há mais fé - ou confiança - nos bancos centrais.
ARTIGO COMPLETO LEITURA DO VALOR.
Eu assisti o desfile ontem em minha cidade natal de longe em TeeVee nacional .. Que visão maravilhosa. Eu tenho 12 anos e estou com o pesadelo dos 64 Phillies quando eu estava na pequena liga ... Todos nós sabemos que, como a razão para a nossa péssima reputação como fãs enlouquecidos, o seu time estava com 8 jogos com 10 para jogar e em seguida, vendo a equipe sair 9 derrotas consecutivas e não chegar à série mundial. Meio que tem um efeito psicológico de múltiplas gerações. Muitas histórias de pessoas trazendo mortos entes queridos cinzas em uma jarra para a parada ontem que não podia ver isto quando vivo. Foi realmente um grande negócio.
Às vezes, o esporte é maior que a vida. Havia talvez um milhão ou dois lá.
That was a quick wipe any smile off a bulls face day.. The B Wave of two that is. So fast it is a bit questionable if the Monday low will hold. But in essence that is the function of that particular sub wave wave to scare the bejeesus out of the longs ..If the low holds the the C wave of two rally will commence and the rise up to 2750 at the 62% level in the early March area of the timeline 28 trading days from the high is still in the cards.
This view is based on watching over a long period of time in what most would consider "normal" market conditions. Maybe there is a new normal?? One where for the first time in history a huge crash like 87 comes right off the top with speed enough to catch everyone without any retacement.. If there is a move below the Monday low on the futures it is clearly a 5 waves down printed on the initial drop off the top which is very bearish sign for later in the year.
Stepping back and looking at the context of this I see Trump speech and the train wreck "accident and the new fed chair with the obvious evidence of Hillary/obama treason and well it all looks very purposeful indeed this situation. Is this a "pull it" demolition of the US market? Going out of bounds below the Monday low too quickly would be a sign of that.
BTW if you are going to see the action for what it is it is a MUST to use the ES mini price chart because a huge part of the price action is going on in the London and Asia trading hours.
Ideal day for a B wave of TWO low.
That would be Feb. 11th.
Moon Saturn conjunction. A monthly nasty energy location. Sometimes is associated with a deadly event ..natural or otherwise. Sun Saturn Jupiter exact square semi square aspect. Mars 135 to Uranus panic energy. A few days from the solar eclipse and ideal time to have a test of the 2600 level in the S&P based on an incident over the weekend.. Olympics related??
From the horse's mouth.
Goldman Sachs is 1/5th owner of the federal reserve. Ya know . THEM.. those who who print our debt based money supply out of your promises to pay.. Interesting to read some hints on what is on their mind about the cryptos the only real threat to their slave money system.. Looks to me THEY are into owning crypto just not letting you know which ones because YOU are just Muppets who are easily bullied into serving their interests.
Blockchain in a centralized form owned by the Fed is the perfection of slavery. Especially so if it is part of a carbon credit money system .. Keep this in mind as you invest in crytpo.. Bait is the chance at freedom. The trap is the switch over to something that looks good but is centralized.
The denial rally.
In Elliott wave terms the so called crash was a wave ONE down.. The element of SURPRISE. once surprise is OH NO by the majority it is over and then the retracement rally wave TWO up which is denial phase. Nothing to see here.. Once denial becomes the majority mindset wave TWO is then over (has to be a lower high) .. Then the real danger of a crash which can only happen when surprise/denial turns into a seriously nasty realization that the PANIC phase has arrived. This sequence is a TEMPLATE not a prediction.
So here we are in the wave two rally. DENIAL.. I see wave A of that TWO was accomplished yesterday with a retrace up to the 50% level and as of yesterdays high we are in wave B down of wave TWO. Target about 2600 which is enough down movement to take the denial of the table even if briefly. During this phase SOME stocks will make a lower low than Monday. The FANGS appear to be where that would be but not limited to FANGS.
This all takes time to work out.. the 28 day rule . The target for full denial is early March.
The IDES OF MARCH is the location of the impulse wave down barring a PTB hail Mary false flag event to change investor mindset.. Think Virginia Tech which was timed to wipe any thought of selling stawks out of the public mindset. That incident came right when the post 28th day down stroke was due.
The S&P futures snapped back to the 50% retrace yesterday.. almost to the tic. Very typical price action as the shorts have to cover by BUYING the dip to make a profit. Is this over? Not if history has anything to do with the future.
A test of the lows soon is what will make bulls confident. I figure that will will be at 2600 level which is the regular trading hours low. This should be some time near the solar eclipse on Feb 15 if history holds up.
A successful test there allows for more serious buying to boost prices back up to the 62% retrace level at 2750 and THAT is where the bull either breaks out of the fence higher or the panic selloff begins.
In simple terms it would be an ABC correction wave TWO up denial wave. Before the impulse WAVE THREE down crash if the rally fails. Impulse wave THREE down would be typically 1.6 times wave ONE measured from the wave TWO high. Aprox 2000- 2200 level ..
The 28 day rule applies.. If the retrace has not succeeded to break above the 62% retrace level either before or at the 28 day the market it is bombs away for prices. NOTE this pattern is historic as in it has done it repeatedly with 29 and 87 as prime examples. There have been times this pattern has failed too.
The Feb. - April 2007 revelation of sub prime disaster also had a crash move happen from the then all time high and it retraced back to the 62% retrace level on the 28th day and then VT happened on a MONDAY MORNING at 8:30AM before the open of regular trading. The shock the monkey move worked to distract attention long enough that April day to take prices safely above the danger level. Six months later the market had STILL not reflected the sub prime reality and the underlying problem grew by 100%.
So we need to game plan it here to tell IF the PTB are wanting a real crash or will save the day again with some dastardly deed timed to save the day. Right now I favor them letting Trump roast in a real crash. The crash lows would be due within a day of the Ides of March. A friend pointed out that the Broadway play which included a trump assassination portrayal was based on Shakespeare's JULIUS CAESAR.
The current episode started on the Blood moon on January 31st. Nuf said.
Here is a technical chart of the situation. Suitable for framing HAHAHAHA.
The solar eclipse lands on Feb 15th.
The 28th trading day after the 1/26 high is MARCH 6th.
The 34th trading day after the 1/26 high is MARCH 16th.
This is your market on dope.
Read all about it.
Wow that is some VXX chart.. Those who have been feeding at the fed volatility selling tough have been sent to the meat house. My target for a correction at S&P 2600 was hit in regular trading yesterday and then the short volitility ETFs when boom overnight and if things play out today there should be an open at or near the 2600 yesterdays closing low. If things go as I see it the tail on today's futures chart will be at . drum roll.. THE VEGAS LOW ..
I could blame all this mahem on Satans team the pats losing but .
The Blood moon eclipse is the actual reason. If you go back and check I have been pointing to that date for months as the top and a 10% correction would result. I kinda figured it would take a week more to get to 2600 but that is OK with me.
This is a setup. The memo.. The train crash. The market crash.
The first day on the job for the new fed guy.
As I write this at 7:25 AM the spoos are trading above 2600.
The stars misplaced.
Just a little change in climate.
From Hendrix song UP FROM THE SKIES.. This was written in the late 1960s well before any actual evidence of the event 12800 years ago was known. BTW the reference to climate change in the song is the first one I saw.. Did Algore hijack that term from this song?
I have lived here before.
The days of ice.
And of course this is why.
I'm so concerned.
And I come back to find.
The stars misplaced.
And the smell of a world.
A smell of a world.
Yeah well, maybe, ehm.
Maybe it's just a. change of climate.
Well I can dig it.
I can dig it baby.
I just want to see.
I'd just like to have a ringside seat.
I wanna know about the new Mother Earth.
I wanna hear and see everything.
I wanna hear and see everything.
Wow that was fun.
ya ya ya ya.. The long suffering eagles fans have a winner. Very big deal . Kinda like the classic myths about the unlikely hero slaying the dragon. I knew last off season when Foles was signed as a backup that he would win the superbowl (and MVP) and become the most unlikely sports hero in Philly since General Lafayette. Don't know why I knew it back then it was simply just and right that it be that way.
Oh and now that I look at the so called real world the blood moon crash in stocks continues.
Moon at 15 Libra for big game.
The USA has Saturn at 15 degrees of Libra, Saturn is exalted in Libra and 15 degrees of Libra is the tipping point of the scales. For Saturn it does not get any better than that. I have the exact Saturn at 15 libra in my natal myself.. An ultra keen sense of fairness and a desire to right wrongs and also a sense that things work out fairly in the long run.
So My team the eagles is in the superbowl tonight and are playing the New England cheaters. Caught TWICE and one of those was the last time they played the eagles in the 2005 superbowl. Seems to me universe has some righting of wrongs to take care of tonight. Ball bounces and odd things should be seen. I think I speak for all the long suffering iggles fans that it is about time for justice to be done..
Blood moon rising.
Weeks ago I speculated the blood moon would be a toppy energy and that a 87 type of crash would look immanent. So far so good on that yesterday was not actually a crash.. Could be a full blown crash like 87 ahead BUT that was a type of correction when markets had an ability to move out of a predetermined range. The events around the blood moon were as orchestrated as the sit and stand and clap seal show was in DC during the SOTU. Cmon man a trash truck on the train tracks the next day after the SOTU?? LOL and the Dow being down 666.. Oh that is a scary message eh?
I think whatever happens in the next few trading days is centrally planned. A 10% correction would not even put a dent in the bull market and would be advertised as a "healthy" correção. As of now I see that limited correction as the more likely course the market takes.
The astro in general involving the slow planets aspects is not ripe for a major crash YET. The coming off the top action we saw is not where crashes occur they come on after a retracement rally fails to get prices above a safe level. The danger of a deep low ala 87 starts 28 trading days AFTER the high if it is going to be an 87 event. So March EIGHTH is 28 trading days. In 29 and 87 the crash lows occurred on the 34th trading day. Which would be drum roll the day after THE IDES OF MARCH the 15th.
So looking at the astro from the 28th trading day to the 34th after the high we have MARCH 10th with a mercury Saturn square and moon conjunct Saturn. Keep in mind that on that date the sun is at 19 Pisces the so called birthday of bin laden and at the exact opposite degree that 911 occurred on at 19 Virgo.
Another interesting astro fun fact is Mars will be at 29 Sagittarius on March 16th which is at the galactic core.. a spot in the zodiac that has been associated with GOLD market turns. Let me point out that a crash of any consequence is going to cause the fed to go all in on a QE rescue regardless of inflation so that spells a major reason to own gold. With the cryptos being cut off from an exit in fiat currency there is a strong chance that GOLD is the only escape route as things stand at the moment. Maybe a gold backed coin convertible into phiz that actually works?
Maybe time to read up on Shakespeare play Julius Cesar.
Its what she said. "Block trump with a crash."
The bond market is in a crash zone now. IF A = C that means something like 120ish on the T bond chart.
Trump gonna get Jimmy Cartered?
BTW at 1.6 times wave A wave C would be down to 110 or lower. Hello normal as in 6% yield.
Turn of a friendly card.
An oldie but goody.
"The Turn Of A Friendly Card"
And a wheel in perpetual motion.
And they follow the races and pay out the gains.
With no show of an outward emotion.
For God knows up till now it's been hard.
But the game never ends when your whole world depends.
On the turn of a friendly card.
No the game never ends when your whole world depends.
On the turn of a friendly card.
The wave C of the big ABC correction is on in crypto.. The end of it will be seen when there is a capitulation low and not very long from now it would seem. The solar eclipse on the 14th of February is about right. US stocks are in a correction now too that appears to be tracing out an 87 type of correction.. We should know today as that would be a hard down day leaving everyone in limbo over the weekend waiting for the PPT to clean things up and save all the buy and holders.. Those who buy the dip with no plan and think they are genius meet MR MARKET.. When that group bails out it is over and the real dip presents itself. Again we have an eclipse situation in play now and lows tend to come around the solar eclipse.. the 14th.
This juncture coming as it does today on a critical day for markets and the day of the FISA release today is not coincidental. The most recent actual market correction was in August of 2015 with a 10% correction culminating over a weekend. Could be this is the standard model for corrections now in the post 2011 cheaters market.
The so called deep state is willing to crash everything to protect itself. It is ONLY their future that matters and yes they hate Americans for the freedom. Fingers point to the obvious as usual. Isn't it a coincidence the flu is running rampant this year at the same time?
Nearly impossible odds.
Just hours after the blood moon eclipse was exact yesterday a train carrying 200 republican members of congress was on a train to Greenbrier (50 miles from Mt Nebo) and was somehow crashed into a loaded trash truck on the track. The possibility this was an "accident" is close to trillions to one. This was less than a day after the SOTU.. AND DRUM ROLL A DAY BEFORE THE RELEASE OF THE MEMO.
With the exception of Alex Jones I saw not a hint of suspicion that in media that something bigger than an "accident' occurred. Trey Gowdy resigns just after that. MY GOD is everyone asleep?
Could you imagine what today would be like had whatever the plot was succeeded?
This smells of scopolamine the jungle plant drug that takes a persons free will away. Of course we will never know because who do you think will "investigate" this so called accident. Oh and not very far from Charlottesville Va too I might add.
This also smells of desperation from the deep state to avoid the consequences of what is already in motion.
Oh and this rhymes with Virginia Tech (darpa U) in 2007 not that far away from the scene.. A story out that was lost in the moment was an Asian was caught there with semi auto with ammo about the same time. VERY CREEPY AREA over there in western Virginia.
Saw it.. was kinda impressed it was more presidential than I thought it would be. Could not help myself in feeling relief that we were not watching Hillary doing the second year in her SOFU speech. Seeing all the sad faced dems gave me a tickle. I suspect one line relayed the YOUR FIRED element coming on very quickly as in weeks aimed at the deep state operatives. Hoping for Sessions to be included.
Crypto had a very bad day yesterday with the TETHER meme doing the damage. In case you don't know about tether it is offshore creation of USD proxy (fake) dollars used by traders to jump out of crypto to safety in some exchanges. The accusation is USDT is not backed with anything?? haha how charade you are. Creating money as debt with nothing to back it but promises to pay is only allowed for the right people. Tether does make it possible to cash out of the Crytpo into a not taxable transaction space and is a good idea if executed properly.
The rally if you want to call it that was a false start buy signal seen on some coins generated in the last few days by news that ROBINHOOD a millennial targeted brokerage is going to allow crypto trading in a few weeks .. Only in 5 states but including California. News out is they signed up a million new accounts.. As I see it the millennial are getting ramped up to assert their will on the system. Good luck with that from a babyboomer/activist who has spent a lifetime fighting the "man". The deep state now runs a risk of really pissing them off at the same level I saw in my own generation resulting in social chaos. The especially powerful Pluto in Scorpio's born from 84 to 95 are not going to take a slap in the face lying down.. They don't get mad they get even. I am certain that is the group of Americans who swung the vote to Trump in 2016. They are watching carefully now as to who is for or against them. I can attest the Pluto in Scorpios are not the snowflakes that were born with Pluto in Libra from 1971 till the mid 80s.
What could go wrong??
Hello "Mc D style health care.. Get yourself a dollar meal of health served up by a robot in a meat suit.
These guys are the three stooges of oligarchy.
They cited the "ballooning costs of health care" as the inspiration for their decision.
Just how fat is a fat cow. Oh and how long will it be that Amazon cloud will be used to determine your habits and thus your eligibility to have any healthcare at all.
The Q-Anon thing just gets more and more interesting.
Oh and about the SOTU tonight at 9:00. Trump (6/14/1946) speaks less than a day before the now obviously emotive lunar eclipse. The eclipse lands at 11 Leo Aquarius and Trumps PLUTO is at 11 Leo. Based on the astro tonight is all about a show of power. He has the ammunition with the FBI etc and lets get some popcorn and see what he does with it. Trump has pulled punches before and if he does it is not going to be entertaining to his MAGA followers.
Meanwhile the stock market seems poised to reflect the real swamp draining in store. Keep in mind the swamp has been at least been fetid since HWB in 1988 so that is a lot of entrenched criminals in high places. I don't expect them to react in a nice walk away mode but to approach their doom in violent fashion.
Seems packed with "events" on the economic calendar.. SOTU.. Then the superbowl on Sunday.. The solar eclipse on the 14th is actually the calm part of the equation.
This from veterans today. Not liking the "security" outfit G4S. I'm seeing VT as something to be wary of in the end Gordon Duff and some others there turned out to be deep state tools in my opin.. Seems to go a long way around the bend to framing trump if something does happen.
Just paying attention here.
Dennis Kuciinch.. 10/8/1946.. a bit left for my taste but then again. Would have been a very interesting country if the 2008 election was Ron Paul vs Kucinich. I was all for him as the dem candidate in 2008 but was very unhappy when he caved on Obamacare in 2009 being the swing vote in the house for that.. At the time I figured the blackmail machine had got to him.
His natal sun is exactly on the USA natal Saturn at 14 Libra.. This is a sign that maybe he can restore the SPIRIT OF THE LAW that was written into the constitution. I'm getting the feeling that when the astrological three ring circus ends at the end of 2019 and the Saturn Pluto conjunction is exact in January 2020 that a very formidable Dem candidate is going to emerge. I'm thinking it may be Kucinich. But first he has to win the Ohio Governor in 2018.
I'm interested to see what Trump does when he has lost congress this year.. I'm also interested to see what Trump does when challenged by a REAL candidate and statesman who is capable of doing what Sanders could not which is defeat the Demonic element in the Demon-cratic party. I will be all in with him IF he has a platform that includes undoing what he enabled in 2009. He might be the only one who can do that.
I see Kucinich as a package deal with his wife being an anti Hillary superstar that could make it possible.
300 and 18 years ago this happened.
Here is a chart adjusted for eastern time. The natives that lived in Cascadia had plenty of stories about this event to share with Lewis and Clark many moons later. The exact time of the quake was a known because the Japanese kept records of the tsunami..
NOTE the grand cross Mars Pluto Moon and Sun at 7-10 fixed signs and there is also a Jupiter Saturn semi square present with a mercury retro station.
There is a Jupiter Saturn semi square at present and the supermoon eclipse next week on the 31st is at 11 fixed signs. NOT A PREDICTION just an observation.
Plunge protection team.. Not a household name anymore. This "group" was created by. gov/fed after the 1987 crash to stop another meltdown . Er stop another meltdown that affects the wrong people..
The rally since 2009 was fueled by the PERCEPTION that the greedspan/bernak/yelling PUT would backstop all the stupid human tricks. and has succeeded to a point where markets are not markets but some sort of bizarre wealth generating mechanism.
So the trick as of now is to determine what is an acceptable correction or not. The last one was in August 2015 and hit 10% in overnight trading but in US trading hours only 6ish % .. I am on record already that a 10% correction is very likely either near term or in the fall. The lunar eclipse on the 31st and a fed meeting and the SOTU and it looks like that could be a the opportunity to see the PPT in action .. to stress test the markets to see how much stress it will take to go the edge of the abyss but without falling in. The one in 2015 was a Friday - Monday deal.
TEN PERCENT used to be a normal correction and they happened a few times a year. A dose of reality which resets the risk premium.
The trick then is to time a low because once the PPT succeeds at stopping the decline at the 10% level it will reset the "equation" and allow a full on next leg up. Just based on the outer planets aspects it would be a leg that will likely run into early 2019 with some very speculative and INFLATIONARY energy for most of the year. I think the rally in stocks will lag metal and crytpo gains but then again I am "talking my book" as I do have a bias about what is money and what is fake money. I think the underperformance of stocks vs alternatives will grow while a nominal rally in stocks will hide that from the unwary. Gold has suffered for 5 years and who is going to sell now?? Same in crytpo that has a 50% decline in the books. They used to call that the STRONG HANDS.
The other one.. The LT US bond is where things get tricky. I see a new QE in the works to buy them to keep them from falling too much as those funny money promises start to become unpopular outside of the recycling plant in RICHmond Virgina. Post 2019 I see a very important set of aspects. Jupiter Saturn.. Saturn Pluto ..Jupiter Pluto conjunctions. Call it an astrological gauntlet.. Think Jimmy Carter suffering through the highest real interest rates in the last . I have no idea maybe in US history.
BofAML Bull & Bear indicator has given 11 sell signals since 2002; hit ratio = 11/11; average equity peak-to-trough drop following 3 months = 12%
Rhitt in line with my observations.
Dollar down stocks up.. Just like Venezuela in the most green stock market in the world.. Stocks are perceived to be a hedge AGAINST CURRENCY DEVALUATION..
This works until it does not as an investment strategy. Considering the debt load on the economy a perception of interest rates raising to above the inflation rate meaning a REAL INTEREST RATE is the turn in the sea of green to a tsunami of red.
The S&P is looking ripe for a short.. No sell signal yet but not unreasonable to build a hedge incrementally right now with MARCH OPEX in mind.
It's feeling like it's 1987.
An eclipse pair is coming.. Lunar on 1/31 and solar on 2/14.
These eclipses are prone to reset equations and if that be the case it could be a minicrashy setup with a 10% correction but with the fear factor of the 87 crash 3 times bigger than a simple 10% crashy episode.
A 10% correction in the S&P would be about 300 points.
10% corrections were not uncommon until central planning made them verboten. 10% corrections were in the old days a refreshing cold shower that befitted strong hands and astute traders who avoided them and bought the crash lows. One of these ten %ers is likely this year and the near term is more likely than the fall "crash season"
The reality of truth.
From the people who did the movie Thrive. Really good and especially so for millennials who have been violated so much by the false reality we live in but they were BORN into. A horse sized red pill here.
Aya its not just for hippies anymore.
Ron Paul and Gerald Celente.
God what a fun interview to watch.. Celente on FIRE.. Hahahaha Gerald has the same Mars in Sag I have the same degree too.. Gotta love him. Ron can hardly keep from bursting out laughing. I wonder what Paul is going to say at Jeff Berwicks anarchist convention in a few weeks??
SPX a bit overbought.
Well not a bit a LOT.. the most in a long while. Does that mean it is going to crash?? Nope.. But it does mean that when it does correct it should be a good trade.
I'm going to start to cover the SPX more considering we have an eclipse pair coming up and that has been an astrological play over the years worth considering. Im watching for the spoos to drop below the upper bollinger 1.6 band line AND have some divergent action on the MACD on this 144 minute bar chart.. A correction starting about now would tend to play out in front of the paying taxes period.
Crypto is testing the recent low in the next day or three. If one was inclined to buy the dip we have that about now. Stocks on the other hand are on an opposite situation being at peak everything ..
There is a lunar and solar eclipse coming in the next month that may be the table turn on recent trading situation. Eclipse piars and crash type conditions are correlated so maybe today is a good day to pla attention.
Underdogs at home?? Ya right. 38 to 7.. Against the best defense in the NFL.
Foles was brilliant against the Vikings, going 26-33-352. He threw 3 TD passes and didn’t turn the ball over. Foles did this against the #1 defense in the league with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. And he made it look easy.
Still waking up..
OH the gov shut down?? Huhh.
I'm going to visit my grandson over the weekend.. Will be a bit distracted Sunday night with the biggest game in Philly since the 1980 championship game.. LOL I was there in person for that one with minus 20 wind-chill and it was great.. The iggles beat the cowboys as an underdog playing at home to go the superbowl. Been a long time since they won it all.. almost a lifetime I was 8 years old in 1960 when they won well before superbowl one. This year they are home dogs once again like 1980. Ya it is a big deal and no I will not be up early Monday morning.
Bleeding green football hooligans that we are. Guess the writer of the below link is not a fan or lives anywhere near Philly.. Probably a Dallas fan LOL..
Might want to look at this gold chart over the weekend. Very long term play but then again it pays to think way ahead. astroecon/xxgoldweekly. gif.
Nice winter here.. A pic worth a 1000 words. Right out my front window The pic is the other side of the holler.. My place is a double wide but I get to see a great house framed like a post card I did not have to pay for haha. . astroecon/bobhouse. jpg.
First they ignore you.
Then they laugh at you.. then they fight you.. THEN YOU WIN.. Gandhi.
The debate is getting testy.. The laughing at you part is on in spades..
Decentralized crypto is not going away just the same as Gandhi would not go away. The issue is the price and the convertibility to fiat. Given an actual choice . as in freedom .. who would want debt money over something that is not designed to go go down in value so cronies can pay off loans easier..
THE FIGHT YOU PART is coming. Kinda big retrace was in play yesterday.. Kinda funny the CBOE original future contract expired yesterday eh? Kinda funny that the two crash waves in the last month occurred when the moon was in Capricorn. Oh and the next moon in Capricorn is Feb 11th which is a date duly noted here already.
THE FIGHT YOU PART seems to me to be in April when there is an attempt to tax people who are not subject to it because they are not in USD.
The THEN YOU WIN part is still a long way away I think it is revolving around the triple conjunction of Jupiter Saturn and Pluto out in 2020. Right now we are in the phase where it is IMPERATIVE to learn how to defend yourselves by learning TRADING and stop being a sitting duck. Ya know like making money the old fashioned way by earning it. The current crytpo exchanges are already obsolete and run by geeks who are mostly HODL and would not know a bear even in a zoo.
Is it real or Memorex.
Posted in the don't panic lighten up section of SOTT.
Actually not funny because I was a 11 11 11 observer due to the Calleman mayan count and that is really close to the start up of CERN.
NOTE that was when it seemed to many of us truthers reality somehow became a past tense idea.
Lions and Tigers and Bears.
Wow that was some fast shifting of sentiment.. The carnage in BTC and crypto was big.. Couple of 100K billions went out the window yesterday there .. but the S&P did something too as it traced out a KEY REVERSAL day yesterday. A ton of "investors" had the realization that they were really traders and were unprepared for that.. Most who were rather happy gloating about how smart they were found out all about MR MARKET. Mr Market is the enemy of those who don't know what is going on and stand around waiting for him to shower them with wealth. Mr market loves informed and experienced traders and rewards them. Mr market is the decider on who wins. Same as it ever was.
There have been violations of support and a shifting of Ewave counts.. the astro last weekend was Sun Venus conjunction in a square to Uranus.. CHANGING VALUATIONS theme and now you see astro at work. The good part (silver lining) is the crytpos are responding to astro aspects and that makes it a lot more predictable than the zombie equity markets that have been mindfucked to the point of insanity. BTW wait for the equity market mavens to start to gloat and then expect them to deal with Mr market as well. If you have bearish trade tendencies you are getting in a good position now of getting ready to eat.
I will be updating the new technical situation in the crypto section this am. BE SURE TO READ MY POST FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THERE.
CRYPTO TRADING SECTION.
One guy decided to steal 440 k of stellar lumens from a so called SECURE wallet yesterday and resulted in 150 billion in lost market cap last night. Carnage was across the board.
ETH triggered the trailing stop at 1220 that I noted on the chart page in the crypto section yesterday morning. The ETH long was from 775 to stopped out at 1220.. For now it is wait and see as far as ANY long trades in crypto. I am not a dip buyer I am a continuation signal buyer.
Trapped in a long position with no exit?? I'm working on a way to help readers to trade on a much more professional platform that allows for hard stops and short selling . give me a few days and I will give details.
Venus squared Uranus over last weekend.
This was actually Venus Sun conjunction squared to Uranus. By definition that says CHANGING VALUATIONS as it applies to market psychology. If I was an old school astro pundit I would be calling it a turn date over the weekend. I'm not into astro being called that so because that is also the way people thought of markets over a decade ago. I see CHANGE and VALUATION and let that be the theme.
ETH is making a divergent new high.
BTC is making a nearly or just completed wave E of FOUR correction low since December high.
US equity is acting like a drunk driver running every light at high speed.
Bond are hanging ten over a rather mean looking potential to finally reflect reality.
Gold looks like that pretty girl in the corner waiting for you to talk to her.
So ya trend changes are in the air. The weekend Mercury Saturn conjunction is another factor called worry but it seemed to concentrate in manifesting in this eras version of duck and cover. Ya ya it was a fat finger on the wrong button. Think of the mental damage to kids who had no idea they could die in a minute.
About that BTC chart .. The Dec high had a the characteristics of a wave three high.. An over shoot in parabolic run.. Then the correction after as wave FOUR since has the psychology of confusion. "why is it not still going up. The confusion has to be discouraging to be meaningful and I think we are at that part now which is a sign the next move will be up into the capitulation phase going up to a new high lets say high enough to accomplish it at 22K more or less. Timing of the start of that rally to new highs is the tricky part. Nibbling now makes sense but there is NO BUY SIGNAL YET on my indicators.
The next astro of significance is the lunar eclipse at months end that should bring in a highly emotional wave of traders acting on impulse so the next wave up to capitulation should be associated with that time frame. Watch for a huge hubris meme to develop in those who have been right and nay sayers to be silent. .
HAHAHAHAHA.. If you are going to attempt to trade on this info please be advised that trading just on astro without sound technical reasons to back up your opinion is not wise. Be a good trader and use the tools you have available and keep in mind the FOUR AGREEMENTS.
Don't take things personally.
honor your words.
DON'T MAKE ASSUMPTIONS.
always do your best.
Mercury Saturn conjunction.
This aspect was exact yesterday and manifested as a scare in Hawaii that an incoming nuke was aimed at them. That aspect manifests as a WORRY FACTOR and wow that was quite an example. Telling parents to hide their kids in storm drains. Uau.
The aftermath of the false alert was "crazy," she told NBC Bay Area, and prompted people to run around on the streets "crying and screaming," wondering what to do.
That aspect is not all bad.. The Philly Eagles won yesterday to advance to the conference championship game yesterday with backup quarterback Nick Foles who had that conjunction land on him in a way that made him a steely eyed imitation of all pro starter Carson Wentz.. The game was one of the most tense (for fans) as I have seen in my 5 decades as a fan. A hand wringer from start to finish down to the last 4th and goal defensive stand with a few seconds left on the clock. Wow.. They were home underdogs.
Contracts for differences.
Contracts for differences have been around a long while but are NOT AVAILABLE to US residents But that is changing due to the emergence of crypto.. We at astroecon are at work now to blaze a trail out of the "company store" and we should have links and instructions on how to get an account in the next few days. I have used one based in the UK when I was working for the city of London bank 10 years ago and it is very clean and transparent way to trade crypto . FX.. gold silver oil and a bunch of equity indexes stocks etc. All outside of US regs.. ( greedy controllers ).
If you live outside of the USA you are lucky. If you are in the US it takes a bit more effort to get an account funded. Once you are out of the slave money system it feels like freedom.
The forgotten asset class.
In the midst of the crypto hype there is a laggard of interest. The new wealth of BTC becomes a difficult job in preserving that wealth due to exchange issues and high fees and potential regs and taxes.
Interesting discussion on Keiser report yesterday about Gold.. Keep in mind that it is FAR easier to convert crypto to phiz gold and silver than into the bankster FRNS and I would suggest that Stacy Herbert is right on with her doing some wealth protection now.
Contacts for differences.
Contracts for differences have been around a long while but are NOT AVAILABLE to US residents But that is changing due to the emergence of crytpo.. We at astroecon are at work now to blaze a trail out of the "company store" and we should have links and instructions on how to get an account in the next few days. I have used one based in the UK when I was working for the city of London bank and it is very clean and transparent way to trade crypto . FX.. gold silver oil and a bunch of equity indexes stocks etc. All outside of US regs.. ( greedy controllers )
If you live outside of the USA you are lucky.
I would say in a more tactful way.. Who is pushing the USA into current immigration policy. Are they American first types or not. If not WFT. I think the answer is obvious and it is "people" who are either globalist from outside the US or zionists that want more slave voters to further "punish" the existing American population AKA white people. The dems have admitted they cannot win without illegal voters so you have that too.
The Asians learn the pump and dump.
Remember when the Chinese were going to shut down the crypto markets? Turned out to be fake news. Now S Korea is going to shut them down. The reaction is understandable with downward pressure on prices. In technical terms not much different today with eth still hanging ten in the bull move and the rest continuing to base out hopefully at a level that allows for a buy a dip soon.
There is a battle going on with many exchanges dysfunctional and not taking new customers. High fees.. Slow as shit execution. This is going to force a lot of traders to shift over to the CME and sets up the new BTC etfs for great attention. Anything to keep the rubes in the USD casino.
I am doing some work on the genesis block birth chart of BTC and it does appear to be sensitive to transits to that natal chart. I notice a big transit day Feb. 11th to keep on eye on. Details in the crypto section.
The day the market died.
No not the day after tomorrow.. It was on May 6th 2010.. rigger mortis did not set in until November 2011 when the the theft of billions by John Corzine went unpunished. There has NOT been price discovery since late 2011 and the rally in stawks ever since is a lot like financial pro wrestling.
The play by play action from the CME that day. May 2010 mini crash.
Posted for those that think that the USD fiat currency denominated markets are "safe"
You better watch this.
Just like in the matrix movie??
Wow what are we doing??
I think I mentioned that the coming election in November 2018 would see a euphoric "win" by female political power. Hummm Got to say I was not thinking Oprah but it may as well be her. Hey I don't know maybe will be an improvement.
The astro in front of the midterm is telling me that in essence trump will be a lame duck 1/2 way through his first term by a massive shift in congress. Then a woman wins the 2020 and that is ALL SHE WROTE for the good ol USA as we knew it.
Big short position.
I suspect the shorts are not all that aware of what BTC and the cryptos really are. I'm thinking Clint Eastwood saying FEELING LUCKY PUNK?? Of course it maybe fake news about it just to scare BTC holders out of their coins too.
I think this does explain why ETH has all of a sudden taken 2nd place in market cap and has risen to 1200 overnight.
1996 all over again.
I started this site in January 1996.. Ancient times when there were no html editors and email was too challenging for anyone over 30. The net was a patched up with duck taped unreliable mess on a good day. Yet the early adopters had an unbelievable head start in the biggest change in the economy since the invention of the steam engine.
Years ago I advocated hedging USD exposure with 10% metal and 10% crypto. Few listened including close family who rolled their eyes. If someone had done it then they would have to rebalance that 10% crypto now by selling some crypto off and shifting it to phiz metal. Annnnndddd you would have some fun money to play with on top.. Maybe buy a Benz or a yacht. OR MAYBE buy some so called shitcoins like STELLAR with some of it. Lol I like the name and am going to start to follow that coin in the crypto trading section.
People question Trump's sanity and I am not surprised. I don't think Trump is crazy but I do see him serving his masters. His cabinet is a collection of reps of the various crime syndicates who are forcing their will on policy to a point of insanity. Sessions is a tool of the big money narco mafia / police state that is the very definition of the swamp.
Locking up anyone using or growing a plant that has proven harmless when an epidemic of young people are dying of legalized opiates. That is indeed insane.
I do not think anyone who has been using pot is going to stop it because sessions has a bribe to pay off.. All it does is remove any shred of credibility of the so called law and I say fine we the people will take it upon ourselves to bypass the entirety of the slave system by creating an ALT ECONOMY.
A buddy of mine for almost 2 decades CLIF HIGH is on a roll. Clif and I have collaborated various times over the years and it is great to see him getting his due. I am very impressed that he is so popular with younger people who need the guidance of an old dude who knows the ropes. LOL.. he is also popular out in the jungles of South America and rural China. Tip of the spear against the debt machine.
Seeing the astro today and thinking we have peak bluster going on. Mars and Jupiter are Conjunct in Scorpio and in a sextile to Sun Venus and Pluto. This is powerful energy and not necessarily "bad" in a sense that it is likely someone blinks at least when it comes to North Korea. Iran maybe not as I see Israel behind what is going on there and we know what they want.
Sessions. AKA monkey man.
WTF man it is clear that the will of WE THE PEOPLE means nothing in DC.
Really he has nothing better to do than this? He serves as a pawn for the clinton/bush narco crime empire who is going lose out big if we the people can grow our own. He serves the police and prison industry also who have STOLEN BILLIONS of taxpayers money in the fake war on drugs. He serves the interests of BIG BEER as if alcohol is some how OK when it is proven to be up there with opiates in destructive results.
If the gov wants people to respect the law it should be that the laws are respectable.
I wonder how many tons of carbon it takes an hour to heat AlGore mansion?
LOL I am old enough to remember winter as god meant it to be. The warmist would like everyone to get amnesia and think this is something new and dont ya know that humans are causing it.
There is clear evidence that the output of the sun has a DIRECT effect on earth temperature and guess what the location of the large gas planets relative to each other has a direct effect on the solar cycle and solar output. Some people would even call it ASTROLOGY.. HAHAHAHAHA.
Hide the decline no longer.
From Marty Armstrong.
The danger to humans and civilization is COLD. Same as it ever was. The human caused global warmists are misdirecting the public for a few sheckles and the results in the longer term are going to be an extinction level problem the longer the real danger is ignored.

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Begin hands-on, interactive case study creating major financial statements Modify and enhance case study by interjecting ways to "cook the books" and analyzing the results Continuation, analysis and wrap-up of hands-on, interactive case study Conclusion of case study demonstrating, illustrating and highlighting all key discussion points, definitions and examples Discussion of deferred tax liabilities and deferred tax assets; permanent vs. temporary differences and effect on effective tax rates Review of important financial and accounting ratios Compute, compare and contrast performance measures (internal liquidity ratios, asset management and efficiency metrics, profitability measures, external liquidity statistics and debt management)
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DAY ONE: Accrual Concept of Accounting & Financial Statements Compilation.
Overview of importance of accounting, accounting as a performance measurement tool and discussion of various stakeholders involved Accrual concept of accounting, revenue recognition and matching principle Classification and construction of financial statements Comprehend the basic concepts underlying the Income Statement and Balance Sheet and the relationship Review of working capital and understanding its impact on a business and cash flow Understand how depreciation, amortization and other non-cash expenses are accounted for and how they impact the financial statements Detailed Income Statement review, including definition, significance and application of: Revenue, COGS, Gross Profit, SG&A, Operating Income (EBIT) & EBITDA Interest Expense and Income, Pre-Tax Income, Taxes (Current & Deferred) Net Income, Shares Outstanding (Basic and Diluted), Earnings per Share Detailed Balance Sheet review, including definition, significance and application of: Current Assets (Cash, Inventories, Accounts Receivables, Pre-paid Expenses) Fixed Assets (PPE), Long-Term Assets (Equity Investments) Goodwill and Intangibles Current Liabilities (Accounts Payable and Deferred Revenue) Long-Term Liabilities (Debt and Capital Leases) Minority Interest (Non-Controlling Interest) Equity (Common Stock, Additional Paid in Capital, Retained Earnings, Treasury Stock and OCI) Detailed Cash Flow Statement review, including definition, significance and application of: CFO - Cash Flow from Operations (Net Income, Depreciation & Amortization, Changes in Working Capital) CFI - Cash Flow from Investing (Capital Expenditures, Acquisitions, Divestitures) CFF - Cash Flow from Financing (Dividends, Stock Issuances and Repurchases, Change in Debt) Understand why the Cash Flow Statement is the "ultimate balancer and equalizer" Appreciate the information content of the IS/BS/CF and their inter-relationships Explanation of Accrued Expenses, Receivables and Payables and how they tie together Analyze financial statements from a high-level context and how to spot inconsistencies on the Income Statement and Balance Sheet ("cooking the books") that appear and cannot be hidden on the Cash Flow Statement ("cash is king" - can't hide cash or lack of cash) Understand the process by which an entity's financial activities ultimately get reflected in its financials Hands-on, interactive case study creating major financial statements.
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Main components of a 10K filing and how it is different from an Annual Report What type of information can be extracted from the MD&A section Detailed discussion of all major footnotes, how to analyze and interpret footnotes Hands-on project analyzing, comparing and contrasting 10K's of various companies What is a 10K and how is it different from an Annual Report? Major components of a 10K filing Detailed discussion on the MD&A section (Management Discussion & Analysis) Detailed discussion of all major footnotes and how to analyze and interpret major categories of footnotes: General footnotes Balance Sheet footnotes Contingencies footnotes Income Statement footnotes Capital Structure footnotes Other footnotes Interactive group project break-out to analyze, compare and contrast 10K's of various companies Revenue terminology differences Interest and expense classification Balance sheet analysis Cash flow analysis Analysis and comparison of footnotes MD&A / Segment breakdown and discussion Brief discussion of Proxy statement and its utility.
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Normalize financials for extraordinary items, non-recurring and restructuring charges Our adjustments module covers just about 98% of ALL adjustments one would possibly encounter!! When and when not to adjust for asset impairments and write-downs How to adjust for zero-coupon convertible securities that are simultaneously in - and out-of-the-money The effects of a LIFO / FIFO change in accounting recognition How to adjust for changes in accounting principle and discontinued operations Below - vs. above-the-line adjustments and evaluate when an item affects both, one or the other or neither How to properly account for difference in fiscal year ends Proper treatment of capital leases for adjustments, valuation and credit When to use reported GAAP Income Statement figures and when to use Pro Forma figures.
DAY THREE: Diluted Earnings per Share.
Understand nuances associated with calculation of Basic and Diluted EPS for financial projections Extremely useful for standalone financial modeling, merger consequences and accretion/dilution as well as waterfall treatment of preferred securities Basic EPS: plain vanilla calculation with and without preferred coupons/dividends Proper treatment of next layer of dilution: treasury method of options outstanding vs. exercisable Extrapolate options treatment to accounting for warrants Incorporate effects of convertible debt and how to handle anti-dilutive securities in EPS Compare and contrast effects of convertible preferred vs. convertible debt.
DAY THREE: Deferred Taxes.
Discussion of deferred tax liabilities and deferred tax assets Compare and contrast permanent vs. temporary differences and effect on effective tax rates Understand logic and calculation of deferred tax liabilities from straight-line and accelerated depreciation Perform calculations and compare and contrast impact on Income Statement and tax liabilities on BS Comprehend and analyze the effect of Net Operating Losses (NOLs) carryback and carry-forward Run through tax implications of combining both DTA and DTL on financial statements Precursor for understanding NOL Section 382 limitations in mergers and acquisitions.
DAY FOUR: Business Combinations: Equity Accounting vs. Consolidation vs. Minority Interest.
Understand the accounting treatment for: cost vs. equity method vs. consolidation/minority interest Compare cost accounting and its similarities to cash accounting and contrast against accrual accounting Understand the IS and BS and CF entries and impact of cost accounting Articulate the goals of equity method of accounting and its stark contrast to cost accounting Understand the IS and BS and CF entries and impact of equity accounting Recognize the accrual method of accounting that equity accounting uses and its financial modeling impacts Compile Income Statement based on provided assumptions and margins for equity method.
DAY FOUR: Advanced M&A Purchase Accounting (FASB 141R/142 & IFRS #3)
Thorough discussion and review of Purchase Price Allocation rules (FASB 141R/142 and IFRS 3) Allocate purchase price among tangible book value (existing assets at cost), step-up in basis to FMV, tax deductible and non-tax deductible identifiable intangibles and goodwill Proper accounting treatment of transaction costs, tender costs and accrued interest of any refinanced debt and debt transaction financing fees Account for differences in GAAP book deductibility and tax deductibility of intangible assets Difference between asset deal vs. outright asset purchase Compare and contrast acquirors' preference to allocate purchase price to goodwill vs. other intangibles Articulate creation of deferred tax liabilities as a secondary purchase price allocation adjustment required Review basic rules as to creation of deferred taxes and differences in book vs. tax basis Goodwill as offsetting entry to balance purchase price allocation in cases of stock deals with step-ups Review goodwill impairment rules and non-tax deductibility of goodwill Understand USA's 338(h)(10) and Section 754 elections and implications on tax accounting for mergers Compare and contrast stock deal accounting treatment vs. 338(h)(10) elections.
NOLs and taxes revisited: understand how Section 382 limitations impact financial statements & projections Understand how Goodwill is created upon consolidation only and doesn't reside on specific Balance Sheets Understand exact mechanics of how Minority Interest is created & how to model out MI on financial models Back to this topicBack to top.
Accounting & Financial Statement Integration.
Similar to the Accounting Boot Camp above, this program covers the basics of financial accounting including the major financial statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow) and the most important components of each as it relates to financial analysis. Concentration is placed on the integration of the financial statements and provides a full integrated grasp of accounting from a finance perspective.
Financial Statement Analysis.
Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement defined and importance explained Components of each major financial statement IS: Revenue and expense items, EBITDA defined and discussed BS: Assets, Liabilities, and Shareholders' Equity CF: Cash Flow from Operations, Investing Activities and Financing Understand how financial statements are inter-related Relationship between the Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement Explanation of Accrued Expenses, Receivables and Payables and how they tie together.
Key Ratios.
Overview and explanation of major financial ratios, including liquidity, asset management, debt management, profitability, and market value ratios.
Hands-On Exercise.
Interactive group project break-out to analyze, compare and contrast financial statements of various companies; discussion and recommendation of which companies are more attractive.
Pré-requisitos
Desire to learn accounting terminology, general business smarts and common sense Back to this topicBack to top.
How to Analyze a 10K.
"How to Analyze a 10K" builds upon basic accounting and financial statements concepts to focus on the major components of a 10K SEC filing, including the Management Discussion & Analysis, Financial Condition and Results and how to analyze the myriad of footnotes.
Overview & Análise.
What is a 10K and how is it different from an Annual Report? Major components of a 10K filing Detailed discussion on the MD&A section (Management Discussion & Analysis) Detailed discussion of all major footnotes and how to analyze and interpret major categories of footnotes: general footnotes, Balance Sheet footnotes, contingencies footnotes, Income Statement footnotes, Capital Structure footnotes, many other footnotes Brief discussion of Proxy statement and its utility Brief discussion and introduction to differences between US and International GAAP.
Hands-On Exercise.
Interactive group project break-out to analyze, compare and contrast 10K's of various companies Concentration on: revenue terminology differences, balance sheet analysis, cash flow analysis, analysis and comparison of footnotes, MD&A / segment breakdown and discussion.
Pré-requisitos
Desire to learn finance terminology, general business smarts and common sense Back to this topicBack to top.
Introduction to Finance ("Finance 101")
Learn the basic finance concepts that are the backbone of any financial analysis. An understanding of these basic core tools is absolutely critical to mastering any Wall Street analysis. Topics covered include risk / return trade-offs, time value of money, cost of capital, Gordon growth model and basic valuation theories.
Finance 101.
Risk / Return: Calculating returns and measuring risk, benefits of diversification (systematic and unsystematic risk, total risk, market risk and firm-specific risk), security market line, capital asset pricing model, beta Time Value of Money: present and future values, net present value, internal rate of return, compounding, discounting, uneven cash flow streams, simple vs. effective rates, periodic rates, CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rates) Basic Valuation Theories: value of any asset, dividend discount model (theory only!), Gordon growth model, growing perpetuity Cost of Capital: sources of capital, component costs, weighted average cost of capital.
Pré-requisitos
Desire to learn finance terminology, general business smarts and common sense Back to this topicBack to top.
Company profiles are the most basic overview and descriptions of a company being analyzed. Profiles supply the most basic and fundamental, yet probably the most important aspects of a company. Gain an introduction and explanation of the major components of a profile for a publicly traded company.
Perfis da empresa.
Summary business description and financial summary and trading analysis Stock price charts: price / volume graphs, indexed stock price history, moving averages, shares traded at various prices, forward PE history, historical EBITDA multiple valuation trends, beta and volatility, management and Board of Directors biographies, ownership analysis.
Pré-requisitos
Desire to learn finance terminology, general business smarts and common sense Back to this topicBack to top.
Build very quick financial summary and trading statistics exhibit using historical results, analyst estimates & basic assumptions in Excel. This course will allow you to understand basic structure of building an analysis in Excel and navigating through and becoming efficient in Excel.
Resumo financeiro.
Build a very simple financial overview exhibit by inputting historical results, analyst estimates and basic projections.
Trading Statistics.
Build trading statistics exhibit displaying standard market valuation multiples.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Finance 101: Introduction to Finance Corporate Valuation Methodologies Prior experience with Excel, decent ability to type and follow instructions Back to this topicBack to top.
Overview of Financial Markets (+ Supplementary Exhibits)
Part I: Sell-Side (Investment Banking, Research)
Overview of the Sell-Side Process: Investment banking (including financial sponsors), equity research, commercial banking, sales & trading (prime brokerage, proprietary trading), role of law firms and other related areas Investment Banking: Description, revenue sources, products / services, deal process, role of professional, industry trends, buzzwords, bulge bracket vs. boutique middle market, debt capital markets, distressed / restructuring players Equity Research: Description, revenue sources, products / services, deal process, role of professional, industry trends, buzzwords.
Part II: Buy-Side (Asset Management, Private Equity, Hedge Funds)
Overview of the Buy-Side Process: Asset management (products / services, role of professional, industry trends, buzzwords, private client services, private wealth management, portfolio management ), alternatives (hedge funds, private equity, fund of funds) Asset Management: Description, revenue sources, products / services, role of professional, industry trends, buzzwords, private client services, private wealth management, portfolio management Private Equity: Description, revenue sources, products / services, deal process, role of professional, industry trends, buzzwords, leveraged buyouts (LBOs), private equity securities, return targets Hedge Funds: Description, revenue sources, products / services, deal process, role of professional, industry trends, buzzwords, hedge fund strategies.
Part III: Capital Markets (Role of Institutional Players)
Overview of the Capital Markets: Entities / institutions in the capital markets, overview of markets and exchanges, efficient market hypothesis, technical analysis Role of Institutional Players: Depository institutions, securities firms, government sponsored enterprises, investment companies, insurance companies, institutional investors, financial advisors Markets and Orders: Securities markets and exchanges, types of trade orders (market, limit, stop, stop limit, etc), buying on margin Efficient Market Hypothesis: Weak form, semi-strong form, strong form Technical Analysis: Difference between fundamental analysis and technical trading strategies, which players use which and why.
Part IV: Securities Market and Finance 101.
Overview of Securities Markets: Types of securities, and basic approaches to valuation (Finance 101) Types of Securities: Cash, stock, bonds, mutual funds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), REITs, ADRs, securitizations, derivatives, stock market indexes Finance 101: Time value of money, compound annual growth rate (CAGR), risk & return, diversification, basic valuation (value of any asset and company valuation: using multiples) and cost of capital.
Pré-requisitos
Desire to learn finance terminology, general business smarts and common sense Back to this topicBack to top.
Soft Skills: Executive Presence.
When you walk into a room, do the people around you notice? To be a successful leader, you will want to command attention and establish executive presence. Not only is it enough to make a powerful first impression–you need to follow up with substance. Are you a visionary decision maker but too passive when giving presentations? Or a talented public speaker who could use some wardrobe changes? From the tangibles of how you look and sound to the intangibles of how you come off during conversation, developing executive presence is an essential step in taking leadership to the next level. While your local Toastmasters club can help you get over your public speaking jitters, this workshop will teach you the characteristics of a strong executive presence and help identify what you can do to enhance yours in a corporate setting.
Introdução.
What are the key elements of executive presence? What is special about executive presence that extends beyond simply having good posture and charisma? Why is a baseline level of self-confidence a prerequisite to developing executive presence? What do you need to have before forming a plan to strengthen it?
Self-Expression in the Boardroom.
How do you quickly gauge your audience in both professional and social settings? How can consulting a speech coach result in an improvement of your executive voice? What are the different expressive tools you can use to be perceived as an executive? Why is the Q&A section of a presentation so vital? What are universal communication cues, and how can they be used most effectively?
The "Executive" in "Executive Presence"
How do you maintain focus and a level head during adversities or otherwise unfamiliar situations? What are the key indicators of somebody who can remain calm and collected under pressure? How do you maintain a sense of authenticity in a variety of social and professional interactions? How do you increase your leadership visibility over time?
The "Presence" in "Executive Presence"
How can personal branding supplement your executive presence? How should you reconcile your individual reputation with your executive behavior? How can you become more self-aware of your personal branding and reputation in and out of the office?
Personal Branding.
How can personal branding supplement your executive presence? How should you reconcile your individual reputation with your executive behavior? How can you become more self-aware of your personal branding and reputation in and out of the office?
Plan of Action.
What techniques can you use to evaluate yourself on your current level of executive presence? Who should you enlist in order to help you improve your performance? Back to this topicBack to top.
Soft Skills: Research Report Writing.
Performing in-depth research of an industry or company is no small feat. Writing a concise yet detailed summary of your findings is sometimes even more difficult. While you may already be familiar with the basic contents of an equity research report, it is equally important to perfect your writing style. Carefully craft your overall thesis, organize your argument into clear and concise segments, and choose your words wisely. Although there is currently no governing body dictating the proper way to format your report, you should strive to develop proficiency with both the form and function of your analysis. This is not simply a grammar class–we will cover many elements of strong, effective writing, including the use of proper syntax, diction, and argument structures.
Equity Research Overview.
What is the aim of an equity research report, and who is the intended audience? What are the key differences between industry vs. company analysis and sell-side vs. buy-side research? Why is it insufficient to proofread for only spelling, grammar, and punctuation?
Anatomy of a Report.
What information needs to be included in an equity research report? How do you employ appropriate logical argument structures to succinctly drive your thesis? In which sequences should the different segments of equity analysis be arranged? How do the length and style of the report's individual parts affect reader comprehension? Why is structure relevant to the quality of your argument – how can you use this knowledge to enhance your thesis?
Content Decisions.
How do you tailor the content of the report to your specific audience? Which assumptions or determinations are acceptable for an analyst to make? How do you elegantly balance the wide spectrum of facts and opinions in the world of financial research?
Writing Mechanics.
What are the different types of sentence formations commonly found in research reports? How can you assess the degree to which a report's vocabulary choices are appropriate? How can you determine whether certain words are unnecessary or redundant? Is there a maximum sentence length for business writing? How should you use qualifiers and hedges to reduce or strengthen your message? When should you use nominal form vs. verbal form? Active voice vs. passive voice? What are some well-known word/phrase usage issues pertinent to both general and equity research writing?
Learn By Doing.
What are some writing exercises that can strengthen concise communication and argumentation skills? What resources are available as a reference regarding best practices in grammar and style? How should you conduct the editing and rewriting process, especially among a team of multiple analysts?
Plan of Action.
What techniques can you use to evaluate yourself on your current level of executive presence? Who should you enlist in order to help you improve your performance? Back to this topicBack to top.
2. Core Fundamental Conceptss.
Our core fundamental concepts in finance involve the basic financial modeling and valuation techniques that introduce model building best practices as well as getting used to working efficiently in Excel. After understanding the basic fundamental concepts, the most important building blocks of modeling are introduced as we begin to thoroughly analyze financial statements and their implications. We start to dive into the underpinnings of fundamental valuation (i. e. DCF analysis) and relative valuation (comps & multiples).
Corporate Valuation Methodologies & Corporate Finance.
Learn how corporations are valued and the major analytical tools that are used. Go beyond academic theory to real-world methods as used by professionals; includes a crucial primer to Corporate Finance and its non-theoretical application. Apply learning objectives and goals immediately by analyzing a $6 billion+ transaction. Topics covered include: (i) how to value a company (trading comps, deal comps, DCF, LBO, break-up and asset valuation); (ii) importance of Enterprise Value, EBITDA, capital structure, leverage and WACC; (iii) analyze valuation multiples and ratios; why are PE ratios sub-optimal as a valuation metric?; (iv) practical, non-theoretical application of introduction to corporate finance.
Valuation Methodologies.
How much is a company worth? Why is the current stock price not an accurate indication of value? How do you tell if a company is under-valued or over-valued? Why would one company command a higher or lower premium than its direct competitor? What is the importance between enterprise value and equity value? Why do we include minority interest and exclude capital leases? What is the relevance of capital structure and leverage on a companys value? Why and how is corporate finance so critical to managing a firm's profitability? What exactly does a multiple tell us? Learn the correct way to use P/E ratios and other multiples Why are P/E ratios misunderstood and what other profitability-related ratios are more important? What is EBITDA and why is it so important? Utilizing the correct numerator for multiples analysis Calculating implied value based on multiples analysis What is a leveraged buyout and what are the main motives for LBOs?
Case Study Discussion.
Analysis of "football field" and reference ranges Detailed discussion of the major valuation methodologies, their nuances and application in the real-world Analyzing, comparing and contrasting trading comps, deal comps and premiums paid Detailed explanation of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation, its theory and application Discussion of why the DCF is arguably one of the most important analyses while simultaneously one of the most academic and least practical of them all Review of WACC (weighted average cost of capital), CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) How do you approach valuing a company with completely disparate businesses?
Hands-On Exercise.
Interactive group project break-out to analyze, compare and contrast financial statements of various companies; discussion and recommendation of which companies are more attractive.
Pré-requisitos
Contabilidade & amp; Financial Statements Integration How to Analyze a 10K Finance 101: Introduction to Finance Back to this topicBack to top.
Basic Financial Modeling.
This course builds upon, and implements in Excel, the fundamental financial analysis and valuation topics. Create a top-down, five year income statement projection model and then construct a basic discounted cash flow analysis on top of your projection model.
Income Statement Projection.
Input historical financial results and recast as necessary Calculate historical growth rates and margins which serve as the basis for your projection assumptions Calculate your projected profitability from revenue down to EPS Learn the correct way to calculate diluted shares outstanding Brief discussion and introduction to differences between U. S. and International GAAP.
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis.
How is a discounted cash flow analysis actually constructed? What is the difference between the terminal value and perpetuity growth approaches and what are the implications on value? Learn subtle nuances including the proper figure for "cash flow" in perpetuity growth models.
Pré-requisitos
Contabilidade & amp; Financial Statements Integration Finance 101: Introduction to Finance Corporate Valuation Methodologies Company Overview Back to this topicBack to top.
Basic Valuation Techniques.
Build upon Corporate Valuation Methodologies with a short, hands-on exercise to hone in the core concepts in practice before diving into the more advanced valuation modeling topics. Translate the valuation concepts into real-life case study that demonstrates and shows the valuation principles.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Calculate current trading and valuation statistics of industry competitors Project value of a company and stock based on estimated industry average valuation multiples Construct a sample DDM and DCF valuation analysis Estimate WACC, component costs of capital and CAPM and incorporate into valuation analysis Back to this topicBack to top.
3. Advanced Financial Modeling.
Take everything to the next level as we build upon the basic & core concepts to cover the fundamental financial modeling concepts that one must be master in order to perform the minimum financial analysis required. We will make you "super-stars" in Excel and modeling techniques as well as understand the art of valuation. We plow deep into building robust, integrated models and ripping apart footnotes and making subjective inputs and properly analyzing the results of our models.
Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model.
Build fully integrated 5-yr financial statement projection model by projecting the Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement, the Debt Sweep to balance model and Interest Schedule to fully integrate model. This course will allow you to have a complete financial model projecting run-rate profitability which you can easily layer on valuation and merger models.
5-Year Financial Statement Projection Model.
How do you project a company's Income Statement from revenues and expenses down to Net Income? What are the different methodologies to forecasting the different types of assets on the balance sheet and how do they compare and contrast with projecting liabilities? How do you project the shareholders' equity account? What is the importance of financial ratios in building the balance sheet projections? How do you approach building an integrated cash flow statement? How do you build each component of the cash flow statement and why is cash the last item to project?
Incorporate calculation and payment of dividends into your integrated financial model Emulate announced share repurchase program by estimating implied price and shares repurchased.
Balance the model using the debt schedule and debt sweep logic – the most important analysis in terms of balancing the model!! How does the cash actually flow through the model? Incorporate automatic debt payments and use cash generated to either pay down debt or build cash How does the revolver facility actually balance the model? Avoid messy nested "if" statements!! How does the balance sheet and financial statements balance by itself without the use of "plugs"? How are the financial statements integrated using the Interest schedule? What are circular references, why should they be avoided and how to get around circular references.
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Company Overview Basic Financial Modeling Efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Advanced Segment Build-up Sensitivity Modeling.
Learn how to build detailed revenue and segment build-ups into your larger financial model. Many financial projection models are based off simple revenue growth rate and expense margin assumptions, resulting in reduced precision in the projection model. This course teaches various approaches to true, bottoms-up, fundamental analysis, from both an "account-by-account" and "business segment" basis (very detailed build-up vs. division by division). The results of build-up analysis roll-up into a consolidating income statement that feeds into the Income Statement revenue items.
Detailed Business Segment Build-Up:
Model out historical change in key drivers of growth and project future detailed growth Analyze and break down growth based on publicly available data and inputs from 10K filing Incorporate and remove effect of growth from non-core items such as foreign exchange rate fluctuations Project future detailed growth assumptions that roll up into larger projection model Instead of just calculating 10% growth rate in revenue, dig into deeper layers of growth drivers For instance, for a retailer, calculate Sales / Sq Foot / Type of Store, which captures: (i) number of stores (store count growth); (ii) size of each store (expansion and size creep); (iii) profitability of each sq foot and same store comps sales (YoY sales growth)
Operating & Division Segment Build-Up:
Calculate and analyze different operating segments as reported in public filings to roll-up into IS Adjust for extraordinary items by segment based on MD&A and disclosed footnotes Extract, utilize and incorporate volume and pricing increases into operating segment performance Estimate and project future revenue and segment income and allocate for corporate overhead Estimate projected COGS and SG&A on the entire base after operating build-up.
Detailed New Business Build-Up:
Bridge the gap and quantify future, as-yet-unachieved growth initiatives based on concrete assumptions Analysis would roll into core "organic growth" model and sensitized Model out effects of hiring new sales representatives and the associated increased revenue Triangulate new revenue and tiered commission expenses due to renewal business Calculate incremental salary and bonus cost of new sales representatives Calculate additional cost of sales and other expenses related to new business.
Detailed Account by Account Build-Up:
Project sources of revenue based on growth in number of accounts and customers Model out revenue per account and associated commissions and expenses Incorporate rate increases into model Further enhance model via sensitivity & scenario modeling and analysis Detailed build-up consolidates into Consolidating Income Statement which feeds into model Account for inter-company eliminations in historical pro forma model and projections.
Sensitivity Analysis and Multiple Cases:
Layer sensitivity analysis on top of segment build-up to incorporate various assumptions and cases Build multiple scenarios and cases, including Base Case, Optimistic & Pessimistic Cases Toggle and sensitize profitability and cash flow of model based on various case assumptions.
Pré-requisitos
Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model Back to this topicBack to top.
Advanced Financial & Valuation Modeling – Enhancements - Part I.
Build upon completed core model and layer on valuation analysis. Construct DCF valuation model, detailed revenue segment build-up, project more precise depreciation schedule, calculate credit & leverage statistics and ratios, construct a reference range and football field summary valuation. This Enhancements course will allow you to have a much more detailed stand-alone financial model and valuation model!
Enhancements to Core Integrated Financial Model.
Build a stand-alone depreciation schedule to better estimate working capital changes and free cash flow by depreciating existing PPE as well as new capital expenditures Credit and leverage statistics ratio analysis with automated comparisons vs. S&P rating statistics.
Detailed Business Segment Build-Up.
Model out historical change in key drivers of growth and project future detailed growth Analyze and break down growth based on publicly available data and inputs from 10K filing Incorporate and remove effect of growth from non-core items such as foreign exchange rate fluctuations Project future detailed growth assumptions that roll up into larger projection model.
Valuation Modeling.
Construct a discounted cash flow analysis, estimate unlevered free cash flow (free cash flow to firm) and terminal value using multiples approach and perpetuity growth approach Build reference range and football field to summarize valuation.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Finance 101 – Introduction to Finance Corporate Valuation Methodologies Company Overview Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model Extreme efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Advanced Financial & Valuation Modeling – Enhancements - Part II.
Further enhance core integrated financial model by building a detailed tax schedule incorporating NOLs (Net Operating Losses), Section 382 limitations on NOL usage and differences between book and tax depreciation. Dive deep into re-calculating depreciation for tax purposes based on accelerated depreciation – MACRS (Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System) in the US. Incorporate and flow the accelerated tax depreciation into the larger tax schedule to account for differences in GAAP Pre-Tax Income and Taxable Income. Finish up with a quick Residual Income analysis and EVA (Economic Value Added) analysis, which complements our Enhancements Part I course.
Construct flexible Tax Depreciation Schedule.
GAPP depreciation schedule is off simplistic straight-line assumption while tax write-offs allow for accelerated depreciation schedule Incorporate real-world MACRS schedule (US IRS tax code) to depreciate assets based on various property classes and recovery year Integrate with new capital expenditures assumptions by asset class Compare and contrast with GAAP depreciation Gain better precision into cash flow modeling and working capital line items.
Construct and reconcile extremely detailed Book vs. Tax Income Tax Schedule.
Combine GAAP and tax depreciation schedule into tax schedule for model's deferred tax liability Further enhance detailed tax schedule incorporating NOLs (Net Operating Losses) Incorporate limitations on NOL usage based on change of control provisions Construct detailed accelerated tax depreciation schedules based on MACRS Properly build-up detailed deferred tax assets and liabilities Balance Sheet accounts Perform and analyze Residual Value and EVA analysis.
Construct a discounted cash flow analysis, estimate unlevered free cash flow (free cash flow to firm) and terminal value using multiples approach and perpetuity growth approach Build reference range and football field to summarize valuation.
Calculate equity capital charge total capital charge Use correct discount rate for each analysis Compare and contrast pros and cons and the purpose of each analysis.
Pré-requisitos
Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model Enhancements to the Core Model – Part 1 Back to this topicBack to top.
Private Company Pro Forma Modeling.
Pro Forma financial statements are a tool to recast financial results in a manner that is more representative of future performance and to remove the effects of private ownership. Pro Forma financial statements have one or more assumptions or hypothetical conditions built into the data and are often used to develop core earnings capacity (quality of earnings) when the objective is to value a company for sale to a third party or for internal perpetuation. The goal is to examine a sampling of the most common types of Pro Forma adjustments most often seen when valuing closely-held entities. Similar to analyzing one-time adjustments for public companies, the adjustments can affect both revenues and expenses, increasing or decreasing either one. However, private company pro form adjustments require a much more detailed analysis of each expense line to adjust for the effects of private ownership.
How to recast financial results to be more representative of future performance and adjust for the effects of private ownership Understand the different types of adjustments required, ranging from discretionary to non-recurring to standalone corporate entity Comprehend the major types of revenue adjustments to isolate true, organic revenue base Learn the right questions to ask regarding new clients, lost clients, profit sharing agreements and more Plow through all the expense line items, focusing on SG&A expenses Apply industry-wide rules of thumbs on compensation and benefits Adjust for the impact of key officers and management's run-rate compensation level Dive in deep on operating expenses, from auto expenses/allowances to advertising/marketing, etc Adjust for taxes from a private, pass-thru entity to a standalone corporation Analyze key Balance Sheet adjustments such as midnight shareholder dividends and officer loans.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Company Overview Basic Financial Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
4. Valuation Modeling.
We dive deeper into the nuances of valuation by understanding the art (not science) of valuation. Build upon your core financial models by integrating and layering on hands-on valuation analysis. Construct standard full-blown DCF analysis, trading & deal comps analysis and summary football field. Dive real deep into the nuances of valuation by ripping apart footnotes and making subjective inputs while balancing objectivity.
Corporate Valuation Methodologies & Corporate Finance.
Learn how corporations are valued and the major analytical tools that are used. Go beyond academic theory to real-world methods as used by professionals; includes a crucial primer to Corporate Finance and its non-theoretical application. Apply learning objectives and goals immediately by analyzing a $6 billion+ transaction. Topics covered include: (i) how to value a company (trading comps, deal comps, DCF, LBO, break-up and asset valuation); (ii) importance of Enterprise Value, EBITDA, capital structure, leverage and WACC; (iii) analyze valuation multiples and ratios; why are PE ratios sub-optimal as a valuation metric?; (iv) practical, non-theoretical application of introduction to corporate finance.
Valuation Methodologies.
How much is a company worth? Why is the current stock price not an accurate indication of value? How do you tell if a company is under-valued or over-valued? Why would one company command a higher or lower premium than its direct competitor? What is the importance between enterprise value and equity value? Why do we include minority interest and exclude capital leases? What is the relevance of capital structure and leverage on a companys value? Why and how is corporate finance so critical to managing a firm's profitability? What exactly does a multiple tell us? Learn the correct way to use P/E ratios and other multiples Why are P/E ratios misunderstood and what other profitability-related ratios are more important? What is EBITDA and why is it so important? Utilizing the correct numerator for multiples analysis Calculating implied value based on multiples analysis What is a leveraged buyout and what are the main motives for LBOs?
Case Study Discussion.
Analysis of "football field" and reference ranges Detailed discussion of the major valuation methodologies, their nuances and application in the real-world Analyzing, comparing and contrasting trading comps, deal comps and premiums paid Detailed explanation of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation, its theory and application Discussion of why the DCF is arguably one of the most important analyses while simultaneously one of the most academic and least practical of them all Review of WACC (weighted average cost of capital), CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) How do you approach valuing a company with completely disparate businesses?
Hands-On Exercise.
Interactive group project break-out to analyze, compare and contrast financial statements of various companies; discussion and recommendation of which companies are more attractive.
Pré-requisitos
Contabilidade & amp; Financial Statements Integration How to Analyze a 10K Finance 101: Introduction to Finance Back to this topicBack to top.
Fundamental Valuation – DCF Modeling.
Layer on complete valuation analysis including discounted cash flow analysis, quick & dirty trading comps, reference range and football field. Learn the proper way to account for options in valuation context using complex treasury method.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Construct a "fully-loaded," complex discounted cash flow analysis the correct way with options Integrate with trading & deal comps to complete valuation analysis Build and analyze reference range and football field to summarize overall valuation metrics.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation Modeling.
How is a discounted cash flow analysis actually constructed? Estimate unlevered free cash flow (free cash flow to firm) Why is amortization non-tax-deductible from a tax perspective and what are the implications on value? What are different proxy methods for calculating working capital? Terminal Value estimation: what are the differences between the EBITDA multiple and perpetuity growth approaches and what are the implications on value? Learn subtle nuances including the proper figure for "cash flow" in perpetuity growth models Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) analysis that supports the DCF (estimate discount rate) Calculate from enterprise value down to equity value and ultimately down to stock price per share Learn the correct way to calculate shares outstanding using the treasury diluted method.
Quick & amp; Dirty Trading Comps.
Build a basic, quick and dirty, back-of-the-envelope trading comps analysis Construct a relative valuation analysis Input historical results and analyst projections for comparable companies (public traded competitors) Calculate current standalone market valuation multiples.
Reference Range & "Football Field" Valuation.
Build reference range that quantifies fundamental and valuation methodologies Perform valuation modeling techniques including: quick & dirty trading comps, reference range analysis Crystallize and appreciate the capital structure and the relationship between total enterprise value, equity value and price per share Utilize best practices to reduce average construction time from 2 hours to 30 seconds Build and update dynamic football field to graphically summarize valuation metrics Analyze, discuss, compare and contrast valuation results Back to this topicBack to top.
Complex Trading Comps Analysis.
Build a detailed, thorough trading comps analysis (analysis of selected publicly traded companies) and learn how to properly construct a relative valuation analysis the correct way as well as how to normalize financials for extraordinary items, non-recurring and restructuring charges. This course itself isn't terribly complex or difficult, but is very tedious, time consuming and at times frustrating as it requires a great deal of patience, attention to detail and reading comprehension. Hence, the first four letters of the title "analyst" ring true – perfection is required to get the right numbers.
Trading Comps Overview and Instruction.
Learn the steps required to construct a trading comps analyses and how to filter straight through to the relevant information Best practices on inputting and checking data, "Do's and Don'ts" tips, specific Income Statement and Balance Sheet reminders Calculate LTM (last twelve months) and handling projections for comparability Weighted average cost of capital analysis.
Complex Comps Adjustments.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Finance 101 – Introduction to Finance Company Profiles Corporate Valuation Methodologies Company Overview Basic Financial Modeling Quick & Dirty Trading Comps Analysis Efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Deal Comps Analysis (Precedent Transactions)
Build a deal comps analysis (analysis of selected acquisitions), similar to trading comps analysis, but from an acquisition context using historical transaction data instead of current market valuation data. This course will allow you to properly construct a deal comps analysis the correct way, uncovering some of the nuances related to calculating transaction value and purchase price. This course is not a complex course and in fact, is a relative breeze compared with our Complex Trading Comps course, but builds upon the concepts in the latter course.
Deal Comps Instruction.
Learn the steps required to construct a deal comps analyses and how to filter straight through to the relevant information Plow through the myriad of deal information such as 8K filings, 10K filings, press releases and industry databases Calculate transaction value (purchase price), premiums and multiples in past deals Uncover subtle nuances of determining correct enterprise value and avoid valuation mistakes.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Company Profiles Corporate Valuation Methodologies Company Overview Basic Financial Modeling Quick & Dirty Trading Comps Analysis Complex Trading Comps Analysis Efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Private Company Pro Forma Valuation.
This course builds upon our basic Corporate Valuation course and introduces the complex nuances associated with analyzing and valuing private companies. We dive deep into the details and concepts deeply imbedded with valuation of large publicly traded and listed companies and take it to next level by applying it to companies and regions with very sparse publicly available data. Learn nuances of adjusting for DCF valuation, WACC analysis when no data exists, how to select and adjust peer comparables when no "good comp" exists. While there is certainly no magic bullet to the tough questions and lack of information, there are techniques and best practices to get us as close as possible.
Fundamental & DCF Valuation Nuances: Detailed explanation of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation, its theory and application Discussion of why the DCF is arguably one of the most important analyses while simultaneously one of the most academic and least practical of them all Analysis of EBITDA and growth approaches to Terminal Value estimation and pros and cons of each Discussion on the correct Cash Flow starting point for Gordon Growth Rate: long-term relationship between CapEx and depreciation and the theoretical implications on DCF Computing reasonable perpetual growth rate and the nuances associated Perpetual growth rate method and applications: how to value high growth companies in which the terminal year growth has not yet reached steady state growth for perpetuity.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Finance 101 Corporate Valuation Methodologies & Corporate Finance Basic Valuation Techniques Back to this topicBack to top.
Participating Preference Securities.
When investing in earlier stage companies, whether start-up, growth or mezzanine stage investing, there is a fine balance between incentivizing the newest round of investors injecting capital and providing enough returns for earlier round investors, while still motivating management to strive for mutual alignment of economic interests. Investors desire downside protection while craving equity upside. Thus, the participating preference securities evolved from a blend of common stock with equity upside & voting rights to debt with accruing interest and priority of liquidation. In this course, learn how to structure, and model out such hybrid securities commonly used in VC and earlier stage investing.
Liquidation Waterfall Modeling & Analysis.
Modeling Preferred Equity and Multiple Class Share Positions: structuring returns for each equity participant and class/series of investors Equity Assumptions: capitalization tables, pre-money vs. post-money calculations Liquidation Preference: minimum return threshold based on pre-determined multiple and accrued dividends over time → provides LIFO effect of last dollar in, first dollar out Dividends: Cash pay vs PIK; compounding vs simple; cumulative vs. non-cumulative Participation Rights: investors shall participate on equity upside based on fully diluted ownership percentage → allows investors to participate in upside valuation after liquidation preference protection Participation Caps: the crux of the analysis focuses on the capped upside of the investor and re-distribution of fully diluted ownership percentage for remaining investors → it gets complicated and that's why it's called a waterfall! Conversion: complicate the analysis by adding in a conversion option for all investors to further participate in upside → could radically change the valuation parameters based on final valuation/liquidation amount Management Options & Warrants: incorporate management options in allocation of final management proceeds → based on cashless converts using treasury method of dilution Back to this topicBack to top.
Pension Accounting for Valuation.
Pension and Other Post-Employment Benefits has had an increasing spotlight on a company's reported results and financial statements, especially given the dramatic impact on the airline and car manufacturing industries. Understand how different employer paid benefit programs, such as defined benefit pensions, manifest in and impact the firm's financial statements. Learn how and where to find benefit plan liabilities, their implications on valuation and profitability and how to analyze the information provided. This program begins with a primer on accounting and financial statements, the 10K SEC filing, a thorough review of pension accounting and terminology, the associated footnotes in a 10K filing and how to synthesize the information into a coherent analysis. Incorporate new Pension Protection Act of 2006 and SFAS 158: Accounting for Defined Benefit Plans.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Accounting & Financial Statement Overview: IS/BS/CF, relationships and ratios Analyze a 10K: MD&A Overview, selected relevant benefit plan footnotes Pension Accounting Review: Overview from financial analysis perspective and implications Hands-On Exercise: Accounting ratios/implications & Pension footnote analysis.
Accounting & Financial Statement Overview.
Comprehensive financial statement review of Income Statement, Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement Understand how financial statements are inter-related to each other and the intricate relationships Overview and explanation of major financial ratios, including: liquidity, asset management, debt management, profitability, and market value ratios.
10K SEC Filing and Benefit Footnotes:
Brief discussion of 10K SEC filing and the importance of benefits footnotes disclosed Understand MD&A and risk factors and how they are tied to profitability and benefits expenditures Detailed analysis of various Pension and Other Postretirement Benefit footnotes & their implications.
Pension Terminology & Accounting:
Learn pension-specific accounting terminology in the context of financial analysis Thorough review of pension expense factors and assumptions as well as impact to profitability Assess projected benefit obligation, change in retirement plan assets, funded status of plan Brief overview, discussion and implications of SFAS 158: Accounting for Defined Benefit Plans Brief overview, discussion and implications of Pension Protection Act of 2006 Summary impact of pension disclosures on valuation and total enterprise value.
Hands-On Exercise / Case Study:
Interactive, hands-on group project break-out to analyze financial statements selected company Analyze and interpret actual 10K SEC filing footnotes on pensions and OPEB. incorporate into financials of selected company and compare and contrast financial implications Back to this topicBack to top.
5. Merger Modeling.
Our merger modeling topics introduce critical skills required for understanding how to structure and analyze mergers & acquisitions. After modeling a company's profits / cash flow and valuing the entity, one must decide what to do with the company in the grand scheme of its strategic alternatives, including a merger or acquisition. We introduce the basics of deal structuring and implications on accretion/dilution to building more involved merger models with the complexity of complicated FASB and IFRS accounting rules.
M&A Deal Structuring.
The goals of this course include: (i) understand the major steps and timelines of M&A; (ii) learn how to structure an M&A deal; (iii) explore common deal structures and determine optimal deal structures such as cash vs. stock consideration, stock vs. asset deals; and (iv) accretion / dilution and breakeven analysis. This course provides the fundamental knowledge required to understand, analyze and structure mergers & acquisitions. To hone the concepts learned in this module, be sure to follow-up with our hands-on, Excel-based Merger Modeling Basics course.
Mergers & Acquisitions Overview.
Motivations for mergers and acquisitions M&A sale process and timetable Review of strategic planning & preparation of required materials Examination of the types of potential buyers Description of the due diligence process Overview of negotiation & closing processes Overview of representations and warranties.
M&A Deal Structuring.
Review of various deal considerations and deal structuring options (cash vs. stock) Common structural issues in a transaction (stock vs. asset, 338(h)(10) elections) Buyer and seller preferences for various deal structures and rationale Tax implications of transactions based on deal structure and FASB 142 goodwill amortization Brief discussion of upfront vs. deferred payments, employee retention and bonus pools.
Accretion Dilution Analysis.
Merger consequence analysis including accretion / dilution and financial implications of a deal Discussion of key components with financial impact on transactions Detailed explanation and analysis of line-by-line construction of accretion / dilution model Analysis of breakeven PE for both 100% stock and 100% cash considerations Contribution analysis and its relevant in the analytical process.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Company Profiles Corporate Valuation Methodologies Back to this topicBack to top.
Merger Modeling Basics.
This merger modeling course builds on top of our M&A Deal Structuring course in which you will build an accretion / dilution analysis, a generic "ability to pay" analysis, and a simple merger model slapping together two income statements, selected balance sheet items and cash flow sweep for debt payment. This course will allow you to quickly understand basics of merger modeling. To maximize your learning in this module, you need to absolutely understand the concepts in our M&A Deal Structuring course! This course serves as the backdrop to our super-advanced, complex merger modeling course.
Accretion Dilution Model.
Build dynamic merger consequence analysis (accretion / dilution) incorporating the following: Synergies switch, cash vs. stock sensitivity Amortization of goodwill switch (depending on purchase price allocation) Common structural issues: Stock vs asset deals and 338 (h)(10) elections Tax implications of transactions based on deal structure and FASB 142 goodwill amortization Analysis of breakeven PE for both 100% stock and 100% cash considerations Calculate pre-tax and after-tax synergies / cushion required to breakeven.
Ability to Pay Analysis.
Construct an "Ability to Pay" Analysis, a reverse Accretion / Dilution analysis Calculate maximum equity value and enterprise value based on cost of debt Sensitize analysis based on interest rates and pre-tax synergy assumptions.
Simple Merger Model.
Construct a merger model, simple combination of Income Statement for target and acquiror Project simple stand-alone Income Statement for both target and acquiror Analyze selected balance sheet figures and ratios and multiples Estimate target valuation and deal structure Calculate selected Pro Forma balance sheet items Combine target and acquiror's Income Statement and estimated synergies Calculate cash flow for debt repayments to estimate debt repayments and cash balances Compute interest expense and interest income based on paydowns Calculate accretion / dilution and credit ratios.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Company Overview Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model M&A Deal Structuring Efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Intermediate/Advanced Merger Modeling.
Our Intermediate/Advanced Merger Modeling course significantly builds upon our Merger Modeling Basics course. We go beyond the simple concepts of accretion /dilution and build additional precision into estimating the correct, pro forma combined earnings. First, enhance the Sources & Uses of Funds to allow for additional clarity in deal structure. Then, dive right into the fine details of the complex FASB 141/142 and IFRS 3 purchase price allocation rules and fair market value tangible assets step-up intertwined with intangibles asset allocation. We tackle and quantify the resulting nuances in deferred tax liabilities and better quantify our synergies estimates. Participants should have mastered the merger concepts and financial modeling techniques covered in our M&A Deal Structuring and Merger Modeling Basics course.
Construct a merger model, simple combination of Income Statement for target and acquiror.
Project simple stand-alone Income Statement for both target and acquiror Analyze selected balance sheet figures and ratios and multiples Estimate target valuation and deal structure.
Build an expanded Sources and Uses of Funds analysis that controls the merger model.
Utilize cash from the acquiror to fund the merger, balanced with minimum cash balances Dynamically handle different percent cash and stock deal structures Incorporate target net debt refinanced / assumed Calculate and incorporate proper treatment of debt financing fees and transaction costs.
Merge target and acquiror income statements and calculate starting balance sheet items.
Calculate selected Pro Forma balance sheet items (full B. S. not projected) Combine target and acquiror's Income Statement Estimate various types of synergies – revenue, COGS and SG&A synergies.
Estimate condensed Cash Flow Statement and simplified Debt Sweep.
Calculate cash flow for debt repayments to estimate debt repayments and cash balances Compute interest expense and interest income based on paydowns Calculate accretion / dilution and credit ratios.
Calculation of Purchase Price Allocation (FASB 141/142 and IFRS 3)
Allocate purchase price among tangible book value (existing assets at cost), step-up in basis to FMV, tax deductible and non-tax deductible identifiable intangibles and goodwill Proper accounting treatment of transaction costs, tender costs and accrued interest of any refinanced debt and debt transaction financing fees Account for differences in GAAP book deductibility and tax deductibility of intangible assets Build in the ability to treat acquisitions as an asset sale for tax treatment.
Pré-requisitos
Basic Financial Modeling M&A Deal Structuring Merger Modeling Basics Efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Merger Modeling: Earnout Structuring.
This Merger Modeling – Earnout Discussion module builds upon our M&A Deal Structuring and Merger Modeling Basics course by reconciling differences that arise in private middle-market transactions in which a buyer wants to be rewarded for future growth and a seller is only willing to pay for growth that has been achieved. But, the seller reckons, "why should I sell when I believe I can achieve greater growth and then sell for an even larger valuation at that future point?" The main tool to bridge this gap is for the seller to put his money where his mouth is - if you say you can achieve $1 billion of revenue, then prove it - one should be willing to accept deferred, contingent payments for such future growth that has yet to be realized. In this add-on module, we explore different ways to analyze and structure earnouts.
Construct a sample earnout model based on a base earnout and a "super-earnout":
Create a two-tiered earnout structure that is dependent on achieving management projections Structure earnout based on both Revenue and EBITDA targets Evaluate the "base" target financial goals and calculate corridor earned Review best practices in calculating the actual earnout earned Repeat analysis for second earnout tier, the "super-earnout", a much more difficult to achieve set of financial projections Evaluate pros and cons of being too optimistic in management projections vs. being too pessimistic.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Basic Financial Modeling M&A Deal Structuring Merger Modeling Basics Segment Build-up & Sensitivity Modeling Private Company Pro Forma Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
Super Advanced M&A Merger Modeling.
The goal of this course is quite simple and yet extremely complex in implementation: build an all-out, full combination and merger analysis of target and acquirer company, integrating full projection model for both. This course will allow you to build one of the most dynamic, sophisticated and complex merger models out there, slapping together complete Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement, brand new, highly complex Debt Sweep and Interest schedule for the two companies and combined merged entity. Determine deal structure, purchase price allocation and tax deductibility, accretion / dilution and a whole host of issues.
Learning objectives include: (i) calculate Sources & Uses of Funds, post-transaction ownership, accretion / dilution; (ii) combine Target and Acquiror Income Statements and incorporate synergies into pro forma merger model; (iii) calculate pro forma, post-transaction opening Balance Sheet and project future combined Balance Sheet; (iv) derive combined Cash Flow Statement, dept sweep & interest schedule to balance and integrate model.
The core LBO model serves as the beginning model for the target company in this Complex, Super-Advanced Merger Modeling course and as such, you must have completed the Complex LBO Modeling course first to have the model!
Merger Summary & Sensitivity Options.
Sensitize deal structure options, including stock & cash consideration Construct Sources & Uses of Funds including various financing scenarios and ability to refinance any existing debt and utilize existing excess cash to fund acquisition Calculate correct transaction value incorporating economic effect of management options Calculate post-transaction ownership summary Allocate purchase price among tangible book value (existing assets at cost), step-up in basis to FMV, tax deductible identifiable intangibles, non-tax deductible identifiable intangibles and goodwill Proper accounting treatment of transaction costs, tender costs and accrued interest of any refinanced debt and debt transaction financing fees Account for differences in GAAP book deductibility and tax deductibility of intangible assets Build ability to treat acquisitions as an asset sale for tax treatment Line-by-line combination of Target & Acquiror Income Statements including revenue and expense synergies and correctly depreciation and amortization of assets from purchase price allocation analysis Calculate pro forma, post-transaction EPS, accretion / dilution analyst and pre-tax synergies / cushion required to breakeven Project tax levels, incorporating permanent differences in book vs. tax deductibility of intangible assets Combine Target & Acquiror Balance Sheets and perform transaction adjustment entries to calculate pro forma opening Balance Sheet Calculate projected Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement of combined merged company Analyze & construct complex debt schedule to sweep through mandatory & discretionary debt payments Ability to dynamically pay down tranches of Target & Acquiror's debt and new debt raised Calculate pro forma and projected credit & leverage statistics and automatically evaluate debt ratings of merged company.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Company Profiles and Corporate Valuation Methodologies Company Overview and Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model & Enhancements M&A Deal Structuring and Merger Modeling Basics LBO Overview and Quick & Dirty LBO Model Complex LBO Model & Enhancements Super extreme efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Banker's Law: Legal Aspects of Transactions (NDA, Due Diligence, SPA)
The nondisclosure agreement (NDA) and purchase agreement are two of the most important legal documents that bankers and other finance professionals need to be proficient with during a transaction. The NDA is one of the first agreements to be signed during the negotiation phase. This document lays out the boundaries surrounding what information is confidential. In the NDA portion of this course, you will learn what major components to expect in an NDA. The purchase agreement is also a vital document outlining the legal details of an M&A transaction. The goal is to translate the financial terms of the deal into proper legal protections for both parties. We will walk you through the various sections found in almost all M&A purchase agreements, with detailed explanations of what they mean and how they are all pieced together.
One of the most, if not the most, important parts of an M&A deal is the due diligence process. You may have heard about "kicking the tires" and putting boots on the ground to see what really goes on in a business, but that is just a portion of the legwork required. Comprehensive paperwork, rigorous cross-referencing, and in-depth research are all key to understanding what exactly is being offered for sale. In this course, explore the rationale behind what the respective buyers and sellers are looking for, including the qualitative and quantitative risks associated with the potential transaction. A substantial set of checklists has developed throughout the storied history of the M&A industry, and it is the banker's job to competently meet the long list of information requests that clients make.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Review the various sections of a standard NDA and understand how seller/target tries to protect itself Know what to expect in a purchase agreement, and what changes hands when one is executed Understand the purpose of the due diligence process, and who conducts it Step into the shoes of an acquiror or investor investigating all aspects of a business, from operational to regulatory and everything in between in validating the assumptions behind transactions.
Course Sections.
Due Diligence for Dummies.
What does due diligence entail? In what cases is financial due diligence required? When and where does this process typically take place? Which parts of due diligence are supposed to be quantitative vs. qualitative? Besides financial due diligence, what other types (tax, legal, operational, etc.) are there?
The Due Diligence Process.
What are all the steps involved in the due diligence process? Who are the parties responsible for compiling and organizing the initial due diligence information? Who performs the actual due diligence? What is a "data room" and what belongs inside of it? How might it change throughout the course of a deal?
Corporate Due Diligence.
What documents should be reviewed to verify the validity, scope, and reach of the business's incorporation? What are the relevant pieces of a company's history, such as its product lines and management team? How many subsidiaries of this business exist? Where do they operate, and how are they structured? Are there any synergies available? If so, what are their potential revenue increases and cost reductions? What are all the contracts between the parties involved, such as license agreements, purchase agreements, insurance contracts, and equipment leases/loans?
Marketing/Sales Due Diligence.
What can you find out about the market in which the target operates? Have there been external studies? Which trends can people working closely in this industry identify and support? What are the key relevant facts regarding branding, customer relationships, distribution, and sales? Is there a cohesive product development pipeline? What makes their products/services profitable or unique?
Human Resources Due Diligence.
How will the deal account for compensation and benefit plans? Are there plans for cultural and logistical transitioning programs? How can you smooth out the various employee-related issues that will arise, such as personnel costs, executive compensation, dismissal costs, and more?
Operational/IT Due Diligence.
When is it possible to increase operational efficiency in the wake of a merger or acquisition? Why is operational transparency vital to enhancing the value of the enterprise? Which costs and capacities associated with the production/manufacturing process should be determined? Are the information technology and business technology solutions currently in place secure and efficient?
Financial Due Diligence.
Which sections of the balance sheet need to be accounted for and assessed? How do you challenge both a target's historic and projected financial data? What are the critical factors behind working capital, insurance, and debt forecasts? What records are commonly requested? Why might supplier lists, customer lists, inventory lists and financial statements be of interest to buyers/investors?
PP&E Due Diligence.
How can you value all equipment and fixed assets currently owned or leased by the business? What are all of the required official documents regarding the target's real property? Are there any plans to relocate or expand? If so, what will be the resulting financial and legal impacts?
Legal and Environmental Due Diligence.
Which legal documents must be secured and verified? Is there any current or potential litigation? What about past claims and lawsuits, threatened or otherwise? What intellectual property considerations are required? How have past IP lawsuits affected the business? How is the current state of research and development, and what are the documentation policies? What complications arise from cross-jurisdictional transactions? Which regulatory bodies will govern legal and environmental matters?
Purchase Agreements: Overview.
What are the primary sections of a purchase agreement, and how do they vary across deals? At which point of a deal is a purchase agreement drafted? What is the difference between a letter of intent (LOI) and an indication of interest (IOI)? Traditionally, who provides the first draft of a purchase agreement?
Purchase Agreements: Purchase Price Adjustments.
How are post-closing adjustments to the final purchase price handled? What are earnouts and milestone payments? What is the rationale behind Net Working Capital Adjustments, and which specific provisions apply? What other types of purchase price adjustments are typically available?
Purchase Agreements: Legal Deal Structure.
In a business combination, what will the corporate structure of the surviving entity be? How do stock purchases, asset purchases, tender offers, and mergers all differ? Which structures are preferable to buyers and to sellers? For stock purchases and asset purchases, what exactly changes hands between the parties, and how? How is the acquisition or transfer of intellectual property handled? Assess the pros and cons of the various deal structures, including tax, liability, and other implications in the following structures: stock / asset deal for cash and/or stock; basic and triangular mergers; spin-off and split-offs and reverse mergers.
Purchase Agreements: Merger Consideration.
What is the valuation methodology behind the acquiring party's shares? What mechanisms are in place to address floors and caps for the value and price of issued shares? How do seller-financed notes, contingent & installment payments affect the deal structure? If stock is involved, how are ownership rights and the conversion of fractional shares determined?
Purchase Agreements: Representations and Warranties.
How are representations and warranties outlined? Who will own what? Which aspects of the business being sold are accounted for in a purchase agreement? How do these relate to the due diligence process?
Purchase Agreements: Covenants.
What are some examples of covenants that are agreed upon in between the signing and closing phases? How are regulatory - and financing-related covenants structured? What are the differences between "best efforts" and "reasonable efforts" to close the deal? Which post-merger covenants are most typical, such as employee considerations?
Purchase Agreements: Indemnification.
What do exclusive remedy provisions entail, and which exceptions are often covered? What limitations on liability are commonly found in purchase agreements? What is sandbagging? What contractual approaches may be taken to handle indemnification? For how long are acquirers usually indemnified? What affects the duration of this period? What are baskets and caps? What is the general trend in the M&A universe?
Purchase Agreements: Completion and Complications.
What is the seller obligated to deliver upon closing the transaction? How might an M&A deal face complications? How does the purchase agreement handle these, if at all? What are the standard conditions precedent that govern the buyer's and seller's obligations before the deal can successfully go through? Back to this topicBack to top.
6. LBO Modeling.
Our LBO modeling courses introduce critical skills required for properly understanding and quantifying capital structure changes from simple share repurchases to the extreme of a leveraged buyout. The techniques and concepts learned in building proper, robust, dynamic and flexible LBO models are highly valued given the relatively difficult nature of setting up, quantifying and articulating the complex relationships and intricacies of the LBO. We clearly convey the complexities involved in understanding the deal structure, sources & uses, refinancing options, credit ratios and the all-important debt sweep.
Leveraged Buyout Overview.
This course provides a basic overview and introduction to leveraged buyouts, including discussion of rationale for 'going private', ideal LBO candidate, drivers of value. The following items are discussed, including description, importance, implications and general thoughts on: valuation, debt capacity, scenario analysis, sources & uses of funds, rollover equity, pro forma capital structure, purchase vs. recap accounting, goodwill treatment and other issues. You will gain some basic & fundamental knowledge required to understand LBO transactions. The purpose of this course is to introduce some of the terminology and concepts required for our Quick & Dirty LBO Modeling and Complex LBO Modeling courses.
Valuation Summary Maximum Debt Capacity Refinancing Scenarios Expenses – Definitions and Accounting Treatment Sources and Uses of Funds Equity Sources and Rollover Equity Interest Rate Scenarios Pro Forma Capital Structure Purchase Accounting vs. Recapitalization Accounting Goodwill Calculation / Treatment and Amortization (FASB 141/142) Pro Forma Opening Balance Sheet & Adjustments Pro Forma Shareholder's Equity Treatment Cash Flow Statement and Debt Sweep Adjustments and Expansion.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Finance 101 – Introduction to Finance Corporate Valuation Methodologies Back to this topicBack to top.
Quick & amp; Dirty Basic LBO Model.
In the normal course of running a company, the CFO must balance capital requirements with capital sources of funds. Changes to the capital structure are not insignificant as each component of capital has an opportunity cost. In this course, we introduce the impact of changes in capital structure and the resulting impact on a company's decision to borrow vs. raise equity. We quantify the thought process and the logic that dictates one or the other by examining both extremes of capital structure changes: from a simple small share repurchase to the opposite spectrum, the leveraged buyout. This class examines and incorporates all the major inputs and value drivers of capital structure changes by building a short, quick and dirty LBO analysis, providing an excellent condensed overview and introduction to LBO modeling. As LBOs are risky and complex financial transactions, sometimes, building a full-out, complex LBO model is not necessary or required if one just wants to quickly gauge the feasibility of an LBO.
Learning Objectives Discussion on leveraged buyouts, including overview, rationale, ideal candidate and drivers of value Construct and sensitize a basic, quick and dirty, leveraged buyout model Incorporate fundamental drivers including Sources & Uses, Pro Forma, post-LBO projections, available cash flow, debt sweep, credit ratios and IRR.
Intermediate/Advanced LBO Modeling.
This course builds upon our Share Repurchase and Quick & Dirty LBO modeling courses which quantifies changes to capital structure and opportunity cost and our Basic, Quick & Dirty LBO modeling course. We start off by diving deeper into the typical LBO deal structure and then expand upon the different components of the Sources & Uses analysis; projecting selected critical Balance Sheet items; constructing more detailed Cash Flow Statement estimates and robust Debt Sweep, as well as triangulating IRRs for dividends to equity sponsor. Learning objectives include: construct and sensitize an advanced leveraged buyout model with many nuances and complications of our full-blown complex LBO model; incorporate fundamental drivers including Sources & Uses, Pro Forma, post-LBO projections, available cash flow, debt sweep, credit ratios and IRR; selected Pro Forma Balance Sheet items, Debt and Shareholder Equity accounts; Debt Sweep: incorporate Term Loan mandatory amortization and integrating and sweeping additional new and existing debt tranches; sensitize core IRR to equity sponsor as well as triangulate IRR.
Build an expanded Sources and Uses of Funds analysis that dictates LBO value Sources of Funds: inclusion of rollover equity, detailed debt structure & maximizing debt capacity Uses of Funds: ability to toggle refinancing of existing debt, excess cash usage, proper treatment of debt financing fees, tender costs and transaction costs Construct a Pro Forma, post-LBO Income Statement projection model incorporating LBO changes Calculate new, Pro Forma interest expense and amortization of debt financing fees Calculate cash flow available to firm through expanded debt sweep pay off high debt volumes Constructed simulated Cash Flow Statement, including CFO, CFI and CFF Expanded Debt Sweep schedule to flow through various debt items Incorporate Term Loan mandatory amortization and dynamic pre-payment Integrate and sweep through additional new and existing debt tranches Create condensed IRR (internal rate of return) analysis to evaluate financial sponsor returns Comparison of IRR to multiple of capital as a return metric and benchmark Identify true source of returns, from building of equity to time value of money Compare and contrast returns trends based on exit multiple contraction or expansion Discussion on why highly levered transactions must exit within 3 to 5 years Analyze and partially quantify the trend towards dividends to financial sponsor as opposed to debt paydown Triangulate IRR when there are unequal cash flow returns to equity sponsor primarily through dividends Analyze basic credit and leverage statistics and equity sources that drive the LBO model.
Pré-requisitos
Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model M&A Deal Structuring Merger Modeling Basics LBO Overview Quick & Dirty LBO Modeling Efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Complex LBO Modeling & LBO Model Enhancements.
Layer a complex LBO model on top core standalone projection model and build one of the most dynamic, sophisticated and complex LBO models out there. This is a highly complex and a very advanced modeling class and requires an absolute grasp of all basic and advanced accounting and financial concepts. Your finished LBO model will be a highly versatile and functional financial model able to capture and sensitize a great deal of inputs to project a realistic and more precise outcome including the ability to toggle between status quo, standalone model vs. all-out LBO vs. partial recap. The core LBO model serves as the beginning model for the target company in our Complex, Super-Advanced Merger Modeling course.
Significantly enhance the LBO model by incorporating the following: PIKs (Paid-In-Kind), warrants and partial, less than 100% recapitalization. Further modify LBO model for mezzanine debt, non-cash interest, issue warrants and modify equity acquired. Incorporate all enhancements into end-all IRR analysis by significantly scaling out returns calculation via massive triangulation of cash flows.
Standalone Projection Model.
Build standalone, fully-integrated projection model that serves as the core model for the LBO model and to check final LBO model against status quo, no transaction scenario. Mirrors our Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model course.
LBO Summary.
Layer LBO model on top by modifying core standalone projection model Build the ever-so-critical "LBO Summary" page that controls all the drivers and inputs of the LBO model: valuation metrics, maximum debt capacity, Sources and Uses of Funds Sensitize the LBO with the following options: recapitalization vs. purchase accounting, interest rate scenarios, refinancing scenarios Incorporate proper accounting treatment of expenses (debt transaction financing fees, tender costs and transactions costs) Calculate equity sources and rollover equity and financial implications Create Pro Forma capital structure and opening balance sheet incorporating transaction adjustments Calculate goodwill incorporating the FAS 141 and 142 goodwill amortization rules Toggle between various LBO scenarios and no transaction for valuation purposes.
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement Adjustments.
Translate LBO summary and deal structure into Pro Forma Opening Balance Sheet Balance Sheet adjustments include: cash changes, goodwill, capitalization of expenses, debt and capital structure modifications Properly calculate and incorporate Pro Forma Shareholder's Equity treatment Cash Flow Statement modifications including updating existing share repurchase and dividends model.
Expanded Debt Sweep and IRR.
Debt Sweep expansion including integrating and sweeping additional debt tranches Expand debt sweep to account for new debt issued and discretionary cash flow recapture Construct credit & leverage ratios and automate credit ratings Create IRR (internal rate of return) analysis to evaluate financial sponsor returns Complete complex LBO model with Status Quo, standalone model vs. all-out LBO toggle Introduce enhancements and complications into your LBO model to account for various transaction structures and more complex securities typically issued in an LBO transaction. Incorporate mezzanine securities with PIKs (paid-in-kind) Account for dilution due to warrants attached to preferred securities Enhance LBO model to dynamically incorporate recapitalizations (vs. full LBOs) Properly modify and significantly expand IRR analysis to include effect of enhancements.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Company Profiles and Corporate Valuation Methodologies Company Overview and Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model & Enhancements M&A Deal Structuring and Merger Modeling Basics LBO Overview and Quick & Dirty LBO Model Super extreme efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
7. Industry-Specific Modeling.
In order to succeed and climb to the top, at some point, one must eventually specialize in a specific sector or industry after having enough product knowledge. Our industry specific modeling courses focus on unique industries in which generic terminology either doesn't apply or needs to be more detailed, including sectors such as banks, insurance, real estate, oil & gas and other industries.
Distressed Investing Overview.
Learn how to analyze and value distressed companies and securities undergoing restructuring or bankruptcy process. First, appreciate and understand the historical perspective and context of the distressed market. Then, explore various opportunities in distressed investing from securities types to investment strategies. Properly identify and isolate the true sources and drivers of returns from supply & demand to operational changes to market rebound to recapitalizations. Quantify and comprehend the dramatic changes to a distressed firmУі capital structure and the implications on the valuation process and realignment of economics. Understand the reorganization and bankruptcy process, including DIP (debtor-in-possession) financing, Section 363 sales (stalking horse), Chapter 11 reorganization, and Chapter 7 liquidation. Fully comprehend the key critical covenants required involved in distressed securities as well as the entire turnaround & restructuring process by identifying key parameters for successful business plan implementation.
Distressed Investing Overview.
Various definitions of distressed and causes of distressed securities Understanding different securities types to invest in based on investment strategy.
Investment Strategies & Valuation.
Understanding and taking advantage of capital structure arbitrage opportunities DIP (Debtor-In-Possession) financing and the controversial roll-up DIP Identifying all-important fulcrum security and impact on valuation and returns.
Bankruptcy: Legal Aspects & Chapter 11.
Brief overview to Chapter 11 - Reorganization Process and impact on distressed investing in US Section 363 sales & stalking horse bidderУі impact on determining success of Chapter 11 process.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Basic Financial Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
Distressed Financial Modeling.
Learn how to model and value distressed companies and securities undergoing restructuring or bankruptcy process. Build upon our Distressed Investing Overview course by quantifying the dramatic changes to a distressed firm's capital structure and the implications on the valuation process and realignment of economics. Build robust distressed sensitivity financial model. Learning objectives include: model out sample distressed company on a standalone basis, with and without restructuring; incorporate detailed valuation sensitivity to identify key value drivers in a distressed situation; analyze the fulcrum security based on various valuation and leverage scenarios.
Distressed Financial Modeling.
Summarize pre-petition capital structure of distressed situation & determine normalized valuation Construct standalone Income Statement project of distressed company Layer on various restructuring and turnaround scenarios Evaluate & analyze decision to restructure and understand financial implications on valuation Construct super-dynamic and flexible model to automate new vs. old cash flow capital structure.
Distressed Financial Modeling & Sensitivity Analysis:
Construct robust sensitivity analysis to determine ultimate recovery to capital structure classes Sensitize distressed model based on leverage, valuation, new pro forma capital structure Analyze what constitutes a "bad" deal and its implications for the distressed investor Understand and appreciate various financial stakeholders and inherent conflicts of interest Quantify and evaluate the importance of determining the right fulcrum security.
Pré-requisitos
Distressed Investing Overview Back to this topicBack to top.
Oil & amp; Gas Industry Primer & Modelagem Financeira.
The energy industry impacts everyone in one way or another, from commuters to bottled water consumers. Oil and natural gas are the world's leading energy supply, with gas stations in every neighborhood fueling cars and trucks that travel millions of miles a day. Supporting the entire oil & gas sector is the entire oil & gas services ecosystem.
We begin with an oil & gas services industry primer by introducing the oil & gas field development cycle and the corresponding supporting oil services, from feasibility studies to contract drilling from onshore to offshore, marine-based oil rigs. Drill into the drilling related services & equipment and understand casing and completion to infrastructure & installation and production & maintenance.
Then we focus on analyzing a leading global oil & gas services provider (Haliburton). We will build and constructing the detailed segment build-up portion of the financial model that feeds the Income Statement of your oil & gas services financial model. Understand various industry conventions for rig counts (SWACO and Baker Hughes).
Oil & Gas Services Industry Primer.
What exactly is oil & gas? How did oil start? Who started it? Products that use petroleum; different types of oil (light vs. heavy, sweet vs. sour) Worldwide oil benchmarks and why they matter Onshore well drilling and pumping; primary and secondary recovery Offshore drilling from start to finish, including various drilling platform types Mining oil sands; what is special about bitumen?
The energy industry impacts everyone in one way or another, from commuters to bottled water consumers. Oil and natural gas are the world's leading energy supply, with gas stations in every neighborhood fueling cars and trucks that travel millions of miles a day. However, oil's ubiquity should not be mistaken for simplicity; sound investment decisions require the exploration of the many intricacies within this space.
The energy industry impacts everyone in one way or another, from commuters to bottled water consumers. Oil and natural gas are the world's leading energy supply, with gas stations in every neighborhood fueling cars and trucks that travel millions of miles a day. However, oil's ubiquity should not be mistaken for simplicity; sound investment decisions require the exploration of the many intricacies within this space.
Bank Industry Primer & Financial Modeling.
Bank Industry Primer.
Balance sheet based companies, such as banks, play by different rules and methodologies based on the unique nature of their business. Focus is placed on our Commercial Banks financial statements primer which dives deep into a bank's unique financial statement terminology and drivers. Understand how to analyze a bank and why the standard financial analysis and valuation methodologies that apply to most companies do not apply to industries that "use money to make money". Start with a brief overview of the main banking functions (commercial, investment, asset management) and quickly turn to the quality of book of loans and analysis of net vs gross charge-offs vs provisions, etc. Understand the critical credit ratios and capital adequacy analysis as well as Tier 1 and II definitions and Basel II impact. Crystallize the impact of Interest Rates, importance of term structure and credit spreads and implications on a bank's profitability. Examine best practices in calculating net interest income via average asset and liability balances on the income statement. Dive into an analysis of Balance Sheet assets & liabilities and articulate the drivers of EPS growth. Wrap up by analyzing valuation parameters: key banking valuation multiples (PE, PEG, Book Value, ROE).
Banking Industry Overview.
Overview of main banking functions (commercial, investment, asset management) Quality of book of loans and analysis of net charge-offs Critical credit ratios and capital adequacy analysis; Tier 1 and 2 definitions and Basel impact Impact of Interest Rates, importance of term structure and credit spreads.
Banking Financial Statement Terminology & Drivers.
Net Interest Income Margin (Interest Expense net against Revenue not COGS) Analysis of Balance Sheet Assets & Liabilities Drivers of EPS growth Valuation Parameters: key banking valuation multiples (PE, PEG, Book Value, ROE)
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Basic Financial Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
Basic Bank Financial Modeling.
Build a basic, streamlined bank financial model that builds upon the bank terminology in our Bank Industry Primer course. Before diving deep into the complex nuances of our Advanced Bank Financial Model, really solidify your understanding of developing the logic in loan losses and provisions and its impact on the rest of the larger bank financial statements. Perform quick back-of-the-envelope calculations for key Balance Sheet items such as Interest Earning Assets and Interest Bearing Liabilities, which yield Net Interest Income. Estimate and calculate capital adequacy ratios to wrap up your summary simplified basic bank model.
Pré-requisitos
Bank Industry Primer Back to this topicBack to top.
Intermediate Bank Financial Modeling.
Construct a more robust bank financial model by building a bank balance sheet and derived income statement. Project gross loan balance, provisions for credit losses, gross charge-offs, recoveries, net charge-offs, net loan balance based on important key trends and ratios. Predict the critical funding requirements on the liability side of the balance sheet to support the loans and asset side. Learn the techniques and best practices to balancing the bank model. Examine different techniques to estimate the crucial interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. Estimate asset yield, funding costs and net interest spread to minimize forecasting error. Identify line items that constitute non-interest fee revenue beyond using simple percent growth rates. Incorporate and integrate provision for credit losses. Calculate compensation and overhead expenses and leave with a completed balance sheet and income statement. Make sure you master the concepts in this Intermediate class before diving into our Advanced Bank Financial Modeling course.
Pré-requisitos
Bank Industry Primer Basic Bank Financial Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
Advanced Bank Financial Modeling.
The standard financial analysis and valuation methodologies that apply to most companies do not apply to industries that "use money to make money". Balance Sheet based companies, such as banks, play by different rules and methodologies based on the unique nature of their businesses. First, start off with an interactive primer on commercial banks and their financial statement terminology and drivers. Then, build a fully integrated bank financial model that addresses the key drivers of profitability, cash flow, and valuation. Focus is placed on: projecting the Balance Sheet line items which drive the entire model; estimating interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities which drives profitability; projecting loan portfolio growth, provisions for credit losses, and net charge-offs which determine overall impact on the financial statements. Complete the model by projecting different fee revenue sources and integrating the Cash Flow Statement. Finish the model by calculating and analyzing capital adequacy ratios, financial performance indicators and valuation metrics.
Balance Sheet:
Project gross loan balance, provisions for credit losses, gross charge-offs, recoveries, net charge-offs, net loan balance based on important key trends and ratios Analyze detailed components of and balance scope vs depth in projecting mix of loan portfolio Project the critical funding requirements on the liability side of the Balance Sheet to support the loans and asset side of the Balance Sheet based on bank modeling best practices Dynamically calculate the critical fed funds sold and purchased line items Properly incorporate the equity account based on financing activities from Cash Flow Statement Calculate crucial interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities from the Balance Sheet Estimate asset yield, funding costs and net interest spread to minimize forecasting error.
Income Statement:
Calculate future Net Interest Income and margin from IEA and IBL Project line items that constitute non-interest fee revenue beyond using simple % growth rates Incorporate and dynamically integrate provision for credit losses on IS and BS Estimate compensation and overhead expenses to round out the Income Statement Correctly incorporate and integrate share buybacks and issuances, treasury options, restricted stock units and stock-based compensation into all three financial statements (IS, BS, CF)
Cash Flow Statement:
Construct automated Cash Flow Statement based on the Income Statement and Balance Sheet Differentiate between a bank's financial statements by properly allocating and including correct components of CFO, CFI and CFF Understand and appreciate which line items are impossible to calculate independently and must be lumped and grouped together to arrive at the net impact instead of tediously (and incorrectly) trying to project every single item Build more supporting detailed schedules to project dividends and stock repurchases and issuances and have it properly flow through the rest of the financials.
Financial & Capital Ratios and Valuation Metrics:
Construct and analyze internal profitability ratios to analyze core performance of the bank Calculate profitability ratios and asset utilization ratios for direct comparisons Reconstruct and estimate Tier I and Total Capital (Tier I and II) , risk weighted assets, adjusted assets and corresponding capital adequacy ratios for regulatory supervision Calculate current market multiples and valuation metrics relevant for a bank.
Pré-requisitos
Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model M&A Deal Structuring Merger Modeling Basics LBO Overview Quick & Dirty LBO Modeling Efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Insurance Industry Primer & Financial Modeling.
Balance sheet based companies, such as insurance companies, play by different rules and methodologies based on the unique nature of their business. Focus is placed on our Insurance Industry primer which dives deep into an insurance company's unique financial statement terminology and drivers. Distinguish between P&C (Property & Casulaty) and L&H (Life & Health) insurance companies. Comprehend all the major players along the insurance spectrum from retail to wholesale brokers, to MGAs and MGUs and captive carriers and much more. Understand the different types of insurance, reinsurance and their financial statement impact. On the Income Statement, differentiate between the different types of premiums (direct, ceded, net, written, earned); comprehend loss triangles and the main differences between statutory vs GAAP accounting. On the Balance Sheet, understand key assets line items (premiums receivable, reinsurance recoverable, prepaid reinsurance premiums) as well as the liabilities (loss & lae reserve, unearned premium reserve). Understand insurance valuation parameters: key insurance multiples (PE, book value, premium/surplus).
Insurance Industry Overview.
Types of Insurance: Property & Casualty vs Life & Health Insurance industry players and their functions, roles and value-add Modern insurance industry structure Reinsurance and retrocession: types (quota-share vs. XOL) and their impact on financials.
Insurance Financial Statement Terminology & Drivers.
IS: Premiums: Direct vs Ceded vs. Net and Written vs. Earned vs. UEPR IS: Losses Incurred and LAE Incurred (ALAE vs ULAE) and Commissions vs. DAC Statutory vs GAAP Net Income – main differences BS Assets: Premiums Receivable, Reinsurance Recoverable, Prepaid Reinsurance Premiums BS Liabilities: Loss & LAE Reserve, Unearned Premium Reserve Valuation Parameters: key insurance multiples (PE, Book Value, Premium/Surplus)
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Basic Financial Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
Basic Insurance Company Financial Modeling.
Build a basic, streamlined insurance company financial model that builds upon the insurance financial statements terminology in our Insurance Industry Primer course. Before diving deep into the complex nuances of our Advanced Insurance Company Financial Model, really solidify your understanding of the major items on an insurance company's Income Statement and Balance Sheet. Take the time to further immerse yourself with understanding insurance.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Basic Financial Modeling Insurance Industry Primer Back to this topicBack to top.
Advanced Insurance Company Financial Modeling.
Build a fully integrated, scalable, new insurance company model including detailed build-up by line of business from Gross Written Premiums to Net Premiums down to Underwriting Income. Consolidate the lines of business performance into a GAAP Income Statement with statutory adjustments. Integrate income statement projections with a self-balancing balance sheet, an automated cash flow statement and the balancing cash flow sweep schedule. Learning objectives include: build an integrated set of financials, including LOB, income statement, balance sheet & cash flow; project direct, ceded and net premiums and underwriting income based on assumed loss triangles; consolidate multiple lines of businesses, calculate GAAP and Stat Net Income with Tax Schedule; project self-balancing balance sheet including items such as premiums receivable and recoverables.
Line of Business Breakdown:
Project gross written and earned premiums, from direct down to ceded and net Incorporate fundamentals drivers of premiums including premiums growth and rate changes Calculate unearned premium reserve and flow that back into larger financial model Calculate Loss & LAE and reserves – construct critical paid and reserve loss triangles based on payout patterns and different "tail" assumptions Estimate ceded quota share and XOL amounts, which results in the "grossed up" Balance Sheet Generate net premiums, losses, commission expense and underwriting income Consolidate multiple lines of business into Consolidating Income Statement.
Income Statement:
Calculate all revenue items including various top-line premiums and investment income Calculate total expenses including underwriting expenses and other relevant expenses Tax schedule to properly adjust for deferred acquisition costs (DAC) and any NOLs Adjust from GAAP Net Income to estimated Statutory Net Income.
Balance Sheet:
Project cash & invested assets balances, which is the ultimate balancer for insurance companies Project premiums receivable, reinsurance recoverables and other relevant insurance assets Derive loss reserves, unearned premium reserves, and other relevant insurance liabilities Learn how to cast a proper GAAP Balance Sheet based on these "grossed up" balances Project shareholders' equity account including APIC, retained earnings, etc.
Cash Flow Statement and Sweep:
Calculate CFO (including working capital), CFI and CFF Build cash flow sweep to capture any shortfalls / build-up in cash to balance the entire model Build interest schedule to fully integrate the model What are circular references, why should they be avoided and how to get around circular references.
Internal Rate of Return (IRR):
Project returns to financial sponsor / investor based on financial model.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Basic Financial Modeling Insurance Industry Primer Back to this topicBack to top.
Real Estate Development Modeling.
Evaluate the financial feasibility of a greenfield real estate development project. Determine the valuation of an empty plot of land by developing and building different lots, houses and condos. First, incorporate infrastructure costs required for a master plan development. Then dynamically differentiate among developing empty lots, building single family houses, and constructing & selling condominiums. Account for variability in construction timelines for different types of properties and sensitize the master financial model for various per unit and per square foot costs as the project is in planning, construction and post-construction phases. Learn how to quickly modify assumptions to customize the model to reflect a poor operating environment as the pace of lot sales significantly decline. In addition, learn how to determine optimal funding mix of equity vs. debt based on project cash flows and IRR.
Build a sample master plan which involves buying raw land, creating community-wide infrastructure (shared utilities and resources that didn't previously exist) and then constructing buildings for sale or rent Understand timeline and construction costs associated with common land and unit specific development Model out monthly revenues based on assumptions regarding pre-sales volume, deposits, and various phases of planning, construction and post-construction Map out draw down of construction costs and final cash flow stream which dictate capital required, influencing IRR and multiple of capital.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Basic Financial Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
Hotel Development.
Evaluate and analyze the acquisition, construction and renovation of a boutique hotel. Quantify hotel-specific construction costs and Sources & Uses of Funds. Perform detailed construction loan analysis that rolls into larger debt funding facility. Funnel into the core projection, estimating REVPAR (revenue per available room), various revenue streams and operating expenses. Compute management incentives and ultimately roll into Net Cash Flow and IRR.
Build a sample hotel investment analysis which involves buying land, constructing or renovating a new boutique hotel, industry standards in raising debt capital and of course ultimately, P&L and cash flow analysis to determine returns Model out detailed construction loan analysis with various drawdown percentages and interest reserves which feeds the amortization schedule of larger debt funding facility Construct projection model based on key factors such as room-nights available, occupancy rates, daily room rate, REVPAR and other relevant factors.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Basic Financial Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
REIT Financial Modeling.
REITs, REIT Terminology and REIT Market:
Overview of REITs, terminology and legal structure (ie UPREIT) REIT profitability and performance metrics including FFO, AFFO, straight-lining and FAS 141.
Acquisitions:
Model out future quarterly projected acquisition volume based on historical trends Estimate revenue, expenses, margins and NOI Calculate associated estimated depreciation expense.
Dispositions:
Model out future quarterly projected dispositions based on historical trends Estimate revenue, expenses, margins and NOI Estimate gross proceeds, gain/loss, net book and change to accumulated depreciation.
New Development:
Model out future quarterly projected development starts and completions Estimate revenue, expenses, margins and NOI Calculate net change to development properties, construction in process and investments.
Income Statement:
Consolidate acquisitions, dispositions & development figures into Consolidating Income Statement Calculate revenue and NOI including rental revenue and real estate expenses Calculate total expenses down to EBITDA, Net Income, FFO and EPS.
Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement and Sweep:
Project investments, CIP, land under development and all asset and liability balances Calculate CFO (including working capital), CFI and CFF items specific to REITs Build cash flow sweep to capture any shortfalls / build-up in cash to balance the entire model Build interest schedule to fully integrate the model Incorporate capitalized interest expense estimates, convertible notes and share repurchases What are circular references, why should they be avoided and how to get around them.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling – Core Model Back to this topicBack to top.
Credit & Risk Analysis Training.
Tangential to financial modeling and valuation is credit analysis. We take the typical dry boring credit training and tweak it with perspectives from the buy-side credit point of view. This allows for a much broader and yet, simultaneously deeper, discussion and understanding of credit, a hard task to pull, but we think we've done it. As if that weren't enough, we think we've also been able to nicely blend hard core quantitative and statistics based concepts into our suite of portfolio and risk management courses.
Crédito & amp; Risk Analysis Training.
Learn to analyze and understand the factors driving the risk / reward profile for a borrower and its debt securities. Many independent elements impact a borrower's creditworthiness and the value of its loans; however, true mastery of credit analysis demands an integrated perspective, weaving these disparate parts into a comprehensive, big-picture mosaic.
This program's goal is to assist you in developing a comprehensive foundation in credit analysis. Our framework for evaluating credit begins with the fundamentals; traditional and universally-accepted elements reviewed by lenders: the Character, Capital, Collateral, Capacity, and Conditions (the "Five C's") of debt and the debtor. These basics support building a stronger foundation to understand the qualitative and quantitative factors impacting a firm's ability to repay interest and principal. Learn the qualities which most impact a firm's solvency from a top-down analytical perspective, beginning with global economic trends and business cycles. Further assess a company's credit quality with a bottom-up analysis, evaluating the firm's performance relative to its peers. Finally, drill down even deeper to assess the structure of the company's debt securities and the potential value from specific attributes protecting creditors' investment.
Leverage your foundation to understand how major ratings agencies assess credit and ratings are determined. Learn which elements of credit are most relevant to the agencies and which are evaluated less rigorously. Compare the rating methodologies and contrast the meanings of the underlying credit ratings across credit ratings agencies. Understand how ratings changes can have drastic effects on a security's market pricing.
In addition to employing these academic practices and standard methodologies in evaluating a debtor's creditworthiness, you will also learn and integrate real world market dynamics into your credit analysis. Examining the impact of qualities such as market liquidity and the long-term objectives of creditors provides further visibility into the borrower's risk / reward profile. Reviewing additional considerations that impact a loan's risk / reward profile, including counterparty risk and concentration risk, adds deeper insight into a position's creditworthiness.
Recognize the actions and tools sometimes applied by lenders to mitigate credit risk, including credit derivatives and insurance, credit tightening, and portfolio diversification. Understand the costs and benefits of utilizing these tools, and the scenarios in which they are most effective. Finally, put your comprehensive foundation into practice by creating an actual credit review write-up.
The comprehensive analysis of a debtor and its securities from both the top-down and the bottom-up will allow you to judge a company's creditworthiness with a greater breadth and depth of understanding relative to many other market participants. This real world analysis, integrating established methodologies with the tools used by front-line Wall Street credit analysts, is a comprehensive foundation for credit review and analysis.
5-Day Curriculum Overview.
Day 1: Overview of Credit and Lending Day 2: Create a Credit Memo Day 3: Covenants & Credit Agreement Analysis Day 4: Covenant Comps & Debt Comps Day 5: Capstone Credit Memo & Presentation.
Debt & Lending Overview.
What are some of the advantages of borrowing capital? Disadvantages? How do debt and equity investors differ in their approach to risk and reward? List the standard elements examined by lenders, and define the importance of each Understand the perspectives taken by analysts in evaluating credit, and how they differ across the sell-side and the buy-side Why is a security's position in the capital structure important? Why is a company's capital structure relevant to the firm's value? Who are the main ratings agencies and what role do they play? Understand why a loan's price isn't necessarily related to its credit rating How do the major credit ratings agencies evaluate debt or a debtor? How do the major credit rating agencies approach the rating process differently? How do ratings at similar levels differ across the agencies?
Market Factors.
Why are some industries / sectors preferred by debt investors over others? Evaluate the impact of fixed costs and barriers to entry in shaping an industry and its competitive dynamics Review the competitive dynamics of a market by analyzing Porter's Five Forces of competitive intensity How does a company's headquarters or geographic profile impact its creditworthiness and risk / reward profile? Analyze the risk of government regulation / intervention, and the potential impact of this on an industry Differentiate between cyclical, seasonal, and secularly shifting sectors Determine at what point in the economic cycle a specific industry / sector is expected to grow, and at what point it is expected to decline In what circumstances is a company operating in a declining industry not necessarily a bad investment? Recognize industry trends and metrics used to measure performance Predict the impact that global capital markets activity may have on the structure of loan documents Describe how a change in interest rates or future interest rate expectations can impact current debt pricing. Which types of debt securities are most sensitive to this risk? Explain how macroeconomic factors can influence counterparty risk Describe how historical or recent events may influence a lender's perception of a borrower.
Company Factors.
Calculate a firm's credit ratios, and evaluate how they compare to the company's peers. Analyze what these ratios mean for the company from a credit analysis perspective Evaluate whether a company is a leader or a laggard within its sector Conduct an analysis of the company's Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT Analysis) How will a company's owners, and lenders, influence the company's value? Understand the conflicts of interest between equity holders and bond holders What factors do major rating agencies typically not take into account when rating a bond, loan, or note? Examine a firm's financial ratios to determine its operational success and the management's performance in efficiently running the business Describe the potential conflicts of interest between a debtor's management team and the creditors. List several counterbalances that lenders can utilize to control or this conflict Explain why asset coverage is a significant factor for a lender. Describe one way borrowers previously took advantage of this perspective, and explain why they typically can no longer do so How can the Use(s) of Proceeds impact the pricing of a loan? Describe some Use(s) of Proceeds that are generally viewed favorably by creditors, and some that creditors view unfavorably Given a change in a company's financial or operational condition, determine the effects on the borrower's cash flow and ability to repay the loan What options are available to a company when a loan's maturity is imminent but they lack adequate cash / cash flow to pay back the debt? Understand the ТҐarly warning signs' of a deterioration in a borrower's creditworthiness Distinguish between a financially distressed firm and an operationally distressed firm.
Security Analysis.
Understand structural protections typically afforded to security investors, and why they are important What are the most common covenants and loan terms? Assess the impact from a security's possessing tighter or looser terms relative to its peers Explain the most common loan and pricing structures, and under which circumstances each would be most appealing to borrowers and to lenders Why do more senior loans typically mature prior to less senior loans? Consider the liquidity of a security and its impact on the loan's value. How do a firm's lenders, and the lenders' strategies, influence the security's liquidity? How do they influence its value? Differentiate between counterparty risk at the macroeconomic level and at the individual holder level Distinguish between the disparate components which may comprise a bond's yield - principal repayment, cash interest, and PIK interest - and evaluate the circumstances in which each might be preferred relative to the others Identify reasons for a security's price fluctuations that are isolated from the security's underlying value Describe the steps taken by lenders to mitigate credit risk, and characterize the scenarios in which each action may be most effective What are the advantages or disadvantages to portfolio diversification? Understand how diversification influences an individual security.
Case Studies & Credit Memo.
Compare and contrast loose covenants, tight covenants, covenant-light agreements, and covenant-tight agreements Evaluate the impact of certain provisions on a loan's recovery by examining historical outcomes Review the segments typically included, and concerns generally addressed, in a comprehensive analysis of a bond, loan, or note Create a formal credit review write-up.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Company Overview Finance 101 - Introduction to Finance Corporate Valuation Methodologies Back to this topicBack to top.
Credit Agreements and Covenants Analysis.
Understand the legal aspects of issuing bank debt and corporate bonds by analyzing major sections of debt agreements and legal and financial covenants. Comprehend the major types of covenants found in credit agreements and bond indentures: affirmative, negative and financial. In addition, delve into maintenance and incurrence covenants, reps and warranties, indemnities. Learn objective of relevant credit agreement provisions and common related structural issues and thoroughly analyze senior credit agreements covenants and high-yield bond covenants. Understand implications of covenants on "events of default" and differentiate between technical defaults as well as compare and contrast "loose" vs. "tight" covenants and covenant-light and covenant-tight agreements.
Debt & Lending Overview.
Capital Structure & Implications on Loan Seniority Lender Concerns, Borrower Creditworthiness & Measurement & Ratings Agencies Bank Debt / Senior Secured Loans Overview Bank Debt comparison with High Yield notes.
Credit Agreements.
Introduction to Credit Agreements Role of Covenants Administrative Agent Defaulting on Credit Agreements: Types of Default and Post-default Debt Tranche Interdependence: Conflicts of Interest & Cross-Defaults Relative importance of Bank Debt to High Yield note covenants Formal Sections of Credit Agreement: Introduction to Solutia Case Study.
Standard & Variable Provisions of the Credit Agreement.
Explanation of standardization General Overview of major CA sections Section summary specific to Solutia case study Title Page: Importance of Legal Borrower, Corporate Structure Overview Table of Contents Recitals: Detail on Guarantors Definitions: Emphasize importance of definitions due to variability across CAs Loan Terms: Detail on amortization structures of loans, company-specific amortization preferences Representations & Warranties Conditions (to closing) Events of Default: Overview of cure period & amendments Other & Voting majority.
Covenant Overview & Detail.
Covenant Summary.
Covenants: Affirmative Covenants.
Role as reporting covenants 1.1 Financial Statements 1.2 Certificates & Other Information Insider Access / Information Arbitrage Case Study: Solutia EBITDA definition to exemplify reporting complications 1.3 Other Events 1.4 Environmental Matters 1.5 Geography / Timeline Importance 1.6 Additional Collateral & Guaranties 1.7 Additional Affirmative Covenants Maintenance of Corporate Existence Payment of Obligations Maintenance of Property & Insurance.
Covenants: Negative Covenants.
Role of Negative Covenants 2.1 Indebtedness 2.2 Liens Importance of Liens in collateral protection Restricted Liens 2.3 Investments Permitted Investments 2.4 Asset Sales Sale & Leaseback Transactions 2.5 Prepayments of Indebtedness 2.6 Fundamental Changes 2.7 Transactions with Affiliates.
Covenants: Financial Covenants.
Maintenance & Incurrence Covenant Overview 3.1 Maintenance Covenants 3.2 Incurrence Covenants Example of Incurrence break & compliance, while within Maintenance Covenants.
Covenant-Lite Credit Agreements.
Excluded Covenants Comparison with Traditional Loans Standard Credit Agreement to diluted CA to lite CA evolution Re-emergence.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Back to this topicBack to top.
13-Week Cash Flow Modeling.
This program's goal is to assist you in developing a comprehensive foundation in forecasting and modeling a business' cash needs. Our framework for developing a cash flow model begins with the fundamentals; understanding the variances between traditional and near-term modeling, of which aspects of operations will have the probable largest impact on cash balances, differences the various rationales for creating a 13-Week Cash Flow (TWCF) model, and how they impact both a business in both the short and long term.
After gaining a fundamental and in-depth understanding of TWCF models, learn to build and create a business cash flow forecast. Analyze the results to determine potential pressure points on a business, review variances to comprehend short-term changes in the business, and adjust for future periods based on immediate results. Understand how to use this analysis to better manage operations and obligations, and to position a business for long-term success.
13-Week Cash Flow Overview.
Learn the principal uses and goals of building TWCF models Understand businesses and industries that most frequently utilize TWCF projections Delve into disparate situations that benefit from TWCF modeling and analysis, and how models may differ in their focus / structure depending on a company's current situation Evaluate the differences and advantages of TWCF models relative to more common financial models TWCF models are built on a pure cash basis, down to the last dollar – showing actual cash inflows and outflows, as opposed to being built on an accrual basis (which can be misleading, especially during a cash crisis) More detail, in the form of additional line items which can be forecast more accurately due to the short-term nature of TWCF models Insight into the specifics of timing due to the weekly nature of the projections (for example, forecasting a month in which there are three payroll periods rather than two or taking seasonal trends into account)
Começando.
Understand what information is necessary to gather before beginning the model's construction Realize the assumptions necessary to build a TWCF model Discover resources to make these assumptions as accurate as possible Evaluate the limitations of utilizing assumptions and how to 'sanity-check' your work to minimize the impact from assumption variances.
Information Impact.
Determine in which cases utilizing historical information is appropriate and in which cases this information must be adjusted Emphasize how this differs across industries, and how to adjust your assumptions / historical data accordingly Learn how the cash cycle works across disparate industries and markets Review common pitfalls in TWCF modeling and how to control for them to minimize their potential impact Review the status of the business to determine the context of the TWCF model Many executives utilize TWCFs simply to forecast the near-term period Operators frequently examine 13-Week Cash Flow models when initiating new strategies or introducing new products to determine whether a project is viable Other businesses which are in transitional or distressed situations use TWCF models to actively manage cash and needs Learn which factors are most likely to cause a liquidity issue, such as customers delaying payments in the context of a business' potential distress Analyze run-rate cash outflows and inflows to determine which must be adjusted or may present future problems Determine the drivers of each specific line-item to enhance the model's accuracy (for example, seasonality impacting order volume) Analyze larger customers and expected receipts to determine the actual timing of cash inflows Review current and historical working capital balances to determine whether these accounts may be stretched to gain a short-term cash benefit Evaluate relationships with and importance of suppliers and vendors to make judgments on whether payment terms may be relaxed Utilize balance sheet ratios to determine expected changes in working capital Determine which capital expenditures are necessary (maintenance-related and required to continue operations at the steady state) and which can be delayed (expansionary capital expenditures) Identify potential sources of cash funding and the associated costs, timing, and likelihood of receiving this funding Review corporate managements' previous forecasts and their accuracy to understand whether an 'optimism' discount is applicable.
Model Building.
List and probability-adjust all expected cash inflows and outflows On an account-by-account basis Utilize line-item drivers to build up expectations with a greater degree of accuracy Begin with an analysis of Accounts Receivable aging and determine which collections may be accelerated and the probable timing of cash payments Determine recurring cash outflows, such as operating expenses, interest expenses, and payroll Add in the impact of future sales and collections Build dynamic features allowing scenario analyses: In which funding is received or unavailable In which working capital balances may be stretched In which emergency cash expenditures may be necessary In which suppliers or vendors demand adjusted payment terms Show inventory roll-forwards and other collateral balances, again differentiating between scenarios in which balances can be stretched or collateral can be liquidated for an emergency cash injection Create a master summary page which shows inflows, outflows, and expected cash balance at the end of each week Determine timing of potential liquidity issues and cash balance cushions to understand the business' margin of safety.
13-Week Cash Flow Analysis.
Once the TWCF model is built, track weekly and monthly variances to projections Adjust on a go-forward basis, taking variances into account Determine whether additional costs may be cut and whether strategy implementation is effective Identify potential problem areas or departments within a business to determine accountability Review customer behavior to ensure payments are consistent with contract terms and historical performance Review customer losses to gauge competitors' reactions to a business' transition or distress Review supplier and vendor activity to ensure contract and delivery terms have remained consistent Evaluate additional options to manage cash balances, such as accelerating collections Determine whether recent performance or collateral balances may allow eligibility for financing which was previously unavailable Evaluate 'emergency' options, such as temporary staff reductions or the factoring of accounts receivable in order to keep the business afloat Use positive variances to improve supplier and vendor relationships, potentially negotiating a relaxation of terms Back to this topicBack to top.
Distressed Investing Overview.
Learn how to analyze and value distressed companies and securities undergoing restructuring or bankruptcy process. First, appreciate and understand the historical perspective and context of the distressed market. Then, explore various opportunities in distressed investing from securities types to investment strategies. Properly identify and isolate the true sources and drivers of returns from supply & demand to operational changes to market rebound to recapitalizations. Quantify and comprehend the dramatic changes to a distressed firmУі capital structure and the implications on the valuation process and realignment of economics. Understand the reorganization and bankruptcy process, including DIP (debtor-in-possession) financing, Section 363 sales (stalking horse), Chapter 11 reorganization, and Chapter 7 liquidation. Fully comprehend the key critical covenants required involved in distressed securities as well as the entire turnaround & restructuring process by identifying key parameters for successful business plan implementation.
Distressed Investing Overview.
Various definitions of distressed and causes of distressed securities Understanding different securities types to invest in based on investment strategy.
Investment Strategies & Valuation.
Understanding and taking advantage of capital structure arbitrage opportunities DIP (Debtor-In-Possession) financing and the controversial roll-up DIP Identifying all-important fulcrum security and impact on valuation and returns.
Bankruptcy: Legal Aspects & Chapter 11.
Brief overview to Chapter 11 - Reorganization Process and impact on distressed investing in US Section 363 sales & stalking horse bidderУі impact on determining success of Chapter 11 process.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Basic Financial Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
Distressed Financial Modeling.
Learn how to model and value distressed companies and securities undergoing restructuring or bankruptcy process. Build upon our Distressed Investing Overview course by quantifying the dramatic changes to a distressed firm's capital structure and the implications on the valuation process and realignment of economics. Build robust distressed sensitivity financial model. Learning objectives include: model out sample distressed company on a standalone basis, with and without restructuring; incorporate detailed valuation sensitivity to identify key value drivers in a distressed situation; analyze the fulcrum security based on various valuation and leverage scenarios.
Distressed Financial Modeling.
Summarize pre-petition capital structure of distressed situation & determine normalized valuation Construct standalone Income Statement project of distressed company Layer on various restructuring and turnaround scenarios Evaluate & analyze decision to restructure and understand financial implications on valuation Construct super-dynamic and flexible model to automate new vs. old cash flow capital structure.
Distressed Financial Modeling & Sensitivity Analysis:
Construct robust sensitivity analysis to determine ultimate recovery to capital structure classes Sensitize distressed model based on leverage, valuation, new pro forma capital structure Analyze what constitutes a "bad" deal and its implications for the distressed investor Understand and appreciate various financial stakeholders and inherent conflicts of interest Quantify and evaluate the importance of determining the right fulcrum security.
Pré-requisitos
Distressed Investing Overview Back to this topicBack to top.
Technical Applications: Excel & PowerPoint.
A financial analyst won't be spending all their time on Excel building financial models, but will be crunching a fair amount of data and creating charts, tables & presentations. From due diligence of analyzing salary rosters and client lists to industry analysis and reports to creating charts and graphs, you will live and breathe Excel, Word & PowerPoint and we will teach you all the best practices of the most important tools.
Excel 2003 в†’ 2007/2010 Transition.
When Excel and Office 2007 first debuted, Excel power-users around the world collectively groaned with a massive headache. While there are certainly key enhancements to Excel 2007 that we like, navigating the new "ribbon" caused some grief as users were forced to re-learn how to use Excel. Thankfully, most of the shortcut accelerator keys are still in place. But change is never easy, so we created this short tutorial on getting you up to speed real quick - the one stop source on mastering Excel 2007. Embrace it, Excel 2007 is here to stay.
Goal: communicate the key differences in Excel 2007 vs. Excel 2003 pertaining to financial professionals If you don't want to spend hours figuring out how to navigate the new interface, then you're at the right place No need to spend hundreds of dollars on a book that you won't read We'll teach you the key things in a fraction of the time.
Pré-requisitos
Excel Fundamentals for the Finance Professional Back to this topicBack to top.
Excel Fundamentals for the Finance Professional.
This course focuses on how learning the fundamental building blocks of Excel so you can begin to take advantage and leverage all of Excel's true capabilities. In order to efficiently build models and crunch large data dumps in Excel, one must master the basics before the advanced content. Learn relevant financial formulas, proper navigation, formatting of files and worksheets, creating calculations in cells, and linking between worksheets/tabs. Functions and tools covered in this course include: mathematical, financial, logic, date/time formulas; data manipulation; anchoring; data tables; and building a capstone model. Emphasis will be on using shortcut keys, simplifying steps, and manipulating data. You will leave with techniques you can use immediately, allowing you to work faster and with less effort.
Mathematical functions: SUM, MAX, AVERAGE, MEDIAN, MIN Financial functions: PV, FV, RATE, NPV, IRR Logic Functions: IF, nested IF, CHOOSE, AND, OR Date Functions: MONTH, DAY, YEAR, WEEKDAY, EO MONTH Time Functions: HOUR, MINUTE, SECOND, TODAY, NOW Formatting: fills, copy formulas, paste special.
Pré-requisitos
Data Manipulation: TEXT, CONCATENATE, ROUND Anchoring and locking cell references Build simple capstone financial model that encompasses efficiencies, shortcuts and sensitivity analysis Shortcuts and working with Add-ins Back to this topicBack to top.
Advanced Excel for Data Analysis.
This course focuses on how to effectively and efficiently utilize Microsoft Excel for data analysis. A financial analyst will not only use Excel to build financial models, but also to crunch a large data dump. Learn how to minimize as much manual labor as possible, thereby saving time and performing more detailed analysis quickly. Apply commonly-used formulas in new and different ways; uncover often over-looked Excel formulas; streamline number crunching and analysis via functions and tools including pivot tables, sumif, sum+if, transpose, working with arrays, vlook-up, subtotals, and regression analysis; enhance your spreadsheets with drop-down boxes, data validation techniques, automation of alternate row shading; take Excel to the next level with an introduction to building and automating simple macros and more!
Learn the most useful and overlooked Excel shortcuts to make life easier! What are the different ways to make your Excel worksheet into a model instead of just a flat analysis? Learn different "switches alternatives" (if, choose, offset) Learn data validation techniques to dummy proof your model! Perform basic regression analysis using least squares approach How do you perform one-dimension and two-dimensional sensitivity analyses using data tables? Utilize the vlookup function to its fullest to streamline tedious lookup jobs Pivot Tables: Everybody's heard of it but who knows how to use it! Learn how to summarize and dissect large amounts of data for analysis! Pivot Tables: Even better - add built-in and custom calculated fields to really use pivot tables to the max! Utilize the sumif formula and sum+if array functions to simplify complex conditional calculations Learn how to use the subtotal formula and function to minimize errors Combine subtotal with AutoFilter options to easily crunch all sorts of data! Automate alternate row shading in a table of data using complex conditional formatting Learn how to use the transpose array function Add some spice to your Excel analysis and models using drop-boxes Introduction to recording macros, modifying and coding macros and creating macro icons.
Pré-requisitos
Knowledge of Excel and fundamental concepts in finance and valuation (since data is finance oriented) Company Overview and Basic Financial Modeling Back to this topicBack to top.
Excel Charting & Graphing Techniques & PowerPoint Integration.
"A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words" - but what happens when you have the perfect image in your head but you can't get Excel to graph it the way you want? Ever get annoyed at constantly having to go back into "Source Data" whenever you add an item to your data series? Or how about getting the perfect sized bar or line without resorting to using a ruler to literally draw it on! This course builds upon our Advanced Excel for Data Analysis course and focuses advanced charting & graphing techniques and how to properly integrate with PowerPoint. A critical, must-take course especially for professionals that have to create graphs in their presentations, reports and slides. As usual, we emphasize and teach all the best practices and focuses on our core Excel learning goal: automation, automation, automation! Leave nothing to chance, there is always a way to simplify and automate your charting & graphing approach. This jam-packed session includes: waterfall charts, football fields, dymamic ranges, and much much more! Learn the best practices of integrating into PowerPoint, when to embed, link (never) and copy as picture, as well as add to our Excel macros with a couple handy PowerPoint macros.
Creating Price Volume chart with call-out box annotations with perfect alignment Calculate and create dynamic moving average charts Construct Indexed Stock Price History graph with automated information box Build historical industry graph summarizing average, high low bars detailing valuation spreads Construct combination charts and graphs including precise annotations and secondary axis formatting Properly structure beta and volatility analysis and regression on multiple axis Construct historical and projected linear regression graph with automated best fit lines Assemble and understand logic behind "step charts" with X and Y Error bars to connect the dots Create dynamic charts and graphics that automatically update as additional source data is added Build Shares Traded at Various Prices graph with absolute perfectly sized and aligned graphs Create simple column and cumulative column (or bar) chart (multiple stacked chart) Learn how to create complex, combination charts such as double stacked charts Go all out by building a "football field" valuation range chart that combines triple stacked charts with XY scatter plot to automate current stock price line Construct waterfall chart that graphically summarizes sum-of-parts valuation Learn best practices of bringing Excel charts and exhibits into PowerPoint Avoid the forbidden linking between files and learn when to embed vs copy/paste as picture Learn the fastest and best ways to work in PowerPoint without the mouse Facilitate chart and graph placement in PowerPoint with our custom PPT macros.
Pré-requisitos
Basic Financial Modeling Advanced Financial Modeling - Core Model M&A Deal Structuring Merger Modeling Basics LBO Overview Quick & Dirty LBO Modeling Efficiency in Excel Back to this topicBack to top.
Estratégias de Negociação.
Bridge the gap from the fundamental analysis side of finance to actionable trade strategies. After you've decided on your trade based on your fundamental analysis (financial modeling & valuation), take the next step to properly time your trade and explore options beyond simply buying stocks.
Buy-Side Series: Mechanics and Applications of Long/Short Hedge Funds.
Participants will be introduced to the psyche of a hedge fund and learn how to think like a buy-side analyst. Through this course, participants will be shown how to expand their analysis beyond theory (valuations, trends, etc.) and apply the same practical techniques that hedge funds do. Specifically, learn what information is valued by funds, how and when hedge funds buy stocks, how single stock ideas are vetted through the construct of an entire portfolio, and how/why short decisions are made. Trade strategies will be detailed so conceptual ideas can be presented as actionable trades. Trading mechanics such as short interest, liquidity analysis, and ownership will also be discussed. Participants will be shown where to gain insights on funds and how to cater ideas/information to the fund's existing book of stocks, market exposure, and stated mandate. If you're a buy-side professional, you must master these fundamentals. If you're a sell-side professional, adoption of these techniques will increase the value of the presenter's ideas and result in increased and stronger buy-side relationships.
Thinking like Hedge Funds.
Understanding what information funds value, what they don't and what they pay attention to Making stock ideas more practical – moving beyond valuation and theory When a fund might short a stock even though fundamental valuation says fair or even undervalued.
Shorting as a source of funds and viewing short performance relative to the offsetting long position Managing return expectations for a short; distinguish between hedges, absolute returns & capital sources.
Atuação.
Understanding how beta impacts returns and managing funds' exposures Distinguish between AUM and assets deployed – and the impact on manager performance and risk.
Liquidity & Trades.
The impact of liquidity on stock selection and profiting from anticipated liquidity changes Designing trades with the whole portfolio in mind and pair trades – when & why & how they work Understanding the impact of sentiment on anticipated trades.
Knowing and Using the Information Available to You.
Where to find relevant filings – understanding what they mean Following competitors' trades while maintaining discretion in your own book Profiting from liquidations Calculate net change to development properties, construction in process and investment.
Pré-requisitos
Accounting & Financial Statements Integration Corporate Valuation Methodologies Overview of Financial Markets Back to this topicBack to top.
Análise Técnica & amp; Negociação
Technical analysis offers powerful, objective tools for trading stocks and securities. It's one thing to master fundamental analysis (accounting, reading and dissecting financial statements, financial modeling & valuation); however, many times, especially in extreme market dislocations, technical analysis overpowers the fundamentals and takes a life of its own. Certainly, technical analysis combined with fundamental analysis will rule the day; in either case, both sides of the equation are important.
This course provides a thorough review and primer to the fundamentals of technical analysis and trading based on technicals. We introduce the major types of technical indicators and tools and dive into the practical application in the real trading world. While the common saying "you can't time the market" certainly has merit, this course will teach how to make disciplined trades and improve your timing by identifying trends. Learn how to interpret charts and translate them into actionable trades.
We start with understanding the critical concepts of moving averages, support and resistance levels, to chart patterns such as head & shoulders, tops & bottoms, reversals and gaps, to incorporating price with volume, time, momentum and other sentiment factors, to more complex analysis such as candlesticks, Elliott waves, Bollinger bands, stochastics, relative strength, Fibonacci retracements, and much much more!
We debunk the myths and cut through the jargon to provide a straightforward, non-theoretical application—for each technical indicator, we explain: (i) the basic premise of the analysis; (ii) the information it provides; (iii) how it works; (iv) examples with graphics to clarify; (v) how to implement it; (vi) compare and contrast with other indicators.
Introdução à Análise Técnica.
Fundamental Analysis vs. Technical Analysis Effectiveness of Technical Analysis.
Step One: Reading, Understanding & Interpreting Charts.
Arithmetic vs Logarithmic Scaling Useful Line and Bar Charts Candlestick Charts.
Step Two: Reading, Understanding & Interpreting Trends.
Time Horizons, Trend Lines & Volume Support / Resistance Levels and Moving Averages Gaps (Breakaway, Runaway, Exhaustion) Oscillators, Momentum & Sentiment Indicators (VIX, Put/Call, Bull/Bear, etc)
Step Three: Reading, Understanding & Interpreting Patterns.
Head & Shoulders Double Tops & Bottoms Continuation and Reversal Patterns Identify Channel Boundaries and Trading Channels.
Step Four: Advanced Technical Analysis.
Dow & Elliott Wave Theory Relative Strength Indicators Fibonacci, Stochastics & Bollinger Bands Back to this topicBack to top.
Introduction to Options: Greeks & Estratégias de Opção.
This course is an intensive introduction to option trading strategies and the Greeks. Several examples of spreads and combinations are covered in detail; strategies that combine options with other types of assets are also explained in depth. These include covered calls, protective puts and collars. In addition to these strategies, the use of options to synthetically replicate other types of positions is also explored. Several option risk measures, known as the Greeks, are covered in detail: delta, gamma, theta, vega and rho. The properties of the Greeks are analyzed, while models for computing the Greeks are derived from the Black-Scholes model using Excel. The importance of the Greeks in trading strategies is shown with numerous examples.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel - understand how to implement several key mathematical and statistical Excel functions, such as variance, standard deviation, covariance, correlation, the normal probability distribution and the cumulative normal probability distribution. Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) - learn how to extend the capabilities of Excel with the VBA programming language. Understand the basic programming structures of VBA, such as arrays, objects, properties, methods, and branching and looping statements. Learn how to write user-defined functions and macros. Options - review basic options terminology and understand how options are priced with the Black-Scholes model. Understand the statistical foundations of the Black-Scholes option pricing model and how to implement the Black-Scholes model in Excel. Learn how the put-call parity condition enables Black-Scholes to price puts and calls. Option trading strategies - understand the basic types of trading strategies, including spreads and combinations. Understand the payoff profile and the break-even point of each strategy. Understand which strategies are appropriate when the market outlook is bullish, bearish or neutral. Learn the potential rewards and risk associated with each strategy. Understand how changes in volatility affect each strategy, and how the passage of time affects the profitability of each strategy. Learn how to synthetically reproduce various payoff profiles with the use of options. Black-Scholes - learn how European options may be priced with the Black-Scholes model. Understand the statistical foundations of the Black-Scholes option pricing model and the concept of risk-neutral pricing. Be able to implement the Black-Scholes model in Excel and VBA. Learn how to extend the Black-Scholes model to price European puts with the put-call parity condition. Learn how the Greeks may be calculated with the Black-Scholes model. Understand how the assumptions underlying the Black-Scholes model may be violated in practice. Option volatility - Understand how to calculation implied volatility and the implications volatility has in pricing options. Connect the "smile" of volatility to implied volatility and strike price and validate / negate the assumptions of Black-Scholes. Internalize the impact of volatility skew on in-the-money calls and out-of-the-money puts which all relate to the term structure of volatility and how mispricing arises. The Greeks - understand five of the most important Greeks: delta, gamma, theta, vega and rho. Understand how delta and gamma can be used to measure the sensitivity of an option's price to changes in the price of the underlying variable. Learn how theta measures the impact of the passage of time on an option's price. Understand the relationship between option prices and volatility, as measured by vega. Gain insight into how interest rates impact option prices, as measured by rho. Learn how to compute these measures in Excel and understand their role in measuring and managing risk. Understand the role of the Greeks in trading strategies. Back to this topicBack to top.
Complex and Exotic Option Pricing Models & Simulation in Excel/VBA.
This course introduces the Monte Carlo simulation approach to pricing derivative securities. Several different techniques for simulating random numbers are described; the risk-neutral framework for pricing derivative securities is covered in detail. The properties of Brownian Motion and Geometric Brownian Motion are explored, along with alternative stochastic processes that may be used to price derivatives. The simulation of European option prices and the Greeks is implemented in the VBA programming language. The Longstaff-Schwartz approach to pricing American options is covered in depth. The properties of several types of exotic derivatives are explained in detail. The prices of these derivatives are obtained from Monte Carlo simulation and compared with the results obtained from closed-form models. Several techniques for reducing the computational time of Monte Carlo simulation are explored, such as low-discrepancy sequences, control variates and antithetic variables.
Learning Goals.
Learn the properties of several types of exotic derivatives and the concept of path-dependence; then model and price the exotics Specific options strategies covered include: barrier options, binary (digital) options, Peroni options, rainbow options, lookback options, Asian options, multiple-asset options and others Understand how the Chicago Board Option Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is constructed, how VIX options are priced, and how they may be used to implement volatility trading strategies Utilize Monte Carlo simulation approach to pricing derivative securities, from the risk-neutral framework to Brownian Motion to Longstaff-Schwartz and alternative stochastic processes Simulate and model European option prices and implement the Greeks in Excel & VBA Utilize VBA for arrays, objects, properties, methods, branching & looping statements and user-defined functions and macros.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel : understand how to use Excel's add-in tools to implement advanced statistical techniques, such as regression analysis and random number generation. Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) : learn how to extend the capabilities of Excel with the VBA programming language. Understand the basic programming structures of VBA, such as arrays, objects, properties, methods, and branching and looping statements. Learn how to write user-defined functions and macros. Risk-neutral pricing : understand how derivative securities are priced with the risk-neutral framework of Black and Scholes. Learn the statistical properties of Brownian Motion. Understand how a stochastic process such as Geometric Brownian Motion can be used to model the behavior of financial assets. Monte Carlo simulation : understand how the statistical properties of traded assets can be used to generate simulated prices, and how option prices can be derived from these results. Learn several techniques for simulating random numbers from a probability distribution, and be able to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses. Learn how to implement a Monte Carlo simulation in VBA. The Longstaff-Schwartz model : understand how American options may be priced using the Longstaff-Schwartz approach, which combines regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Back to this topicBack to top.
Volatility/Correlation Modeling and Risk Management.
This course provides a detailed overview of volatility and correlation models. First, estimate volatility from historical data then, implied volatility is defined and derived from option prices using root-finding methods. Dive deeper into the term structure of volatilities and volatility surface are analyzed in great detail. Learn how to price exotic options and the corresponding Greeks from the volatility surface. An overview of hedging and trading strategies using volatility derivatives is given; these include VIX options and futures and OTC derivatives, such as variance and volatility swaps. Several techniques for estimating correlation are covered, along with an overview of correlation derivatives. Trading and hedging strategies with correlation products are explored in detail. All models are implemented using Excel and the Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) programming language.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel - understand how to use Excel's optimization package Solver to estimate volatility models. Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) - learn how to extend the capabilities of Excel with the VBA programming language. Understand the basic programming structures of VBA, such as arrays, objects, properties, methods, and branching and looping statements. Learn how to write user-defined functions and macros. Historical volatility - understand how to estimate volatility from historical data. Implement the simple moving average approach, the Exponentially-Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) approach and the GARCH methodology using Excel. Understand the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Implied volatility - understand how implied volatility can be computed from the Black-Scholes model using root-finding techniques such as Newton-Raphson. Understand the properties of the volatility skew and how the term structure of volatilities is calculated. Learn how the implied volatility surface is constructed from the volatility skew and the term structure of volatilities. Implied trees - understand the methodology used to generate implied binomial and trinomial trees from the volatility surface. Learn how to implement the Derman-Kani implied tree model in order to price exotic options and calculate the Greeks for these options. Understand how the Greeks may be used for hedging. Stochastic volatility models - learn how volatility can be modeled as a two-factor stochastic process. Understand how the Heston model may be implemented with Monte Carlo simulation and as a closed-form solution using numerical methods. Use the Heston model to calculate the implied volatility surface and use this information to price exotic options. Volatility derivatives - understand the properties of several volatility derivatives, including VIX options and futures, variance and volatility swaps. Understand how the VIX index is constructed and how VIX options and futures may be used to hedge volatility risk. Understand several trading strategies using VIX options and futures to speculate on the future direction of volatility, including bull and bear spreads, calendar spreads, diagonal spreads, butterfly spreads and condors. Correlation models - understand how correlation can be estimated from historical data using simple moving averages, Exponentially-Weighted Moving Averages and GARCH. Be able to extract implied correlations from the prices of currency options. Understand the properties of the correlation skew. Learn how default correlations may be estimated from structural models such as Merton. Correlation derivatives - learn the key properties of correlation derivatives, such as covariance swaps, correlation swaps, nth-to-default swaps and Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). Understand the different types of risk carried by correlation products, such as default risk, spread risk, implied correlation risk and time decay and how these risks may be managed using delta and gamma. Learn how a position in correlation may be taken with CDS or CDO tranches. Copulas - understand how several types of copulas are constructed, including the Gaussian copula. Learn how these may be used to price correlation products, such as CDSs and CDOs. Back to this topicBack to top.
Global Macroeconomics (and Implications on Rates)
Economics – if not dismal, the "science" can certainly be frustrating. Ask yourself, do weak employment figures portend a decline in corporate profits and falling equity prices, or does it signal potential intervention from the central bank and rising equity prices? Exasperating, right?
The application of economic data to real world investment decisions often requires a secondary and even tertiary analysis of its meaning. Said differently, using economic data in the real world is more a "sentiment game" than a mathematical formula. What is a sentiment game? Keynes would describe it as a newspaper beauty contest, but more technically it's a strategic interaction between multiple players seeking to ascertain not necessarily their interpretation of a given set of information, but the interpretation and reaction of the other players in the game.
The Wall St. Training Global Macroeconomics course examines the practice of interpreting economic information in a way that is helpful to decision makers. We address key theoretical concepts including basic macroeconomics, the business and debt cycles, monetary and fiscal policy, and international trade; but also leave the ivory tower to examine actual economic releases and discuss not what “should” happen but what does or can happen.
The course is broadly divided into two sections: Core Concepts and Key Economic Indicators & Data Series. The Core Concepts section of the course covers introductory economic theories and models that are required background information for economic analysis. This is done through an explanation of content followed by a real world example taken from a leading financial news source. The second portion of the course looks at key economic data series including among others, employment figures, price levels, monetary policy measures, and business/consumer activity measures. We use recent economic data to make it more applicable to current investment decisions and avoid the obfuscation that often accompanies older data sets.
Students should walk away with a better understanding of basic economic theory, how it translates into real world application, and knowledge about the distribution of and meaning behind important economic indicators. This is perfect for investment decision makers looking to integrate economic analysis into their decision making process or more experienced "economists" looking for a review of key concepts.
Core Concepts:
Basic Macro - fundamental understanding of the global economy; aggregate supply/demand, gaps, stagflation, etc. Business & Debt Cycles - determinants of economic growth, Neoclassical vs. Keynesian economics and implications Monetary and Fiscal Policy - monetary vs. fiscal policy impacts and trading implications for rates trading desks International Trade - comparative advantage and impact of trade treaties on trading strategy Balance of Payments and FX - impact of balance of payments and foreign exchange trade strategies.
Key Economic Indicators & Data Series:
Business Activity - business outlook, durable goods & factory orders report, production, capacity utilization and others Employment - employment cost index, employment situation, jobless claims report and related employment figures Real Estate - existing home sales, housing starts, new residential sales Prices - consumer price index, headline vs. core, producer price index Monetary - Federal Reserve Beige Book, Fed communications and signaling, money supply, commercial banks Consumer - consumer confidence index, consumer sentiment index, consumer credit report, personal income International and Output - international transactions, GDP, productivity and costs Other - commodities, 10-year government bonds, currencies, other miscellaneous indicators Back to this topicBack to top.
Portfolio & Risk Management.
Our suite of portfolio and risk management courses takes a quantitative approach to managing diversification strategies in the portfolio context. Understanding the impact of market factors and monte carlo simulations will allow you to better sensitize and quantify risk factors on your portfolio.
Credit Risk Modeling in Excel & VBA: Default Risk and Prepayment Modeling.
This course provides an in-depth introduction to credit risk. Techniques for modeling credit transition matrices are covered in great detail, while several statistical techniques for modeling default probabilities and correlations are explored in depth. Methodologies for modeling credit portfolio risk are covered, including the asset value approach and the structural approach. Prepayment models are developed for Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). All models are developed in Excel/VBA.
Learning Goals.
Implement statistical foundations, including Monte Carlo simulation using built-in native Excel functions and tools Understand the structure of a credit ratings transition matrix and estimate using the cohort approach and the hazard rate approach Estimate default probabilities and correlations, using Merton's model of credit risk, linear & Poisson regression analysis, the asset value approach (method of moments and maximum likelihood approaches) Simulate and model prepayment rates, incorporating the structure of MBS & related derivatives, including IO and PO strips Model different measures of prepayment speed, such as Single Monthly Mortality (SMM), Conditional Prepayment Rate (CPR) and Absolute Prepayment Speed (ABS) Utilize Excel's specialized functions, including advanced statistical techniques, and Excel's built-in optimization tools Code in Excel VBA: learn the fundamental programming structures and how it can be used to extend Excel's capabilities in Credit Risk Modeling.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel : learn several of Excel's specialized functions. Understand how to use Excel's add-in tools to implement advanced statistical techniques, such as regression analysis. Learn how to use Solver, Excel's built-in optimization package. Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) : learn the fundamental programming structures of the VBA language, and how it can be used to extend Excel's capabilities. Statistical foundations : learn how to implement Monte Carlo simulation using Excel/VBA. Learn techniques for improving the speed of convergence, including importance sampling and low-discrepancy sequences. Understand the binomial and Poisson distributions. Learn the fundamental principles of linear regression analysis, as well as Poisson regression. Understand the maximum likelihood and method of moments approaches to statistical estimation. Merton's model : understand Merton's model of credit risk; learn how it is related to the Black-Scholes model and how it can be used to compute default probabilities. Credit ratings transition matrices : understand the structure of a transition matrix. Learn how to estimate a transition matrix with the cohort approach and the hazard rate approach. Back to this topicBack to top.
Value at Risk (VaR) Modeling for Different Asset Classes in Excel.
This course provides an overview of Value at Risk (VaR) modeling for a wide array of financial assets, including stocks, bonds, forward contracts, futures contracts, swaps and options. The key statistical assumptions underlying the VaR methodology are explored; several different models for computing VaR are implemented in Excel. The Delta-Normal approach is used to compute VaR for bonds, stocks and linear derivative securities, such as forwards, futures and swaps, as well as calls and puts. The Delta-Gamma approach is introduced as an alternative to computing VaR for options; this approach can capture the non-linear behavior of an option but at the cost of greater computational complexity. Full valuation approaches to computing VaR are covered in great detail; these have the advantage of being independent of any distributional assumptions about financial assets. These approaches include Historical Simulation, Weighted Historical Simulation and Monte Carlo Simulation. Several portfolio VaR measures are demonstrated; these are designed to measure the impact of a potential trade on portfolio VaR. These measures are known as Marginal VaR, Incremental VaR and Component VaR. The course concludes with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the VaR methodology, with a consideration of several alternative possible approaches.
Learning Goals.
Explore the statistical foundations and methodology of the VaR framework in Excel and gain insight into how the assumptions of VaR are violated in practice Learn the Delta-Normal, Delta-Gamma & Full Valuation approaches to compute VaR for bonds, stocks and linear and non-linear derivative securities, such as forwards, futures and swaps, as well as calls and puts Understand how changes in the composition of a portfolio affect VaR and implement VaR sensitivities in a portfolio: marginal, incremental and component VaR Comprehend extensions of VaR and how VaR may be implemented with non-normal distributions, such as the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), which can better capture the tail behavior of financial returns Utilize Excel's advanced statistical and mathematical functions, from basics of random numbers to implementing probability distributions (including normal distribution) to Excel's specialized matrix algebra operations.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel : Learn several advanced statistical and mathematical functions in Excel. Understand how random numbers can be generated in Excel. Understand how to implement probability distributions in Excel, including the normal distribution. Learn how Excel's add-in tools can be used to implement advanced statistical techniques. Understand Excel's specialized matrix algebra operations. Statistical properties of financial assets : gain an in-depth understanding of the statistical concepts that form the foundation for all risk management models, including volatility, covariance and correlation and the normal distribution. The Value at Risk methodology : understand the statistical foundations of the Value at Risk framework. Gain insight into how the assumptions of Value at Risk are violated in practice. Understand how to interpret the output of a Value at Risk model. Merton's model : understand Merton's model of credit risk; learn how it is related to the Black-Scholes model and how it can be used to compute default probabilities. Delta-Normal approach to VaR : understand how VaR can be computed from the volatilities and correlations among the assets in a portfolio. Understand how VaR mapping is used to measure the exposure of financial assets to various risk factors. Learn how VaR can be computed for more complex assets, including fixed income products and derivative securities. Back to this topicBack to top.
Portfolio Optimization & Efficient Frontier Modeling.
This course provides an overview of portfolio modeling. The course reviews several key components of portfolio math, such as standard deviation, correlation and covariance, as well as optimization techniques. Markowitz' formula for measuring portfolio risk is covered in detail. The equivalent matrix representation is introduced, along with Excel's matrix algebra functions. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) framework is used to introduce several key concepts, such as beta and the efficient frontier. Excel Solver is used to derive the efficient frontier from a portfolio of stocks. Beta is estimated using linear regression analysis. The Capital Market Line and Security Market Line are derived, showing the relationship between risk and return in equity markets. The Sharpe Ratio is introduced as a measure of relative risk.
Learning Goals.
Extend the fundamentals of CAPM to the foundations of portfolio math, such as standard deviation, correlation and covariance, as well as optimization techniques Learn how to easily implement Markowitz's efficient frontier methodology using Excel's matrix algebra functions and array tools to quickly calculate correlations amongst almost infinite set of securities Understand and quantify the concept and benefits of diversification and how risk can be reduced with a portfolio of assets Start with raw return data for equity securities and construct optimal stock portfolio in Excel; then layer on different asset classes including cash, fixed income and options Sensitize and quantify the effect of specific securities in the context of the overall portfolio: for instance, a stock may optimize the stock portfolio but not the overall diversified portfolio Utilize Excel to optimize portfolio construction based on maximizing returns and minimum variance mix of securities, using advanced statistical and mathematical functions.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel : Learn several advanced statistical and mathematical functions in Excel. Understand how Excel's add-in tools can be used for regression analysis. Learn how to use Excel's specialized matrix algebra operations. Understand how to optimize functions using Excel's Solver add-in. Portfolio math : gain an in-depth understanding of the statistical concepts that form the foundation of portfolio theory, including expected return, standard deviation, covariance and correlation. Learn how to calculate these measures in Excel, and understand their economic significance. Learn how the inputs to a portfolio model can be estimated from historical data using Excel. Optimization : learn the basic principles of constrained and unconstrained optimization using Excel's matrix algebra functions and Solver. Markowitz's model : understand how Markowitz's model is used to measure the risk of a portfolio. Understand the concept of diversification and how it relates to correlation and covariance. Learn how to implement Markowitz's formula for multiple assets using Excel's built-in matrix algebra functions. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) : understand the statistical foundations of the CAPM model. Understand how beta is derived and how it is interpreted. Understand the significance of the Capital Market Line and the Security Market Line and how they may be implemented in Excel. Learn how to compute and interpret Jensen's alpha. The Efficient Frontier : understand the properties of the efficient frontier and how it can be implemented using optimization techniques. Learn how to construct the efficient frontier using Excel Solver. Understand how the minimum variance portfolio and the market portfolio are constructed. Learn how to optimize the weights of the assets in a portfolio to earn a target return given any constraints on the risk of the portfolio. Learn how the ability to sell stocks short affects the efficient frontier. Understand how the availability of a risk-free asset impacts the efficient frontier. Understand how portfolio rebalancing may be used to preserve a portfolio's risk and return characteristics over time. Back to this topicBack to top.
Bank Capital Adequacy Modeling and Basel III Compliance.
This course presents an overview of the Basel Accords and how they have evolved since their debut in 1988. The three-pillar structure is explained in great detail, with a focus on the measurement of capital requirements under Pillar 1. The Value at Risk methodology is covered in depth as a technique for computing market risk capital requirements. The key features of the approaches to computing credit risk capital are covered: the Standardized Approach, the Foundation Internal Ratings Based Approach and the Advanced Internal Ratings Based Approach. The three approaches to computing operational risk capital are explored in detail: the Basic Indicator Approach, the Standardized Approach and the Advanced Measurement Approach. The new features of Basel III are explained, including changes to the measurement of Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital, updates to the calculation of credit risk capital and a more advanced approach to measuring liquidity risk.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Overview of the Basel Accords – understand how the Basel Accords have evolved since being introduced in 1988. Learn how Basel II improves risk measurement and how it is organized into three pillars: determining regulatory capital for market, credit and operational risk; supervisory review and market discipline. Gain a broad understanding of the different methods that are used to compute capital requirements for market risk, credit risk and operational risk under Pillar 1. Understand the four key principles of supervisory review under Pillar 2: having a process for assessing overall capital adequacy, evaluation of banks' internal capital adequacy strategies, expecting banks to hold more capital than required, and early intervention. Understand that Pillar 3 is designed to impose market discipline on banks by requiring them to disclose key information about risk and capital holdings. Modeling capital requirements for market risk – understand the Value at Risk methodology and how it is used to calculate capital requirements under the Basel Accords. Modeling capital requirements for credit risk – learn how the Standardized Approach assigns risk weights to different types of assets, such as claims against corporations, loans to individuals and small businesses, residential and commercial real estate loans and claims against sovereign governments and central banks. Understand how the Standardized Approach incorporates several risk mitigating techniques, such as collateral, netting and credit derivatives. Understand how the Foundation Internal Ratings Based (IRB) Approach enables banks to use their own estimates of default probabilities, while the Advanced Internal Ratings Based Approach allows banks to estimate their own default probabilities, loss given default, exposure at default and effective maturity for each exposure. Measuring capital requirements for operational risk – understand how the Basic Indicator Approach computes the operational capital charge as 15% of a bank's average gross income. Learn how the Standardized Approach divides a bank's activities into eight business lines, and weights each with a risk factor. Learn how the Advanced Measurement Approach enables a bank to use internal data to determine the appropriate operational risk capital charge. Basel III – understand the changes that will occur under Basel III. These include updated definitions for Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital, the risk-based capital ratio, countercyclical capital buffers, changes to the Standardized and IRB approaches to credit risk and the measurement of liquidity risk. Back to this topicBack to top.
Capital Markets & Quantitative: Product Classes.
Credit Derivatives Modeling in Excel & VBA.
This course provides an in-depth introduction to credit derivatives modeling. Techniques for calibrating the LIBOR curve are introduced. Alternative approaches to modeling default probabilities are considered, including Merton's model, reduced-form models and the hazard rate model. The basic properties of credit derivatives are covered in detail, along with pricing models. Strategies for hedging credit risk with these derivatives are discussed in detail. Correlation products are covered, including Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and single-tranche CDOs. These are priced with Monte Carlo simulation while hedging strategies are developed. All models are implemented in Excel/VBA.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel - learn several of Excel's specialized bond pricing functions. Understand how to use Excel's add-in tools to implement advanced statistical techniques, such as regression analysis and random number generation. Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) - learn the fundamental programming structures of the VBA language, and how it can be used to extend Excel's capabilities. Statistical foundations - learn how to implement Monte Carlo simulation using Excel/VBA. Learn techniques for improving the speed of convergence, including importance sampling and low-discrepancy sequences. Calibrating the LIBOR curve - understand how the LIBOR curve may be estimated from market data in order to price credit derivatives. Default rate modeling - understand how Merton's structural model may be used to estimate default probabilities. Understand alternative approaches to default rate modeling, including reduced-form models and the hazard rate model. Credit spread derivatives - understand how credit spread forwards, swaps and options are structured and how they are priced. Understand how credit spread options can be priced with an extension of the Black-Scholes model. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) - understand the properties of a CDS and how it can be priced. Learn how a CDS can be used to create a synthetic position in a risky asset, such as a corporate bond. Understand how CDS expose investors to changes in the credit spread curve, LIBOR curve and recovery rates and how these risks may be measured and hedged. Understand how credit DV01, spread convexity and theta are defined for a CDS. Correlation products - understand the properties of credit derivatives whose value depends on the behavior of two or more underlying assets. Understand the structure of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and the motivations for issuing them. Learn how to price CDO tranches using Monte Carlo simulation and other alternative approaches. Understand how to measure the risk associated with a CDO tranche. Understand how nth-to-Default Swaps are structured and how they may be used to enhance returns through the use of leverage. Back to this topicBack to top.
Fixed Income Modeling and Risk Management.
This course is designed to provide an intensive introduction to fixed income markets and interest rate derivatives. The course presents several alternative measures of interest rates: yield to maturity, spot rates, forward rates and discount factors; techniques for pricing bonds with these measures are covered. The measurement and management of interest rate risk is then explored in depth.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel - learn how Excel can be used to implement several sophisticated models of interest rates and interest rate risk. Understand how interest rate derivative securities can be priced based on these models. Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) - learn how to extend the capabilities of Excel with the VBA programming language. Understand the basic programming structures of VBA, such as arrays, objects, properties, methods, and branching and looping statements. Learn how to write user-defined functions and macros. Interest rate modeling - understand the definitions of yield to maturity, spot rates, forward rates and discount factors. Learn how these measures relate to each other and how they can be used to price fixed-income securities, including bonds. Understand different types of compounding conventions. Measuring interest rate risk - understand the properties of duration and convexity and how they are derived. Learn how duration and convexity are used to measure and manage interest rate risk. Understand how duration hedging is implemented and the drawbacks to this approach. Gain insight into how convexity can be used to increase the effectiveness of duration hedging. Principal components analysis (PCA) - understand how PCA is used to identify the factors that explain the behavior of the yield curve. Learn how PCA can be used to derive more realistic versions of duration, known as level, slope and curvature duration, and how these may be used to hedge interest rate risk. Modeling interest rates - understand how the term structure of interest rates can be modeled as a binomial tree and implemented in Excel. Understand how the binomial tree can be used to price callable and puttable bonds, floating rate bonds and inverse floaters. Learn how the tree is used to compute analytics such as effective duration, effective convexity and option-adjusted spread (OAS.) Understand how OAS is used in rich-cheap analysis to identify the relative value of different fixed income securities. Monte Carlo simulation - understand how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to price fixed income securities and compute effective duration, effective convexity and OAS. Interest rate derivatives - understand the basic properties of interest rate futures, forwards, swaps and options. Learn how interest rate options can be priced with a modified version of the Black-Scholes model and the binomial interest rate tree. Hedging with interest rate derivatives - understand basic strategies for hedging interest rate risk with interest rate futures, such as Eurodollar futures and Treasury bill futures. Understand the concept of basis risk. Learn how hedging strategies can be implemented with interest rate swaps and options. Passive fixed income portfolio management strategies - understand how passive strategies are used to replicate the returns to an index, such as the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index. Learn different approaches to replication, such as stratified sampling, tracking-error minimization, factor-based replication, and derivatives-based replication. Understand how immunization strategies can be implemented; these include cash-flow matching and duration matching. Learn how derivatives can be used to implement passive strategies. Active fixed income portfolio management strategies - learn how market timing strategies are implemented based on anticipated yield curve changes. These include "riding the yield curve" and bullet, barbell, ladder and butterfly strategies. Understand how trading strategies can be based on ex Back to this topicBack to top.
Interest Rate Derivatives Modeling and Term Structure of Rates.
This course provides an analysis of the term structure of interest rates and interest rate derivatives pricing models. Several different types of interest rate derivatives are covered, including interest rate futures and forwards, interest rate swaps and interest rate options. The uses of these derivatives for hedging and trading purposes is explored in depth. Black's model is applied to the pricing of European interest rate options. Equilibrium models of the term structure of interest rates are introduced and implemented in Excel. These models are used to price zero-coupon bonds and coupon bonds. The drawbacks of equilibrium term structure models are considered. No-arbitrage models of the term structure are explored in depth, including the lognormal model, Black-Derman-Toy (BDT) and Hull-White. The comparative strengths and weaknesses of these models are considered. The BDT model is implemented in VBA as a binomial interest rate tree. The model is then used to price European, American and Exotic interest rate options.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel - learn how Excel can be used to implement several sophisticated pricing models for interest rate derivatives. Understand how simple models of the term structure of interest rates can be implemented in Excel. Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) - learn how to extend the capabilities of Excel with the VBA programming language. Understand the basic programming structures of VBA, such as arrays, objects, properties, methods, and branching and looping statements. Learn how to write user-defined functions and macros. Stochastic processes - learn the statistical properties of key stochastic processes and how they may be used to model the evolution of interest rates over time. Interest rate forwards and futures - understand the properties of interest rate forward contracts, such as forward rate agreements (FRAs), and how they are priced. Learn how FRAs are used to lock in a borrowing or a lending rate. Learn how interest rate futures, such as Eurodollar futures, are used for hedging fluctuations in interest rates. Understand how basis risk arises when hedging with futures contracts. Learn how to implement duration-based hedges with futures contracts. Learn how and why cross-hedging is implemented, and how to measure its effectiveness with regression analysis. Understand the convexity adjustment that relates forward rates of interest to futures rates. Interest rate swaps - learn how interest rate swaps are structured. Understand how swap rates are determined from the term structure of interest rates, and how interest rate swaps are priced. Learn how interest rate swaps may be used to hedge risk by transforming floating rate assets/liabilities to fixed rate and vice versa. Learn how the risk of a negative or positive GAP can be hedged with an appropriate position in an interest rate swap. Understand how a synthetic position in a security can be created with an interest rate swap. Interest rate options - become familiar with the properties of interest rate options, such as caps, floors, collars, swaptions and futures options. Understand how European interest rate options can be priced with Black's model, how Greeks can be calculated for these options, and how the prices of caps, floors and swaps are related. Understand how the Greeks can be used to implement hedging strategies. Analyze the strengths and weaknesses of Black's model. Understand the properties of American and exotic interest rate options. Learn how caps can be used to hedge floating rate liabilities, floors can be used to protect the returns to floating rate assets and collars are used to set upper and lower boundaries on interest rates. Understand how swaptions can be used to lock in a maximum rate for floating rate debt, and how they can be used to transform fixed-rate assets into floating rate assets to benefit from rising rates. Equilibrium term structure models - understand the key features of two key equilibrium models: Vasicek and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross. Understand how these models can be used to price coupon bonds and zero coupon bonds. Understand how these models are derived and why they are not appropriate for pricing interest rate derivatives. No-arbitrage term structure models - learn the key properties of no-arbitrage term structure models, such as the lognormal model, Black-Derman-Toy (BDT) and Hull-White. Gain insights into the stochastic processes that underlie these models. Understand how to implement the Black-Derman-Toy model using VBA. Learn how to use the Black-Derman-Toy model to price European interest rate options, such as caps, floors and collars, and compare the results with Black's model. Use BDT to price American and exotic interest rate options, such as barrier caps and floors, bounded caps and floors, cancelable swaps and captions and floortions. Back to this topicBack to top.
Foreign Exchange (FX) Modeling & Hedging.
The course presents an overview of exchange rates, foreign exchange risk and strategies for pricing and hedging with foreign exchange derivatives. The basic features of the foreign exchange markets are introduced, along with several international parity conditions. The key properties of foreign exchanges forwards, futures, swaps and options are covered in detail; pricing models are introduced for each type of derivative along with hedging strategies. Several models are introduced for pricing foreign exchange options and are implemented in VBA. These models are used to compute the Greeks and implement sophisticated hedging strategies. The properties of exotic foreign exchange options are covered; these are priced with stochastic volatility option pricing models.
Objetivos de aprendizado.
Excel - understand how to use Excel's optimization package Solver for applications such as computing implied volatility. Learn how to implement regression analysis using Excel's Data Analysis Tool-Pak add-in. Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) - learn how to extend the capabilities of Excel with the VBA programming language. Understand the basic programming structures of VBA, such as arrays, objects, properties, methods, and branching and looping statements. Learn how to write user-defined functions and macros. The foreign exchange markets - understand the meaning of spot, forward and cross-exchange rates. Learn how real exchange rates are determined from nominal exchange rates, and how both are calculated. International parity relations - understand how exchange rates are affected by interest rates and inflation rates through purchasing power parity and the International Fisher Effect. Learn how interest rate parity ties together the values of spot and forward exchange rates, and how violations of IRP lead to arbitrage profits. Understand how uncovered interest rate parity "carry trade," can be used to increase returns. Foreign exchange forwards and futures - understand the properties of foreign exchange forwards and futures; understand how FX forward contracts are priced. Learn how marking-to-market affects the relationship between futures and forward prices. Understand how FX forwards can be used to lock in the exchange rate at which future transactions will take place. Learn different approaches to futures hedging and how the optimal hedge ratio can be determined with regression analysis. Understand how basis risk arises with FX futures hedging and how cross hedges are implemented and their effectiveness. Foreign exchange swaps - learn how FX swaps can be priced as a sequence of FX forward contracts or as a portfolio of bonds. Understand how FX swaps can be used to convert the denomination of assets and liabilities from one currency into another in order to hedge FX risk or increase rates of return. FX options - understand the basic features of FX options and several hedging strategies, including bull spreads, bear spreads, butterfly spreads, straddles and strangles. Learn the properties of several exotic FX options, including barrier options, digital options and quantos. Understand the properties of the standard Greeks: delta, gamma, theta, vega and rho, as well as the higher-order Greeks, such as vanna and volga. Implied volatility - understand how implied volatility can be computed from the Black-Scholes model using root-finding techniques such as Newton-Raphson. Understand the properties of the volatility skew and how the term structure of volatilities is calculated. Learn how the implied volatility surface is constructed from the volatility skew and the term structure of volatility. Foreign exchange option pricing models - learn how plain vanilla FX options can be priced with an extension of the Black-Scholes model, known as the Garman-Kohlhagen model, and how the Greeks may be derived from the model. Understand how the Greeks are used for hedging strategies. Learn how exotic FX options can be priced with the stochastic volatility SABR (stochastic alpha beta rho) model and how the Greeks can be determined with the model. Understand the vanna-volga approach to pricing exotic FX options and computing the Greeks. Learn strategies for hedging delta, vega, vanna and volga risk. Back to this topicBack to top.
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FitGirl Repacks.
Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit – v1.0.5.0s + All DLCs.
#571 Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit v1.0.5.0s + All DLCs.
Genres/Tags: Arcade, Racing, 3D, Cars.
Companies: Criterion Games / Electronic Arts.
Repack Size: 3.9 GB [Selective Download]
Download Mirrors.
Kickass Torrents / ExtraTorrent [magnet] [.torrent file only] MULTI12 RuTor [magnet] (ENG/RUS) FreeTorrents (ENG/RUS) Tapochek [magnet] (ENG/RUS) Filehoster: MultiUpload (10+ hosters, interchangeable) MULTI12.
Screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Repack Features.
Based on Need. For. Speed. Hot. Pursuit. MULTi12-PROPHET ISO release: ppt-nshp. iso (8,306,823,168 bytes) 100% Lossless & MD5 Perfect: all files are identical to originals after installation NOTHING ripped, NOTHING re-encoded Selective download feature: you can skip downloading of language packs you don’t need Significantly smaller archive size (compressed from 7.7 to 3.9 GB for any single language) Installation takes 7-20 minutes (depending on your system) After-install integrity check so you could make sure that everything installed properly HDD space after installation: 8 GB Repack uses pZlib library by Razor12911.
You can skip downloading of language files you don’t need. Here is the list of selective files:
setup-fitgirl-selective-english. bin (also MUST be downloaded for Czech, Dutch, Hungarian, Polish and Traditional Chinese installations) setup-fitgirl-selective-french. bin setup-fitgirl-selective-german. bin setup-fitgirl-selective-italian. bin setup-fitgirl-selective-japanese. bin setup-fitgirl-selective-russian. bin setup-fitgirl-selective-spanish. bin.
Well, you may call it a surprise repack. Several scene releases of old games were made in last few days. NFS:HP is considered as one of the best NFSs, so I’ve decided to make a proper repack.
This is the last repack of 2016. Happy New Year and wait for more in 2017!
Now I have to fit some Russian salad and champaigne in me – a little bit of Russian food and French drinks is good for health and morale! 🙂
Champions of Anteria – v1.7.499537.X + All DLCs.
#570 Champions of Anteria v1.7.499537.X + All DLCs.
Genres/Tags: Strategy, Tactics, Isometric, 3D, Pausable Real-time.
Companies: Blue Byte / Ubisoft Entertainment.
Download Mirrors.
ExtraTorrent / Kickass Torrents [magnet] [.torrent file only] MULTI7 RuTor [magnet] ENG/RUS FreeTorrents ENG/RUS Tapochek [magnet] ENG/RUS Filehoster: MultiUpload (10+ hosters, interchangeable) MULTI7.
All links were updated on January 4, 2017. “Chunks error” fixed. If you have the previous repack, get updated installers and bins 06 and 07 (06 needed for ENG/RUS, 06+07 needed for MULTI7)
Screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Repack Features.
Based on Champions. of. Anteria. MULTi6-PLAZA ISO release: plaza-champions. of. anteria. iso (9,562,161,152 bytes) All DLCs included and activated Missing Russian voiceovers added (42 MB) 100% Lossless & MD5 Perfect: all files are identical to originals after installation NOTHING ripped, NOTHING re-encoded Selective download feature: you can skip downloading and installing of voiceover packs you don’t need Smaller archive size (compressed from 8.9 to 6.8 GB for any single language) Installation takes 12-30 minutes (depending on your system) After-install integrity check so you could make sure that everything installed properly HDD space after installation: 10 GB (
13 GB during installation) If you want to switch the game to Russian, copy CODEX. rus-eng in game root to CODEX. ini, then select Russian in game menu. To reverse it back, copy CODEX. multi6 to CODEX. ini.
Your enemies may grunt unintelligibly, but that doesn’t mean they’re stupid. Defeating these beasts will require thoughtful strategies, clever tactics, and the right combination of three Champions out of the five. Choose well, and the combined strength of your Champions’ elemental powers will carve through your enemies like a hot sword through molten lava. Choose poorly, and you’ll be monster chow. At any time, you can pause the game, switch up your tactics, and rejoin the melee without missing a beat.
Batman: The Telltale Series – Complete Season (Episodes 1-5)
#569 Batman: The Telltale Series Complete Season (Episodes 1-5)
Genres/Tags: Adventure, Third-person, 3D.
Download Mirrors.
Kickass Torrents / ExtraTorrent (later) [magnet] [.torrent file only] RuTor [magnet] FreeTorrents Tapochek [magnet] Filehoster: MultiUpload (10+ hosters, interchangeable)
Screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Repack Features.
Based on Batman. Episode.5-CODEX ISO release: codex-batman. episode.5.iso (12,890,767,360 bytes) 100% Lossless but NOT MD5 Perfect: all game content is identical to original, but files were decrypted Some files were replaced with ones from R. G. Mechanics repack (gratz, Spider91!) with another compression, also supported by game engine NOTHING ripped, some game archives rebuilt Significantly smaller archive size (compressed from 12 to 5.2 GB) Installation takes from 15 minutes (8-cores CPU + SSD) up to one hour (2-cores CPU + HDD) After-install integrity check so you could make sure that everything installed properly HDD space after installation: 13 GB (
18 GB during installation) Use “Language Selector. exe” in game root to change the game language.
Enter the fractured psyche of Bruce Wayne and discover the powerful and far-reaching consequences of your choices as the Dark Knight.
In this gritty and violent new story from the award-winning creators of The Walking Dead – A Telltale Games Series, you’ll make discoveries that will shatter Bruce Wayne’s world, and the already fragile stability of a corrupt Gotham City.
Your actions and your choices will determine the fate of the Batman.
Includes access to all five episodes (All episodes available now) in this all-new series from the award-winning studio, Telltale Games.
Episode 1: Realm of Shadows.
Episode 2: Children of Arkham.
Episode 3: New World Order.
Episode 4: Guardian of Gotham.
Episode 5: City of Light.
CoD Black Ops 3 Repack Status.
Oh, I know. This is the longest repack I ever done. And it’s even outdated already (not something you should care, actually). But finally, it’s done. I mean I’ve made all proper installation tests (each of them took hours). The problem was the complexity of repack, ability to download lossy audio and excessive selective options.
Just look at this BIN-files list. I definitely have to write a guide for it! 🙂
There are 3 installers for this repack. One for main data, one for lossy audio and one for lossless. I made it that way so you could easily switch from lossy to lossless option later, if you like, without reinstalling the whole game.
Installation times are following (for SP only):
2-3 hours for main data;
10 minutes for lossless audio;
1 hour for lossy audio. If you add Zombie Mode or Multiplayer with bots – add some hours above. If you’re really insane – you may install ALL modes + ALL languages to get the largest game installation ever available (lossy audio installation is not recommended for “all in mode” – it will easily take half a day!).
Here are the example sizes of the repack for English language (other languages vary a little bit):
SP with lossy audio: 32.4 GB.
SP with lossless audio: 38.7 GB.
SP + Zombies with lossy audio: 38.6 GB.
SP + Zombies with lossless audio: 47.7 GB.
SP + Multiplayer with lossy audio: 39.2 GB.
SP + Multiplayer with lossless audio: 46.6 GB.
SP + Zombies + Multiplayer with lossy audio: 45.4 GB.
SP + Zombies + Multiplayer with lossless audio: 55.5 GB (Complete lossless pack)
Three updates were released after my repack was done. One of them is cracked. But, AFAIK, none of them introduce anything for SP/MP/ZM modes, only fixes for online players.
I may return to BO3 next year, cause developers mentioned that they may add another DLC. Dunno if I’m gonna redo the whole repack, relatively big patch seems more sane in this case.
As for release date – now I have to write the whole guide for installing it. Or many of you will lost in files 🙂
The Butterfly Sign – v1.1.2/Update 5.
#568 The Butterfly Sign v1.1.2/Update 5.
Genres/Tags: Action, Adventure, First-person, 3D.
Download Mirrors.
ExtraTorrent [magnet] [.torrent file only] RuTor [magnet] FreeTorrents Tapochek [magnet] Filehoster: MultiUpload (10+ hosters, interchangeable)
Screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Repack Features.
Based on The. Butterfly. Sign-PLAZA ISO release: plaza-the. butterfly. sign. iso (10,449,190,912 bytes) Updates 4 & 5 (v1.1 & v1.1.2) installed over, courtesy of Christsnatcher from cs. rin. ru 100% Lossless & MD5 Perfect: all files are identical to originals after installation NOTHING ripped, NOTHING re-encoded Smaller archive size (compressed from 9.7 to 7.3 GB) Installation takes 5-10 minutes (depending on your system) After-install integrity check so you could make sure that everything installed properly HDD space after installation: 19 GB Language can be changed in game settings At least 2 GB of free RAM (inc. virtual) required for installing this repack.
The Butterfly Sign is a first person detective story putting players in shoes of the lone survivor and the only witness to a disastrous incident. The protagonist’s destiny depends on his memories. That is why he dares to take a desperate measure. He takes an experimental drug “Rammex” which immerses him in the depths of his mind and precisely restores all the events occurred to him. In his memories, the protagonist will discover the ones responsible for the disaster, collecting clues bit by bit…
Explore Memority hospital and its premises, learn its secrets and restore the chain of events that took place here. Solve the puzzles and murders committed at Memority. Find clues, compare the facts and avoid tricky obstacles in your way. Penetrate into the new, previously inaccessible memories. Make conclusions and choose the correct route, because all your decisions affect the outcome of the game and influence the fact whether you can get to the truth. Thuth that was lost in your own mind…
Excellent graphics achieved with Unreal Engine 4 – the most advanced game engine in the world. We used photogrammetry technology and high-resolution textures to create the world of The Butterfly Sign as beautiful as possible. Non-linear dialogues and the ability to make choices which will affect the course of the story and the ending. The progress of the dialogue always depends on your location. And you always have the opportunity to make choices, sometimes insignificant, sometimes important for the further story. Brainstorm your head with investigation of murders, puzzles and mysteries. The Butterfly Sign develops the player’s skills of criminology and deduction. For those players who prefer the story, there is always the easiest difficulty level, but if you are really up to the true detective, you have a variety of other levels, including the hardest one causing the game restart after a single death. In The Butterfly Sign, the events take place in the past and in the present simultaneously. The atmospheric sound. We have paid a great attention to sound effects in The Butterfly Sign. Every lamp, every water drop falling from the ceiling has its own sound. Each room boasts of its own unique ambience corresponding to its style and mood.
Space Hulk: Deathwing + Multiplayer.
#567 Space Hulk: Deathwing.
Genres/Tags: Action, Tactical shooter, First-person, 3D.
Companies: Streum On Studio, Cyanide, Focus Home Interactive.
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ExtraTorrent [magnet] [.torrent file only] FreeTorrents Tapochek [magnet] Filehoster: MultiUpload (10+ hosters, interchangeable)
Screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Repack Features.
Based on Space. Hulk. Deathwing-CODEX ISO release: codex-space. hulk. deathwing. iso (17,860,826,368 bytes) UberPsyX Steamworks Fix, allowing multiplayer with friends, available in NoDVD folder after installation 100% Lossless & MD5 Perfect: all files are identical to originals after installation NOTHING ripped, NOTHING re-encoded Significantly smaller archive size (compressed from 16.6 to 9.2 GB) Installation takes 10-25 minutes (depending on your system) After-install integrity check so you could make sure that everything installed properly At least 2 GB of free RAM (inc. virtual) required for installing this repack HDD space after installation: 32 GB.
Space Hulk: Deathwing is a First-Person Shooter experience based on Games Workshop’s classic Space Hulk boardgame set in the universe of Warhammer 40,000. Space Hulk: Deathwing was developed on Unreal Engine 4, and offers you and up to three of your friends the chance to experience a desperate battle against Genestealers in the claustrophobic tunnels of a Space Hulk. You also gain skills, new abilities, and new equipment as you earn experience during missions.
Space Hulks drift along the currents of the Warp, the immaterial dimension of Chaos. Made up of gigantic, mangled asteroids, ship wrecks, and other stellar debris, they can grow to the size of a moon, and often contain treasured and ancient lost technologies. They are often also infested with broods of the lethal Genestealer.
In the game you take on the role of a Space Marine from one of the most secret and most feared Space Marine forces: the Deathwing of the Dark Angels Chapter.
As a Librarian, you can also master the destructive powers of the Psykers. Your skills and performance in battle grant you Fervor Points to spend on 3 skill trees, allowing you to improve your abilities and unlock new powers.
Don your Terminator armour and arm yourself with the iconic weaponry of the Space Marines and face the threats that await you in the Space Hulk.
Take on the role of a Space Marine Terminator from the most secret and feared Deathwing. Plunge into the claustrophobic tunnels of a Space Hulk. and experience a desperate battle against the Genestealers. Unlock new abilities through 3 skill trees. Grow in power and weild devastating weapons. Coop mode: play with your friends as a Terminator squad in an epic coop mode.
KAT is back!
Click on that screenshot to find your next big KAT 🙂 It’s not big YET, but many of us will help it to grow!
As you could guess, all my future (and some old uploads) will be on new KAT too. Yes, I just love them 🙂
Sniper Elite 3 – v1.15a + All DLCs + Multiplayer.
#566 Sniper Elite 3 v1.15a + All DLCs + Multiplayer.
Genres/Tags: Action, Shooter, Stealth, First-person, Third-person, 3D.
Companies: Rebellion Developments / 505 Games.
Download Mirrors.
ExtraTorrent [magnet] [.torrent file only] RuTor [magnet] FreeTorrents Tapochek [magnet] Filehoster: MultiUpload (10+ hosters, interchangeable)
Screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Repack Features.
Based on Sniper. Elite.3.MULTi9-PLAZA ISO release: plaza-sniper. elite.3.iso (22,117,908,480 bytes) Sniper. Elite.3.MULTi9.Crackfix-PLAZA applied Sniper. Elite.3.V1.15a. Steamworks. Fix-REVOLT, which allows free multiplayer via Steam, available in NoDVD folder after installation 100% Lossless & MD5 Perfect: all files are identical to originals after installation NOTHING ripped, NOTHING re-encoded Significantly smaller archive size (compressed from 20.6 to 8.5 GB) Installation takes from 25 minutes (on SSD) to 50 minutes (on HDD) After-install integrity check so you could make sure that everything installed properly HDD space after installation: 27 GB (
29 GB during installation) Use “Switch” batch files in game root to change the game language.
Observe. Plan. Execute. ADAPT.
The latest chapter in the award-winning series, SNIPER ELITE 3 takes players to the unforgiving yet exotic terrain of North Africa in a savage conflict against Germany’s infamous Afrika Korps.
Stalk your targets through the twisting canyons, lush oases and ancient cities of the Western Desert in the deadly rush to sabotage a Nazi super-weapons programme that could end Allied resistance for good.
Use stealth, planning and execution to hunt your targets – whether human or machine. From signature long distance kills, to melee takedowns, distractions and explosive traps, you are as deadly up close as you are from afar.
It must end here. You are the turning point. Because one bullet can change history…
Award-winning gunplay – Experience celebrated rifle ballistics honed to perfection. Take account of distance, gravity, wind, even your heart rate for intensely satisfying third person combat. Expansive new environments – Stalk huge multi-route levels with multiple primary and secondary objectives than can be tackled in any order. Never play the same way twice. Real tactical choice – Adapt to any situation. Use stealth, distraction, traps and sound masking . If things go hot, use the new Relocate mechanic to slip into the shadows and start the hunt again on your own terms. Revamped human X-Ray Kill cam – The acclaimed X-Ray kill-cam is back and bolder than ever, including a detailed muscle layers, 3D mesh particles and the complete human circulatory system. New X-Ray vehicle takedowns – See vehicles disintegrate in intricate detail with X-Ray vehicle takedowns. Multi-stage destruction allows you to take out armoured cars, trucks and Tiger tanks piece-by-piece. Tense adversarial multiplayer – Five unique modes of online competitive action. Earn Medals and Ribbons as you play. Gain XP across all game modes, customise your character, weapons and loadout. Become a true Sniper Elite! Explosive co-op play – Play the entire campaign in two player online co-op, or put your teamwork to the ultimate test in two dedicated co-op modes, Overwatch and Survival. Customise your experience – Veteran or Rookie, play your way. Turn off all assistance and turn up the AI, or customise the experience to your preferred playstyle. Tweak the regularity of X-Ray kill cams, or turn them off all together.
Allied Reinforcement Outfits Pack Axis Weapons Pack Camouflage Weapons Pack Eastern Front Weapons Pack Hunter Weapons Pack International Camouflage Rifles Pack Patriot Weapons Pack Save Churchill Part 1: In Shadows Save Churchill Part 2: Belly of the Beast Save Churchill Part 3: Confrontation Sniper Rifles Pack Target Hitler: Hunt the Grey Wolf U. S. Camouflage Rifles Pack.
Filthy Lucre + CrackFix + Multiplayer.
#565 Filthy Lucre + CrackFix + Multiplayer.
Genres/Tags: Action, Stealth, Top-down, 3D.
Download Mirrors.
ExtraTorrent [magnet] [.torrent file only] RuTor [magnet] FreeTorrents Tapochek [magnet] Filehoster: MultiUpload (10+ hosters, interchangeable)
Screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Repack Features.
Based on Filthy. Lucre-CODEX ISO release: codex-filthy. lucre. iso (4,110,614,528 bytes) Filthy. Lucre. Crackfix-CODEX applied over Universal Steamworks Fix by UberPsyX available in NoDVD folder after installation, read “Instructions. txt” for more info on free multiplayer via Steam 100% Lossless & MD5 Perfect: all files are identical to originals after installation NOTHING ripped, NOTHING re-encoded Significantly smaller archive size (compressed from 3.8 to 2.1 GB) Installation takes 2-4 minutes (depending on your system) After-install integrity check so you could make sure that everything installed properly HDD space after installation: 8 GB Use “Language Selector. exe” in game root to change the game language.
Filthy Lucre is a tactical stealth HEIST game that gamers can play in single player and co-op, both split screen and online. With 15 missions across 5 locations, there are 30+ upgradable weapons and gadgets to unlock.
Missions can be approached in a variety of ways. Stay low, in cover, silent as the grave with a hand-full of throwing knives, or try planting a remote mine and waiting for the right moment to hit the trigger… just don’t forget to clean up after yourself and move the body before it’s found!
Every session plays out differently based on your actions, once you’ve started to bring on the heat, enemies will react and respond with brute force, so make sure you get out before the net closes in.
Work together to accomplish the perfect heist! Players can equip items like the noise maker that can pull guards off their patrol routes to give them an opportunity for a silent takedown. In co-op, a well-timed diversion can allow players to sneak up on an enemy and take them down leaving a friend free to grab the loot.
Set against backdrop of a gritty and crime wracked London, all missions are available at a glorious 60fps, in single player, local co – op and online. Filthy Lucre has full keyboard, mouse & gamepad support, along with comprehensive Steam support including Achievements and Trading Cards.
Miniature: The Story Puzzle.
#564 Miniature: The Story Puzzle.
Genres/Tags: Logic, Puzzle, Isometric, 3D.
Download Mirrors.
ExtraTorrent [magnet] [.torrent file only] FreeTorrents Tapochek [magnet] Filehoster: MultiUpload (10+ hosters, interchangeable)
Screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Repack Features.
Based on Miniature. The. Story. Puzzle-PROPHET ISO release: ppt-mtsp. iso (1,850,644,565 bytes) 100% Lossless & MD5 Perfect: all files are identical to originals after installation NOTHING ripped, NOTHING re-encoded Significantly smaller archive size (compressed from 1.7 to 1 GB) Installation takes 2-5 minutes (depending on your system) After-install integrity check so you could make sure that everything installed properly HDD space after installation: 2 GB (
1 GB on system drive during installation)
The Miniature is a unique 3D Story-based puzzle game, a stunning visual world, fascinating music and original game mode.
This is a special puzzle game, all dioramas come with new locations, which require being put into the right order to learn the different stories.

Uma História: a Palavra do Ano do Dicionário.
Palavra do ano.
Nossa escolha de Palavra do Ano serve como um símbolo dos eventos mais significativos de cada ano e das tendências de pesquisa. É uma oportunidade para refletirmos sobre a linguagem e as ideias que representam a cada ano. Então, dê um passeio pela estrada da memória para lembrar de todas as nossas seleções anteriores da Palavra do Ano.
Não foi moda, engraçado, nem foi cunhado no Twitter, mas achamos que a mudança contou uma história real sobre como nossos usuários definiram 2010. Ao contrário de 2008, a mudança não era mais um slogan de campanha. Mas o termo ainda tinha muito peso. Aqui está um trecho do nosso anúncio da Palavra do Ano em 2010:
O debate nacional pode ser resumido pela pergunta: Nos últimos dois anos, houve mudanças suficientes? Tem havido muito? Enquanto isso, muitos americanos continuam enfrentando mudanças em suas casas, contas bancárias e empregos. Só o tempo dirá se a última onda de mudanças pela qual os americanos votaram nas eleições intermediárias resultará em um resultado negativo ou positivo.
Tergiversar.
Esta palavra rara foi escolhida para representar 2011 porque descreveu muito do mundo ao nosso redor. Tergiversar significa "mudar repetidamente a atitude ou opiniões de uma pessoa em relação a uma causa, assunto, etc." Os editores do dicionário viram o mercado de ações, os grupos políticos e a opinião pública passarem por uma montanha-russa de mudanças ao longo de 2011. E assim, nomeamos tergiversar a Palavra do Ano de 2011.
Em um ano conhecido pelo movimento Occupy e o que ficou conhecido como a Primavera Árabe, nossos lexicógrafos escolheram a tag como sua Palavra do Ano de 2012. Aqui está um trecho do nosso lançamento que dá uma boa explicação para a nossa escolha:
2012 viu as campanhas políticas mais caras e alguns dos eventos climáticos mais extremos da história da humanidade, desde enchentes na Austrália a ciclones na China, ao furacão Sandy e muitos outros.
Ficamos sérios em 2013. A privacidade de todos estava naquele ano, desde a revelação de Edward Snowden do Project PRISM até a chegada do Google Glass. Aqui está um trecho do nosso anúncio em 2013:
Muitos de nós abraçamos as mídias sociais, optando por oferecer informações íntimas e fotografias pessoais no Facebook, Twitter e Instagram; Esta participação robusta ecoa uma observação de Mark Zuckerberg em 2010 de que o nível de conforto do público em compartilhar informações pessoais on-line é uma “norma social” que “evoluiu com o tempo”. Mesmo assim, uma pesquisa recente da Harris Poll mostra que os jovens estão agora monitorando e alterando suas configurações de privacidade mais do que nunca, um desenvolvimento que o USA Today apelidou de “efeito de Edward Snowden”.
Alerta de spoiler: As coisas não ficaram menos sérias em 2014. Nossa Palavra do Ano foi a exposição, que destacou o surto do vírus Ebola no ano, chocantes atos de violência tanto no exterior quanto nos EUA e o roubo generalizado de informações pessoais. Aqui está o que nós tivemos a dizer sobre a exposição em 2014:
Do senso de vulnerabilidade que permeia o Ebola à visibilidade de atos de crime ou má conduta que provocaram conversas críticas sobre raça, gênero e violência, vários sentidos de exposição foram expostos ao público este ano.
A fluidez da identidade foi um grande tema em 2015. A linguagem em torno do gênero e da identidade sexual se ampliou, tornando-se mais inclusiva, com acréscimos ao dicionário, como gênero fluido, bem como o prefixo neutro de gênero Mx. A identidade racial também teve muito debate em 2015, depois que Rachel Dolezal, uma mulher branca se apresentando como uma mulher negra, disse que se identificou como biracial ou transracial. Nossa Palavra do Ano em 2015 refletiu as muitas facetas da identidade que surgiram naquele ano.
Xenofobia.
Em 2016, selecionamos a xenofobia como nossa Palavra do Ano. O medo do "outro" foi um tema enorme em 2016, do Brexit à retórica de campanha do presidente Donald Trump. Em nosso anúncio, pedimos aos nossos leitores que refletissem sobre este termo em vez de celebrá-lo:
Apesar de ser escolhida como a Palavra do Ano de 2016, a xenofobia não deve ser celebrada. Pelo contrário, é uma palavra para refletir profundamente à luz dos acontecimentos do passado recente.
A palavra cúmplice surgiu em conversas em 2017 sobre aqueles que se manifestaram contra figuras e instituições poderosas e sobre aqueles que permaneceram em silêncio. Foi um ano de verdadeiro despertar para a cumplicidade em vários setores da sociedade, da política à cultura pop. De nosso anúncio de Palavra do Ano de 2017:
Nossa escolha para Palavra do Ano é tanto sobre o que é visível quanto sobre o que não é. É uma palavra que nos lembra que até a inação é um tipo de ação. A aceitação silenciosa do erro é como chegamos a esse ponto. Não devemos deixar que isso continue a ser a norma. Se fizermos isso, então somos todos cúmplices.